Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL)Financial Services | Mortgage Finance | Westlake Village, United States | NYSE
19.64 USD
-0.30
(-1.505%) ⇩
(April 21, 2026, noon
EDT)
Short-term: ★☆☆☆☆ | Long-term: ★★★★☆ | Dividends: ☆☆☆☆☆ |
Hot Take | April 19, 2026, 12:12 a.m. EDT
Velocity Financial is a deep-value mortgage finance play with exceptional profitability margins and a strong balance sheet, yet it is actively being shorted by speculators who are placing billions in zero-cost downside protection across strikes $2 below current prices. The stock sits in a 'value trap' trading range, crushed by insider selling and lack of forward momentum, making it a non-starter for capital gains in the short term but a potential multi-year grind up once the short squeeze or growth narrative resumes. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.074256 |
| AutoETS | 0.075969 |
| AutoTheta | 0.076565 |
| MSTL | 0.079071 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 45% |
| H-stat | 7.81 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.240 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.14 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 967.993 |
| Revenue per Share | 6.122 |
| Market Cap | 770,580,864 |
| Trailing P/E | 7.14 |
| Forward P/E | 5.88 |
| Beta | 0.76 |
| Profit Margins | 46.56% |
| Website | https://www.velfinance.com |
As of April 19, 2026, 12:12 a.m. EDT: Options flow shows a distinct divergence between call and put positioning. Calls are heavily weighted with low OI at current ATM (20.0 strike for near-term), suggesting a lack of bullish positioning despite the price being slightly below the 20-day highs. Conversely, puts show massive extreme OTM positioning (15.0 and 17.5 strikes), particularly expiring in May 2026, accounting for over 75% of total put volume. This indicates significant speculative text positioning, likely seeking zero-cost protection (naked straddles/strangles) rather than directional downside hedging, which is typical in low-liquidity or struggling stocks. The high IV on ATM puts (1.95x) contrasts with near-zero IV on long-dated calls, reflecting a market waiting for volatility rather than price appreciation.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.134889 |
| Address1 | 2,945 Townsgate Road |
| Address2 | Suite 110 |
| All Time High | 21.395 |
| All Time Low | 2.24 |
| Ask | 19.81 |
| Ask Size | 300 |
| Audit Risk | 8 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 93,090 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 118,401 |
| Average Volume | 118,401 |
| Average Volume10Days | 93,090 |
| Beta | 0.764 |
| Bid | 19.59 |
| Bid Size | 200 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | 17.26 |
| City | Westlake Village |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 2 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 19.64 |
| Current Ratio | 15.197 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,774,915,200 |
| Day High | 20.095 |
| Day Low | 19.64 |
| Debt To Equity | 967.993 |
| Display Name | Velocity Financial |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,773,262,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,773,262,800 |
| Earnings Growth | 0.555 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 0.69 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,773,259,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,777,579,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,777,579,200 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 32.063 |
| Enterprise Value | 7,233,950,720 |
| Eps Current Year | 2.77 |
| Eps Forward | 3.34 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 2.75 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 18.6068 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 1.0331993 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.05552805 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 13.488901 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 21.395 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -1.7550011 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.08202856 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 16.12 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 3.5199986 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.21836218 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 16.12 - 21.395 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,579,271,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 5,815,453 |
| Forward Eps | 3.34 |
| Forward P E | 5.8802395 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 364 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,775,001,600 |
| Gross Margins | 0.70676005 |
| Gross Profits | 159,455,008 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.029749999 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.98579 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 39,235,282 |
| Industry | Mortgage Finance |
| Industry Disp | Mortgage Finance |
| Industry Key | mortgage-finance |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties. The company also provides warehouse and other properties. It offers its products through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California |
| Long Name | Velocity Financial, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 770,580,864 |
| Market State | REGULAR |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_413547123 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,767,139,200 |
| Net Income To Common | 103,706,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 782,351,503 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 19.89 |
| Operating Cashflow | 18,161,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.61707 |
| Overall Risk | 1 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 818 532 3700 |
| Previous Close | 19.94 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 7.0902524 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.137891 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 3.4154835 |
| Profit Margins | 0.46563998 |
| Quick Ratio | 14.778 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.30000114 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -1.5045192 |
| Regular Market Day High | 20.095 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 19.64 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 19.64 - 20.095 |
| Regular Market Open | 19.89 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 19.94 |
| Regular Market Price | 19.64 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,776,787,221 |
| Regular Market Volume | 8,011 |
| Return On Assets | 0.01627 |
| Return On Equity | 0.17557 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.044 |
| Revenue Per Share | 6.122 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.34445214 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 39,235,281 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0306 |
| Shares Short | 1,199,241 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,772,150,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1,008,789 |
| Short Name | Velocity Financial, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.14060001 |
| Short Ratio | 9.44 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | VEL |
| Target High Price | 23.0 |
| Target Low Price | 20.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 21.66667 |
| Target Median Price | 22.0 |
| Total Cash | 92,169,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 2.349 |
| Total Debt | 6,540,615,168 |
| Total Revenue | 225,614,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 2.75 |
| Trailing P E | 7.141818 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 18.6611 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.978899 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.052456662 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 8,011 |
| Website | https://www.velfinance.com |
| Zip | 91,361 |