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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

Industrials | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Shanghai, China | NYSE
24.03 USD +0.20 (0.839%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 23.68 -0.35 (-0.350%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 7:42 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 6:06 a.m. EDT

The most compelling signal here is the convergence of deep value metrics with a recovering technical trend. Fundamentally, the company trades at a fraction of its sales (0.35x P/S) with robust profitability (17.9% margins) and a fortress-like balance sheet, yet it has suffered a multi-year price decline. This disconnect suggests the market has over-penalized the stock, creating a significant margin of safety. The recent price action confirms a shift in sentiment, with the stock breaking above its 50-day moving average and posting gains in the last two weeks, validating the 'value trap' narrative as false. While the statistical forecast model shows a slight negative lean (-0.43%), this is likely noise given the strong underlying fundamentals and the bullish options flow targeting higher prices. The dividend yield of nearly 3% provides a necessary floor, though it is not the primary driver of value. This is a high-conviction turnaround play where the business quality is exceptional, but the price history has lagged significantly behind.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.098101
AutoARIMA0.098292
AutoETS0.098350
AutoTheta0.098444

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 42%
H-stat 2.84
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.010
Excess Kurtosis 0.39
Attribute Value
Sector Industrials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-04-07
Last Dividend Date 2026-04-07
Debt to Equity Ratio 34.66
Revenue per Share 65.008
Market Cap 18,275,215,360
Trailing P/E 14.30
Forward P/E 10.57
Beta -0.22
Profit Margins 17.88%
Website https://www.zto.com

As of July 11, 2026, 6:06 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a moderate rebound, evidenced by heavy out-of-the-money call open interest at strikes 25.0 and 27.0 for December and January expirations. Conversely, put writers are heavily exposed at lower strikes (17.0-18.0) for long-dated contracts, suggesting a floor is expected around 18.00, while near-term put volume remains relatively thin compared to the call skew.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.59% 1.59% 2.73% 2.10%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-04-08 0.39 1.587948
2025-04-10 0.35 1.981880
2024-09-10 0.35 1.606979
2024-04-09 0.62 3.027344
2023-04-05 0.37 1.308808
2022-04-07 0.25 0.983478
2021-04-07 0.25 0.878426
2020-04-07 0.30 1.092101
2019-03-29 0.24 1.312910
2018-03-22 0.20 1.335114
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.69
dividendYield 2.9
exDividendDate 2026-04-08
trailingAnnualDividendRate 4.826
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.20251784
lastDividendValue 0.39
lastDividendDate 2026-04-08
dividendDate 2026-04-29

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.29440522
Address1 Building One
Address2 No. 1685 Huazhi Road Huaxin Town Qingpu District
All Time High 38.99
All Time Low 11.14
Ask 24.0
Ask Size 600
Average Analyst Rating 1.5 - Strong Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,396,220
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,648,649
Average Volume 1,648,649
Average Volume10Days 1,396,220
Beta -0.218
Bid 23.99
Bid Size 1,400
Book Value 12.358908
City Shanghai
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Country China
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 24.03
Current Ratio 1.64
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 24.185
Day Low 23.94
Debt To Equity 34.66
Display Name ZTO Express (Cayman)
Dividend Date 1,777,420,800
Dividend Rate 0.69
Dividend Yield 2.9
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,779,237,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,779,237,000
Earnings Growth 0.098
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.063
Earnings Timestamp 1,779,220,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,787,083,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,787,083,200
Ebitda 14,175,162,368
Ebitda Margins 0.2753
Enterprise To Ebitda 0.74
Enterprise To Revenue 0.204
Enterprise Value 10,484,068,352
Eps Current Year 13.81279
Eps Forward 2.2730231
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.68
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,775,606,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 23.23
Fifty Day Average Change 0.80000114
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.034438275
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 29.440521
Fifty Two Week High 26.2
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.17
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.08282443
Fifty Two Week Low 17.74
Fifty Two Week Low Change 6.290001
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.354566
Fifty Two Week Range 17.74 - 26.2
Financial Currency CNY
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,477,575,000,000
Float Shares 374,142,869
Forward Eps 2.2730231
Forward P E 10.571824
Free Cashflow 3,526,059,264
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 23,399
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.24892999
Gross Profits 12,817,441,792
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.02982
Held Percent Institutions 0.115830004
Implied Shares Outstanding 760,516,690
Industry Integrated Freight & Logistics
Industry Disp Integrated Freight & Logistics
Industry Key integrated-freight-logistics
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,775,606,400
Last Dividend Value 0.39
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Long Name ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 18,275,215,360
Market State POST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_403424124
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 9,205,737,472
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 17,981,685,986
Number Of Analyst Opinions 18
Open 24.04
Operating Cashflow 12,394,487,808
Operating Margins 0.19163
Payout Ratio 0.4095
Peg Ratio 1.28
Phone 86 21 5980 4508
Post Market Change -0.35000038
Post Market Change Percent -1.4565142
Post Market Price 23.68
Post Market Time 1,783,986,120
Previous Close 23.83
Price Eps Current Year 1.7396921
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.9443467
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.35493046
Profit Margins 0.17879
Quick Ratio 1.362
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key strong_buy
Recommendation Mean 1.5
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.200001
Regular Market Change Percent 0.839281
Regular Market Day High 24.185
Regular Market Day Low 23.94
Regular Market Day Range 23.94 - 24.185
Regular Market Open 24.04
Regular Market Previous Close 23.83
Regular Market Price 24.03
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 777,909
Return On Assets 0.0698
Return On Equity 0.14876
Revenue Growth 0.22
Revenue Per Share 65.008
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Industrials
Sector Disp Industrials
Sector Key industrials
Shares Outstanding 554,416,690
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0195
Shares Short 14,851,725
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 13,657,972
Short Name ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0294
Short Ratio 10.2
Source Interval 15
Symbol ZTO
Target High Price 32.57322
Target Low Price 23.13725
Target Mean Price 29.06753
Target Median Price 30.157515
Total Cash 30,486,306,816
Total Cash Per Share 39.774
Total Debt 21,793,163,264
Total Revenue 51,489,566,720
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 4.826
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.20251784
Trailing Eps 1.68
Trailing P E 14.303573
Trailing Peg Ratio 1.2785
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 22.2521
Two Hundred Day Average Change 1.7779007
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.07989811
Type Disp Equity
Volume 777,909
Website https://www.zto.com
Zip 201,708