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Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (VGIT)

Intermediate Government | Exchange Traded Fund | NasdaqGM
58.24 USD -0.22 (-0.376%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 58.42 +0.18 (0.309%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:54 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:39 a.m. EDT

The primary signal here is the stark divergence between the fund's structural reality and the speculative frenzy surrounding it. While the underlying asset—a Vanguard intermediate-term treasury fund—is currently trapped in a multi-year downtrend with a -10.35% cumulative loss over nine years, the options market is screaming 'bullish.' Speculators have piled into massive call positions at strikes above the current price, betting on a rapid recovery driven by anticipated rate cuts. This creates a dangerous dissonance: the price action is weak, lagging behind the 200-day average, yet the derivatives market is pricing in a sharp bounce. For income investors, the 3.89% yield is attractive but represents a lagging indicator of past performance rather than a guarantee of future stability. The statistical forecast model, surprisingly, aligns with the pessimistic price history, predicting a flat-to-negative drift (-0.06%) despite the high-confidence bullish options flow. This suggests the options buyers may be positioning for a short-term relief rally that could quickly reverse given the persistent headwinds in the bond market. The fund is not a 'value trap' in the traditional sense of a bad company, but rather a sector under siege where the thesis for capital preservation has failed for nearly a decade.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.006835
MSTL0.007165
AutoETS0.007432
AutoARIMA0.007432

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 80%
H-stat 4.04
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.636
Excess Kurtosis -0.59

