Exagen Inc. (XGN)Healthcare | Diagnostics & Research | Vista, United States | NasdaqGM
4.14 USD
-0.31
(-6.966%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 4.22 +0.08 (1.932%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4:24 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:41 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Exagen is currently broken by a severe fundamental deterioration that outweighs the optimistic analyst targets. While the company recently reported record revenue growth, the underlying economics are catastrophic: it is burning cash aggressively with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, while posting massive losses on equity and assets. The balance sheet is fragile, carrying debt nearly equal to its cash reserves, which creates a precarious liquidity situation for a company with no earnings to service that debt. The price action confirms this distress. After a massive 262% spike last year, the stock has collapsed, trading significantly below its 200-day average. This is not a healthy correction; it is a market repricing of a business that is failing to generate sustainable value despite top-line growth. Short-term, the outlook remains bearish due to the persistent cash burn and the looming risk of dilution or balance sheet stress. The statistical forecast models also lean slightly negative, aligning with the fundamental concerns. Long-term, the rating is weak because the company has yet to demonstrate the ability to turn its revenue growth into profitability or secure a fortress balance sheet. Until the path to profitability is clear and the debt burden is managed, this remains a high-risk speculative vehicle rather than a viable investment. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_97_126 ✓ | 0.217143 |
| MSTL_97 | 0.242490 |
| MSTL_126 | 0.243703 |
| MSTL | 0.269686 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.271714 |
| AutoETS | 0.271716 |
| AutoTheta | 0.278180 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_97_126
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 33% |
| H-stat | 4.31 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.397 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.64 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 188.096 |
| Revenue per Share | 2.988 |
| Market Cap | 100,021,736 |
| Forward P/E | -9.63 |
| Beta | 2.02 |
| Profit Margins | -29.49% |
| Website | https://www.exagen.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:41 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for downside protection, evidenced by significant open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strike $2.50) compared to negligible call activity. Implied volatility is markedly higher for puts (8.7%) than calls (1.94%), indicating a market consensus expecting a sharp drop rather than a rally. The lack of call volume suggests no speculative capital is betting on an immediate recovery.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.3705799 |
| Address1 | 1,261 Liberty Way |
| Address2 | Suite C |
| All Time High | 29.858 |
| All Time Low | 1.3 |
| Ask | 5.32 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 4 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.0 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 216,140 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 395,062 |
| Average Volume | 395,062 |
| Average Volume10Days | 216,140 |
| Beta | 2.022 |
| Bid | 3.13 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 9 |
| Book Value | 0.599 |
| City | Vista |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 4.14 |
| Current Ratio | 3.469 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 4.43 |
| Day Low | 4.12 |
| Debt To Equity | 188.096 |
| Display Name | Exagen |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,502,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,502,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,502,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,846,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,846,600 |
| Ebitda | -11,842,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.17317 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -8.922 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.545 |
| Enterprise Value | 105,654,736 |
| Eps Current Year | -0.65 |
| Eps Forward | -0.43 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -0.9 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NGM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 4.1831 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.043100357 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.010303448 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -37.05799 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 12.23 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -8.09 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.6614882 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 2.59 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.55 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.5984556 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 2.59 - 12.23 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,568,899,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 13,807,348 |
| Forward Eps | -0.43 |
| Forward P E | -9.627907 |
| Free Cashflow | -9,068,375 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGM |
| Full Time Employees | 216 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.5832 |
| Gross Profits | 39,881,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.27908 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.52634 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 24,159,839 |
| Industry | Diagnostics & Research |
| Industry Disp | Diagnostics & Research |
| Industry Key | diagnostics-research |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Exagen Inc. designs, develops, and commercializes various testing products under the AVISE brand in the United States. The company enables healthcare providers to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of complex rheumatic, and autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The company's lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus platform, a cornerstone of the SLE assessment that begins by quantifying the level of CB-CAPs biomarkers (EC4d and BC4d) in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-Histone, a test for autoantibodies to histone proteins; AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; and AVISE Anti-CarP, a biomarker-driven RA prognostic test. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a blood test that employs CB-CAPs technology; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop T-Cell biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California. |
| Long Name | Exagen Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 100,021,736 |
| Market State | POSTPOST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_8444750 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -20,166,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 107,752,881 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 7 |
| Open | 4.43 |
| Operating Cashflow | -13,371,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.19726999 |
| Overall Risk | 8 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 760 560 1501 |
| Post Market Change | 0.07999992 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 1.9323654 |
| Post Market Price | 4.22 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,974,264 |
| Previous Close | 4.45 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -6.3692307 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | 6.911519 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 1.4626696 |
| Profit Margins | -0.2949 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.968 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.31 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -6.96629 |
| Regular Market Day High | 4.43 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 4.12 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 4.12 - 4.43 |
| Regular Market Open | 4.43 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 4.45 |
| Regular Market Price | 4.14 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,800 |
| Regular Market Volume | 281,277 |
| Return On Assets | -0.19131 |
| Return On Equity | -1.93578 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.117 |
| Revenue Per Share | 2.988 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24,159,839 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0337 |
| Shares Short | 813,368 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 864,742 |
| Short Name | Exagen Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0372 |
| Short Ratio | 2.77 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | XGN |
| Target High Price | 10.0 |
| Target Low Price | 8.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 8.57143 |
| Target Median Price | 8.0 |
| Total Cash | 21,513,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.89 |
| Total Debt | 27,146,000 |
| Total Revenue | 68,383,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -0.9 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 5.738225 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.5982251 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.27852255 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 281,277 |
| Website | https://www.exagen.com |
| Zip | 92,081 |