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Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)

Communication Services | Entertainment | New York, United States | NasdaqGS
28.75 USD -0.24 (-0.828%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 2:37 a.m. EDT

Warner Music Group presents a compelling dichotomy: a fundamentally improving business trading at a discount, yet weighed down by severe technical headwinds and aggressive short-term hedging. The company's fundamentals are surprisingly robust; revenue is growing at 16.7%, earnings are up nearly 40%, and the forward P/E of roughly 15 suggests the market has priced in significant future challenges despite the recent earnings beat. However, the stock is currently trapped in a downtrend, having failed to break above its 200-day average, and is facing a 'perfect storm' of negative sentiment. The options market is screaming caution, with a massive buildup of put options creating a heavy ceiling for the stock over the next two months. While the long-term thesis is solid given the growth trajectory and reasonable valuation relative to peers, the immediate path is fraught with resistance. Investors should view the current dip as a potential entry point for a swing trade targeting the $35 strike level, but patience is required to navigate the heavy put volume before the momentum can truly turn.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.069835
AutoTheta0.069885
AutoETS0.069895
AutoARIMA0.069895

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 48%
H-stat 0.57
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.165
Excess Kurtosis -1.23
Attribute Value
Sector Communication Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-25
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-25
Debt to Equity Ratio 508.333
Revenue per Share 13.661
Market Cap 14,996,446,208
Trailing P/E 34.23
Forward P/E 14.67
Beta 1.29
Profit Margins 6.34%
Website https://www.wmg.com

As of July 11, 2026, 2:37 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning heavily for downside protection in the near term, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts expiring in July and August compared to negligible call volume. This creates a 'put wall' around the $23-$26 range. Conversely, long-dated calls show significant open interest at strikes significantly above the current price ($35-$37), suggesting some investors are betting on a multi-month recovery driven by the earnings beat and strategic deals, though immediate volatility remains skewed toward the downside.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.55% 2.41% 2.29% 2.16%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-26 0.19 0.549768
2026-02-18 0.19 0.649573
2025-11-19 0.19 0.622951
2025-08-20 0.19 0.585697
2025-05-27 0.18 0.688073
2025-02-24 0.18 0.505760
2024-11-19 0.18 0.546614
2024-08-27 0.18 0.618557
2024-05-22 0.17 0.542092
2024-02-21 0.17 0.489349
2023-11-20 0.17 0.536616
2023-08-23 0.17 0.522273
2023-05-22 0.16 0.609524
2023-02-17 0.16 0.482073
2022-11-21 0.16 0.593032
2022-08-23 0.16 0.563579
2022-05-20 0.15 0.504032
2022-02-17 0.15 0.413109
2021-11-22 0.15 0.350140
2021-08-24 0.15 0.413337
2021-05-21 0.12 0.347222
2021-02-19 0.12 0.329852
2020-11-23 0.12 0.428418
2020-08-24 0.12 0.398671
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.76
dividendYield 2.64
exDividendDate 2026-05-26
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.75
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.02587099
lastDividendValue 0.19
lastDividendDate 2026-05-26
dividendDate 2026-06-02

