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Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET)

Energy | Oil & Gas E&P | Calgary, Canada | NYSE
12.25 USD +0.33 (2.768%) ⇧ (Oct. 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 12.50 +0.25 (2.041%) ⇧ (Oct. 13, 2026, 7:34 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★⯪☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 4:35 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is defined by a stark contradiction between deteriorating fundamentals and aggressive speculative positioning. On the fundamental side, the business is in a multi-year structural decline, having lost over 80% of its value over the last nine years with three consecutive years of negative returns. The company is currently unprofitable with a negative return on equity, and while it generates free cash flow, the payout ratio exceeds 100%, meaning dividends are being funded by borrowing or dipping into reserves rather than core earnings. This makes the current yield unreliable and the long-term outlook precarious. However, the short-term narrative is being driven entirely by options flow. Traders are positioning heavily for a rally, with open interest in calls far outweighing puts. This suggests the market is pricing in a potential turnaround or a commodity price spike that could reverse the recent downtrend. The statistical forecast model offers no help, showing a neutral lean with low confidence, which highlights that the current price action is likely driven by sentiment and speculation rather than a clear mathematical edge. For investors, this is a high-risk scenario: the underlying business quality is weak, but the options market is screaming for a bounce.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.145942
AutoETS0.155400
AutoARIMA0.155402
AutoTheta0.202545

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 42%
H-stat 3.37
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.435
Excess Kurtosis -0.86
Attribute Value
Sector Energy
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-14
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-14
Debt to Equity Ratio 63.028
Revenue per Share 12.015
Market Cap 1,871,800,064
Forward P/E 16.18
Beta 0.76
Profit Margins -24.25%
Website https://www.vermilionenergy.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 4:35 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bullish on upside potential, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money calls (strikes 17.5 and 20.0) compared to negligible put volume. This creates a heavy skew toward calls, suggesting bets on a significant price recovery. However, there is a notable anomaly of new call volume at the 5.0 strike, which is deeply out-of-the-money relative to current prices, indicating some speculative positioning for a deep crash or a 'long shot' recovery play rather than a standard trend-following strategy.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.72% 2.48% 2.96% 2.32%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-15 0.097 0.720654
2026-06-15 0.097 0.918561
2026-03-13 0.099 0.839695
2025-06-30 0.095 1.304945
2025-03-31 0.091 1.123457
2024-12-31 0.084 0.893617
2024-09-27 0.089 0.925156
2024-06-28 0.088 0.799273
2024-03-27 0.088 0.718954
2023-12-28 0.076 0.625514
2023-09-28 0.074 0.502035
2023-06-29 0.075 0.604351
2023-03-30 0.074 0.584057
2022-12-29 0.059 0.332394
2022-09-28 0.058 0.268892
2022-06-29 0.047 0.235825
2022-03-30 0.048 0.225458
2020-03-30 0.082 2.949640
2020-02-27 0.173 1.682879
2020-01-30 0.174 1.130604
2019-12-30 0.176 1.091135
2019-11-26 0.173 1.189003
2019-10-30 0.176 1.199727
2019-09-27 0.173 1.020047
2019-08-29 0.173 1.189821
2019-07-30 0.175 1.007484
2019-06-27 0.175 0.810185
2019-05-30 0.170 0.798497
2019-04-29 0.171 0.664594
2019-03-28 0.172 0.698335
2019-02-27 0.175 0.681995
2019-01-30 0.173 0.708436
2018-12-28 0.169 0.825598
2018-11-29 0.173 0.681908
2018-09-27 0.177 0.545623
2018-08-30 0.178 0.554690
2018-07-30 0.176 0.512522
2018-06-28 0.172 0.485876
2018-05-30 0.177 0.512598
2018-04-27 0.179 0.533055
2018-03-28 0.167 0.535085
2018-02-27 0.170 0.502067
2018-01-30 0.174 0.459467
2017-12-28 0.170 0.467161
2017-11-29 0.168 0.484988
2017-10-30 0.168 0.496014
2017-09-28 0.172 0.477512
2017-08-29 0.172 0.544476
2017-07-26 0.172 0.516361
2017-06-28 0.163 0.505897
2017-05-18 0.158 0.476047
2017-04-20 0.159 0.445129
2017-03-20 0.161 0.442186
2017-02-21 0.164 0.405439
2017-01-20 0.161 0.388889
2016-12-20 0.160 0.368579
2016-11-18 0.159 0.400504
2016-10-20 0.164 0.398252
2016-09-20 0.163 0.473837
2016-08-18 0.167 0.428755
2016-07-20 0.165 0.502283
2016-06-20 0.167 0.503164
2016-05-20 0.164 0.503531
2016-04-20 0.170 0.549984
2016-03-18 0.166 0.528999
2016-02-19 0.157 0.612325
2016-01-20 0.147 0.666364
2015-12-18 0.154 0.585106
2015-11-19 0.162 0.549153
2015-10-20 0.165 0.449346
2015-09-18 0.163 0.509057
2015-08-20 0.164 0.497875
2015-07-20 0.166 0.481299
2015-06-18 0.176 0.387922
2015-05-20 0.176 0.396129
2015-04-23 0.176 0.361471
2015-03-27 0.172 0.400372
2015-02-25 0.172 0.391176
2015-01-28 0.173 0.407827
2014-12-29 0.185 0.370667
2014-11-26 0.191 0.371957
2014-10-29 0.193 0.332358
2014-09-26 0.194 0.324686
2014-08-27 0.196 0.300521
2014-07-29 0.199 0.300695
2014-06-26 0.201 0.291516
2014-05-28 0.198 0.294424
2014-04-28 0.195 0.298942
2014-03-27 0.194 0.308622
2014-02-26 0.194 0.343484
2014-01-29 0.193 0.351612
2013-12-27 0.188 0.323024
2013-11-26 0.190 0.341481
2013-10-29 0.192 0.349918
2013-08-28 0.191 0.356609
2013-07-29 0.195 0.365374
2013-06-26 0.190 0.390144
2013-05-29 0.192 0.375147
2013-04-26 0.196 0.397163
2013-03-26 0.200 0.390701
2013-02-26 0.200 0.395570
2013-01-29 0.200 0.392003
2012-12-27 0.190 0.371893
2012-11-28 0.190 0.380000
2012-10-31 0.190 0.396411
2012-09-26 0.190 0.405550
2012-08-29 0.190 0.405723
2012-07-27 0.190 0.404514
2012-06-27 0.190 0.437083
2012-05-29 0.190 0.443925
2012-04-26 0.190 0.403055
2012-03-28 0.190 0.397656
2012-02-27 0.190 0.390304
2012-01-27 0.190 0.419333
2011-12-28 0.190 0.423823
2011-11-28 0.190 0.447164
2011-10-27 0.190 0.389025
2011-09-28 0.190 0.459159
2011-08-29 0.190 0.425437
2011-07-27 0.190 0.376238
2011-06-28 0.190 0.382140
2011-05-27 0.190 0.368503
2011-04-27 0.190 0.358288
2011-03-29 0.190 0.371602
2011-02-24 0.190 0.370082
2011-01-27 0.190 0.400337
2010-12-29 0.190 0.401946
2010-11-26 0.190 0.467635
2010-10-27 0.190 0.489691
2010-09-28 0.190 0.528365
Additional Data
dividendYield 3.11
exDividendDate 2026-09-15
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.53
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.044463083
lastDividendValue 0.097
lastDividendDate 2026-09-15
dividendDate 2026-09-29

