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Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS)

Industrials | Airlines | Mexico City, Mexico | NYSE
7.88 USD -0.46 (-5.516%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:☆☆☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 3:09 a.m. EDT

The long-term investment case is severely compromised by a decade-long structural decline; the stock has lost nearly 74% of its value over nine years, with the last two years showing consecutive negative returns. Despite recent operational headlines citing improved traffic and load factors, the balance sheet remains fragile with debt-to-equity exceeding 1,800 and negative operating margins, preventing any meaningful re-rating of the business quality. The short-term outlook is similarly muted; while the stock has recently rallied off its lows, the statistical forecasting models offer no directional edge, and the massive disconnect between the bullish call flow and the lack of protective put buying suggests a speculative gamble rather than a high-probability trade. With no dividend support and a forward P/E that is mathematically undefined due to losses, there is no margin of safety here.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.089939
AutoETS0.089940
AutoTheta0.092207
MSTL0.104870

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 41%
H-stat 1.30
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.629
Excess Kurtosis 0.37
Attribute Value
Sector Industrials
Debt to Equity Ratio 1847.027
Revenue per Share 27.25
Market Cap 905,059,712
Forward P/E -460.82
Beta 0.92
Profit Margins -3.97%
Website https://www.volaris.com

As of July 11, 2026, 3:09 a.m. EDT: Speculator positioning is overwhelmingly skewed toward calls, particularly out-of-the-money strikes at $10 and $12.50 for September expiration, suggesting a bullish bet on a recovery or volatility expansion. However, this optimism is priced in with extremely low implied volatility relative to the deep in-the-money put options available at lower strikes, indicating a 'long gamma' setup where sellers profit if the stock stays flat or dips slightly, while buyers face significant cost if the anticipated surge fails to materialize.


Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.68376064
Address1 Tower B,13th Floor
Address2 Av. Antonio DovalI Jaime No. 70 Colonia Zedec Santa Fe AlcaldIa Alvaro ObregOn
All Time High 23.58
All Time Low 2.94
Ask 8.24
Ask Size 900
Average Analyst Rating 2.1 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 680,750
Average Daily Volume3 Month 600,619
Average Volume 600,619
Average Volume10Days 680,750
Beta 0.919
Bid 7.0
Bid Size 600
Book Value 1.8
City Mexico City
Country Mexico
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 7.88
Current Ratio 0.667
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 8.26
Day Low 7.85
Debt To Equity 1,847.027
Display Name Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,784,750,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,784,750,400
Earnings Timestamp 1,784,664,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,784,664,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,784,664,000
Ebitda 317,926,016
Ebitda Margins 0.101569995
Enterprise To Ebitda 12.411
Enterprise To Revenue 1.261
Enterprise Value 3,945,727,744
Eps Current Year -1.76429
Eps Forward -0.0171
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -2.6
Esg Populated 0
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 7.9504
Fifty Day Average Change -0.07039976
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.008854871
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 68.37607
Fifty Two Week High 10.8
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.92
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.27037036
Fifty Two Week Low 4.4
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.48
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.79090905
Fifty Two Week Range 4.4 - 10.8
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,379,511,000,000
Float Shares 86,255,174
Forward Eps -0.0171
Forward P E -460.8187
Free Cashflow 475,251,360
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 7,208
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.28375998
Gross Profits 888,238,016
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0
Held Percent Institutions 0.36138
Implied Shares Outstanding 114,855,290
Industry Airlines
Industry Disp Airlines
Industry Key airlines
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America. It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Long Name Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.
Market us_market
Market Cap 905,059,712
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_37855853
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common -124,239,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 905,059,685
Number Of Analyst Opinions 13
Open 8.25
Operating Cashflow 842,905,984
Operating Margins -0.027679998
Payout Ratio 0.0
Peg Ratio 13.48
Phone 52 55 5261 6400
Pre Market Change -0.22000027
Pre Market Change Percent -2.7918816
Pre Market Price 7.66
Pre Market Time 1,784,030,036
Previous Close 8.34
Price Eps Current Year -4.466386
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 4.377778
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.28913447
Profit Margins -0.039690003
Quick Ratio 0.494
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.07692
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.46
Regular Market Change Percent -5.51559
Regular Market Day High 8.26
Regular Market Day Low 7.85
Regular Market Day Range 7.85 - 8.26
Regular Market Open 8.25
Regular Market Previous Close 8.34
Regular Market Price 7.88
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,803
Regular Market Volume 585,095
Return On Assets 0.01365
Return On Equity -0.47615
Revenue Growth 0.136
Revenue Per Share 27.25
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Industrials
Sector Disp Industrials
Sector Key industrials
Shares Outstanding 114,855,290
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0159
Shares Short 1,826,674
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 2,307,296
Short Name Controladora Vuela Compania de
Short Percent Of Float 0.0202
Short Ratio 2.78
Source Interval 15
State DF
Symbol VLRS
Target High Price 12.0
Target Low Price 7.4
Target Mean Price 9.09231
Target Median Price 9.0
Total Cash 780,460,992
Total Cash Per Share 6.795
Total Debt 3,821,128,960
Total Revenue 3,130,237,952
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Eps -2.6
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 7.9063
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.026299953
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.0033264554
Type Disp Equity
Volume 585,095
Website https://www.volaris.com
Zip 1,210