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:39 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bullish on the near term, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money calls (92 contracts at $59 strike) compared to negligible put activity. This creates a heavy skew toward upside exposure, suggesting bets on a rate-cut rally or bond price appreciation. However, implied volatility remains extremely low (~5-9%), indicating a lack of fear regarding downside risks despite the aggressive call positioning.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.33% 3.82% 3.66% 3.03%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-03 0.195 0.334764
2026-07-01 0.188 0.320273
2026-06-01 0.194 0.329876
2026-05-01 0.187 0.316092
2026-04-01 0.196 0.330467
2026-03-02 0.175 0.290360
2026-02-02 0.191 0.320309
2025-12-18 0.194 0.323226
2025-12-01 0.186 0.309587
2025-11-03 0.191 0.318493
2025-10-01 0.184 0.306564
2025-09-02 0.193 0.322904
2025-08-01 0.193 0.323013
2025-07-01 0.188 0.316019
2025-06-02 0.194 0.329037
2025-05-01 0.187 0.314075
2025-04-01 0.196 0.330356
2025-03-03 0.173 0.292131
2025-02-03 0.191 0.328574
2024-12-24 0.190 0.328663
2024-12-02 0.182 0.309366
2024-11-01 0.186 0.318384
2024-10-01 0.180 0.298013
2024-09-03 0.185 0.308333
2024-08-01 0.185 0.311186
2024-07-01 0.177 0.306228
2024-06-03 0.179 0.309261
2024-05-01 0.174 0.304302
2024-04-01 0.176 0.303239
2024-03-01 0.150 0.256498
2024-02-01 0.167 0.280578
2023-12-22 0.167 0.282047
2023-12-01 0.158 0.270780
2023-11-01 0.149 0.262324
2023-10-02 0.138 0.243343
2023-09-01 0.135 0.233080
2023-08-01 0.128 0.220120
2023-07-03 0.128 0.219328
2023-06-01 0.129 0.216697
2023-05-01 0.122 0.204424
2023-04-03 0.125 0.208160
2023-03-01 0.115 0.198756
2023-02-01 0.122 0.203096
2022-12-23 0.119 0.202140
2022-12-01 0.110 0.184998
2022-11-01 0.106 0.183996
2022-10-03 0.097 0.165360
2022-09-01 0.091 0.151591
2022-08-01 0.088 0.141207
2022-07-01 0.079 0.128372
2022-06-01 0.073 0.119125
2022-05-02 0.065 0.106627
2022-04-01 0.068 0.108887
2022-03-01 0.059 0.090090
2022-02-01 0.063 0.096448
2021-12-23 0.429 0.644725
2021-12-01 0.061 0.090679
2021-11-01 0.061 0.091099
2021-10-01 0.061 0.090130
2021-09-01 0.065 0.095252
2021-08-02 0.067 0.097597
2021-07-01 0.061 0.090117
2021-06-01 0.064 0.094507
2021-05-03 0.062 0.091702
2021-04-01 0.066 0.098039
2021-03-01 0.060 0.088196
2021-02-01 0.068 0.098422
2020-12-23 0.557 0.803520
2020-12-01 0.070 0.100358
2020-11-02 0.075 0.107281
2020-10-01 0.076 0.107939
2020-09-01 0.082 0.116329
2020-08-03 0.085 0.120141
2020-07-01 0.086 0.122124
2020-06-01 0.095 0.134771
2020-05-01 0.093 0.132121
2020-04-01 0.107 0.151752
2020-03-02 0.108 0.157756
2020-02-03 0.116 0.172696
2019-12-23 0.120 0.182510
2019-12-02 0.116 0.175492
2019-11-01 0.121 0.181873
2019-10-01 0.118 0.176806
2019-09-03 0.122 0.181305
2019-08-01 0.124 0.187339
2019-07-01 0.126 0.191577
2019-06-03 0.131 0.199726
2019-05-01 0.124 0.193448
2019-04-01 0.128 0.199813
2019-03-01 0.119 0.188261
2019-02-01 0.124 0.195614
2018-12-24 0.127 0.201236
2018-12-03 0.118 0.189194
2018-11-01 0.122 0.197060
2018-10-01 0.118 0.190568
2018-09-04 0.117 0.187230
2018-08-01 0.110 0.176991
2018-07-02 0.100 0.160051
2018-06-01 0.104 0.166533
2018-05-01 0.101 0.162484
2018-04-02 0.104 0.165316
2018-03-01 0.091 0.145020
2018-02-01 0.090 0.143518
2017-12-26 0.105 0.164654
2017-12-01 0.095 0.148114
2017-11-01 0.090 0.139947
2017-10-02 0.100 0.154991
2017-09-01 0.090 0.138249
2017-08-01 0.086 0.132634
2017-07-03 0.090 0.139643
2017-06-01 0.086 0.132634
2017-05-01 0.089 0.137963
2017-04-03 0.080 0.124786
2017-03-01 0.087 0.136129
2017-02-01 0.072 0.112430
2016-12-22 0.176 0.276904
2016-12-01 0.080 0.124786
2016-11-01 0.079 0.119588
2016-10-03 0.085 0.127743
2016-09-01 0.082 0.123216
2016-08-01 0.084 0.125523
2016-07-01 0.084 0.125037
2016-06-01 0.084 0.127601
2016-05-02 0.086 0.130461
2016-04-01 0.078 0.117914
2016-03-01 0.088 0.133759
2016-02-01 0.075 0.114225
2015-12-23 0.136 0.211377
2015-12-01 0.088 0.135844
2015-10-01 0.092 0.140587
2015-09-01 0.085 0.130850
2015-08-03 0.086 0.132512
2015-07-01 0.091 0.141811
2015-06-01 0.086 0.132839
2015-05-01 0.086 0.132593
2015-04-01 0.082 0.125210
2015-03-02 0.089 0.137579
2015-02-02 0.085 0.128866
2014-12-23 0.097 0.151421
2014-12-01 0.093 0.143963
2014-11-03 0.085 0.132440
2014-10-01 0.084 0.131209
2014-09-02 0.079 0.123592
2014-08-01 0.082 0.128386
2014-07-01 0.085 0.133229
2014-06-02 0.081 0.126780
2014-05-01 0.081 0.127539
2014-04-01 0.069 0.109212
2014-03-03 0.081 0.126880
2014-02-03 0.079 0.123708
2013-12-24 0.263 0.419057
2013-11-29 0.074 0.115951
2013-10-31 0.071 0.110903
2013-09-30 0.066 0.103594
2013-08-30 0.069 0.109559
2013-07-31 0.068 0.106986
2013-06-28 0.072 0.113225
2013-05-31 0.066 0.102136
2013-04-30 0.069 0.104800
2013-03-28 0.064 0.097859
2013-02-28 0.070 0.107116
2013-01-31 0.071 0.109248
2012-12-24 0.759 1.161083
2012-11-30 0.077 0.115737
2012-11-02 0.077 0.116385
2012-09-28 0.079 0.118797
2012-08-31 0.084 0.126126
2012-07-31 0.080 0.120066
2012-06-29 0.084 0.126927
2012-05-31 0.087 0.131123
2012-04-30 0.090 0.137049
2012-03-30 0.083 0.128364
2012-02-29 0.090 0.137615
2012-01-31 0.093 0.140973
2011-12-23 0.226 0.346945
2011-11-30 0.101 0.154908
2011-10-31 0.099 0.152566
2011-09-30 0.101 0.154647
2011-08-31 0.106 0.162927
2011-07-29 0.108 0.170320
2011-06-30 0.107 0.172136
2011-05-31 0.109 0.174651
2011-04-29 0.109 0.177669
2011-03-31 0.113 0.186777
2011-02-28 0.101 0.166365
2011-01-31 0.110 0.179827
2010-12-27 0.728 1.196188
2010-11-30 0.110 0.174326
2010-10-29 0.111 0.173736
2010-09-30 0.108 0.169412
2010-08-31 0.110 0.172874
2010-07-30 0.117 0.187200
2010-06-30 0.106 0.170720
2010-05-28 0.122 0.200691
2010-04-30 0.105 0.175146
2010-03-31 0.074 0.124286
2010-02-26 0.089 0.148259
2010-01-29 0.077 0.128698
2009-12-24 0.160 0.271003
Additional Data
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0
dividendDate 2017-06-07
dividendYield 3.89

Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 70.86
All Time Low 56.07
Ask 58.46
Ask Size 9
Average Daily Volume10 Day 9,015,760
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,984,011
Average Volume 3,984,011
Average Volume10Days 9,015,760
Beta3 Year 0.78
Bid 58.44
Bid Size 59
Category Intermediate Government
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 58.535
Day Low 58.22
Dividend Date 1,496,793,600
Dividend Yield 3.89
Esg Populated 0
Exchange NGM
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 58.5532
Fifty Day Average Change -0.3131981
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.005348949
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -2.1917343
Fifty Two Week High 60.76
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.5199966
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.0414746
Fifty Two Week Low 58.18
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.060001373
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.0010313059
Fifty Two Week Range 58.18 - 60.76
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,258,986,600,000
Five Year Average Return -0.000669
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGM
Fullday Change -0.219997
Fullday Change Percent -0.376321
Fullday Price 58.42
Fund Family Vanguard
Fund Inception Date 1,258,588,800
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary Under normal circumstances, the fund invests at least 80% of its net assets, plus the amount of any borrowings for investment purposes, in the bonds that make up the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 3-10 Year Index. The fund invests by sampling the Target Index, meaning that it holds a range of securities that, in the aggregate, approximates the full Target Index in terms of key risk factors and other characteristics.
Long Name Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares
Market us_market
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_81834765
Nav Price 58.5
Net Assets 50,756,768,000.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.03
Open 58.45
Post Market Change 0.17999649
Post Market Change Percent 0.3090599
Post Market Price 58.42
Post Market Time 1,787,961,257
Previous Close 58.46
Price Hint 2
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.219997
Regular Market Change Percent -0.376321
Regular Market Day High 58.535
Regular Market Day Low 58.22
Regular Market Day Range 58.22 - 58.535
Regular Market Open 58.45
Regular Market Previous Close 58.46
Regular Market Price 58.24
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,200
Regular Market Volume 9,568,406
Short Name Vanguard Intermediate-Term Trea
Source Interval 15
Symbol VGIT
Three Year Average Return 0.0417566
Total Assets 50,756,767,744
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns -0.7162
Trailing Three Month Returns -0.7162
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 59.3904
Two Hundred Day Average Change -1.1503983
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.019370105
Type Disp ETF
Volume 9,568,406
Yield 0.038900003
Ytd Return -0.79899