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.051468134
Address1 1,633 Broadway
All Time High 50.23
All Time Low 21.57
Ask 37.12
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 4
Average Analyst Rating 1.6 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,332,600
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,446,060
Average Volume 2,446,060
Average Volume10Days 2,332,600
Beta 1.291
Bid 20.96
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 9
Book Value 1.415
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 8
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 28.75
Current Ratio 0.728
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 29.53
Day Low 28.68
Debt To Equity 508.333
Display Name Warner Music
Dividend Date 1,780,358,400
Dividend Rate 0.76
Dividend Yield 2.64
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,185,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,185,800
Earnings Growth 3.931
Earnings Quarterly Growth 4.083
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,184,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,786,046,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,786,046,400
Ebitda 1,583,000,064
Ebitda Margins 0.22205
Enterprise To Ebitda 12.274
Enterprise To Revenue 2.726
Enterprise Value 19,430,447,104
Eps Current Year 1.8448
Eps Forward 1.96019
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.84
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,779,753,600
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 30.0736
Fifty Day Average Change -1.3236008
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.044012047
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -5.1468134
Fifty Two Week High 35.42
Fifty Two Week High Change -6.669998
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.18831165
Fifty Two Week Low 23.34
Fifty Two Week Low Change 5.41
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.23179092
Fifty Two Week Range 23.34 - 35.42
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,591,191,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.07
Float Shares 144,607,473
Forward Eps 1.96019
Forward P E 14.666945
Free Cashflow 426,624,992
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 5,500
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.45799
Gross Profits 3,264,999,936
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00858
Held Percent Institutions 1.10066
Implied Shares Outstanding 521,615,528
Industry Entertainment
Industry Disp Entertainment
Industry Key entertainment
Ipo Expected Date 2,020-06-03
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,779,753,600
Last Dividend Value 0.19
Last Fiscal Year End 1,759,190,400
Long Business Summary Warner Music Group Corp. operates as a music entertainment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Recorded Music and Music Publishing segments. The company is involved in the discovery and development of recording artists, as well as related marketing, promotion, distribution, sale, and licensing of music created by recording artists; markets its music catalog through compilations and reissuances of previously released music and video titles, as well as previously unreleased materials. It also owns and acquires rights to approximately two million musical compositions comprising pop hits, American standards, folk songs, and motion picture and theatrical compositions, as well as administers the music and soundtracks of various third-party television and film producers and studios. In addition, the company conducts its operation primarily through a collection of record labels, such as Asylum, Big Beat, Canvasback, East West, Erato, FFRR, Nonesuch, Parlophone, Reprise, Sire, Spinnin' Records, and Warner Classics and Warner Records Nashville. Further, it markets, distributes, and sells music and video products to retailers and wholesale distributors; independent labels to retail and wholesale distributors; and various distribution centers and ventures, as well as retail outlets, online physical retailers, streaming services, and download services. Its catalog includes songwriters and composers; and various genres, including pop, rock, jazz, classical, country, R&B, hip-hop, rap, reggae, Latin, folk, alternative, blues, gospel, and other Christian music. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Long Name Warner Music Group Corp.
Market us_market
Market Cap 14,996,446,208
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_734078
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 447,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,790,726,400
Non Diluted Market Cap 14,999,054,507
Number Of Analyst Opinions 17
Open 29.01
Operating Cashflow 843,000,000
Operating Margins 0.15589
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 0.8929
Peg Ratio 0.53
Phone 212 275 2000
Previous Close 28.99
Price Eps Current Year 15.584345
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 20.318022
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 2.1035833
Profit Margins 0.0634
Quick Ratio 0.508
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 1.64706
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.24
Regular Market Change Percent -0.827871
Regular Market Day High 29.53
Regular Market Day Low 28.68
Regular Market Day Range 28.68 - 29.53
Regular Market Open 29.01
Regular Market Previous Close 28.99
Regular Market Price 28.75
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,800
Regular Market Volume 1,701,409
Return On Assets 0.07315
Return On Equity 0.50965
Revenue Growth 0.167
Revenue Per Share 13.661
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Communication Services
Sector Disp Communication Services
Sector Key communication-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 10
Shares Outstanding 146,235,215
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.020599999
Shares Short 10,747,653
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 9,422,325
Short Name Warner Music Group Corp.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0951
Short Ratio 4.89
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol WMG
Target High Price 46.0
Target Low Price 23.0
Target Mean Price 38.11765
Target Median Price 39.0
Total Cash 741,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 1.421
Total Debt 4,941,000,192
Total Revenue 7,128,999,936
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.75
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.02587099
Trailing Eps 0.84
Trailing P E 34.226192
Trailing Peg Ratio 0.5303
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 29.6221
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.87210083
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.029440884
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,701,409
Website https://www.wmg.com
Zip 10,019