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.58090186
Address1 520 - 3rd Avenue S.W.
Address2 Suite 3500
All Time High 72.69
All Time Low 1.5
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 4,300
Audit Risk 6
Average Analyst Rating 2.3 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,025,650
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,410,057
Average Volume 1,410,057
Average Volume10Days 1,025,650
Beta 0.759
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 7,100
Board Risk 5
Book Value 9.960226
City Calgary
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country Canada
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 12.25
Current Ratio 0.999
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 12.31
Day Low 11.93
Debt To Equity 63.028
Display Name Vermilion Energy
Dividend Date 1,790,640,000
Dividend Yield 3.11
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,420,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,420,000
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,822,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,822,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,822,400
Ebitda 1,010,012,032
Ebitda Margins 0.54872
Enterprise To Ebitda 3.121
Enterprise To Revenue 1.713
Enterprise Value 3,152,752,128
Eps Current Year 0.49
Eps Forward 0.75699145
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -2.11
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 403 476 8100
Fifty Day Average 12.1072
Fifty Day Average Change 0.14280033
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.011794662
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 58.090187
Fifty Two Week High 14.82
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.5699997
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.17341429
Fifty Two Week Low 7.1
Fifty Two Week Low Change 5.15
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.7253521
Fifty Two Week Range 7.1 - 14.82
Financial Currency CAD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,284,471,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.33
Float Shares 151,356,040
Forward Eps 0.75699145
Forward P E 16.182482
Free Cashflow 871,867,648
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 636
Fullday Change 0.34000015
Fullday Change Percent 2.8523502
Fullday Price 12.25
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.63186
Gross Profits 1,163,046,016
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00227
Held Percent Institutions 0.65666
Implied Shares Outstanding 152,800,000
Industry Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Disp Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Key oil-gas-e-p
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Last Dividend Value 0.097
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta, Canada; southwest Bordeaux and Paris Basin in France; the Netherlands; Germany; Ireland; Croatia; Slovakia; Hungary; and Australia. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Long Name Vermilion Energy Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,871,800,064
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_880530
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common -450,057,984
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,790,098,435
Open 12.04
Operating Cashflow 920,958,976
Operating Margins 0.49258
Overall Risk 5
Payout Ratio 1.4167
Phone 403 269 4884
Post Market Change 0.25
Post Market Change Percent 2.0408163
Post Market Price 12.5
Post Market Time 1,791,934,448
Previous Close 11.92
Price Eps Current Year 25.0
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.2298918
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.0169123
Profit Margins -0.24252
Quick Ratio 0.652
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.27273
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.33
Regular Market Change Percent 2.76846
Regular Market Day High 12.31
Regular Market Day Low 11.93
Regular Market Day Range 11.93 - 12.31
Regular Market Open 12.04
Regular Market Previous Close 11.92
Regular Market Price 12.25
Regular Market Time 1,791,921,603
Regular Market Volume 1,427,580
Return On Assets 0.02258
Return On Equity -0.18537001
Revenue Growth 0.231
Revenue Per Share 12.015
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17502642
Sector Energy
Sector Disp Energy
Sector Key energy
Share Holder Rights Risk 1
Shares Outstanding 152,800,000
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.081
Shares Short 12,371,860
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 10,049,201
Short Name Vermilion Energy Inc.
Short Ratio 8.44
Source Interval 15
State AB
Symbol VET
Total Cash 81,770,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.535
Total Debt 1,362,722,048
Total Revenue 1,840,669,952
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.53
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.044463083
Trailing Eps -2.11
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 11.26075
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.9892502
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.08784941
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,427,580
Website https://www.vermilionenergy.com
Zip T2P 0R3