Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL)Financial Services | Mortgage Finance | Westlake Village, United States | NYSE
17.20 USD
-0.07
(-0.405%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 7:05 a.m. EDT
The most critical signal here is the complete absence of a dividend; the company offers zero income yield, which immediately disqualifies it for income-focused strategies. While the fundamentals look deceptively attractive on paper—trading at a low P/E of 6.2x and a price-to-book of roughly 0.98x—the balance sheet tells a different story. With a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 965%, the company is leveraged to an extreme degree, making it highly sensitive to interest rate shifts or a slowdown in mortgage origination. The recent price action shows a slight bounce off the lows, but the heavy put option positioning suggests smart money is still worried about the path ahead. The statistical forecast model is too weak to provide a directional edge, and the lack of analyst consensus (only 3 opinions) adds to the uncertainty. This is a high-risk turnaround play where the cheap valuation is likely a discount for the massive debt load, rather than a margin of safety. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_97 ✓ | 0.057949 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.069599 |
| AutoETS | 0.072800 |
| MSTL | 0.074646 |
| MSTL_97_126 | 0.077400 |
| AutoTheta | 0.081247 |
| MSTL_126 | 0.095375 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_97
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 45% |
| H-stat | 3.83 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.058 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.17 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 965.239 |
| Revenue per Share | 7.131 |
| Market Cap | 675,190,848 |
| Trailing P/E | 6.12 |
| Forward P/E | 5.73 |
| Beta | 0.70 |
| Profit Margins | 39.96% |
| Website | https://www.velfinance.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 7:05 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioned for downside protection, with massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 17.5 and 20.0) expiring in August and November. This creates a 'put wall' suggesting a fear of further decline or a lack of confidence in a quick recovery. Conversely, call activity is sparse and concentrated far out-of-the-money (30 strike), indicating minimal speculative appetite for immediate upside despite the low implied volatility on near-term calls.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.050055027 |
| Address1 | 2,945 Townsgate Road |
| Address2 | Suite 110 |
| All Time High | 21.395 |
| All Time Low | 2.24 |
| Ask | 27.27 |
| Ask Size | 300 |
| Audit Risk | 8 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 124,680 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 84,006 |
| Average Volume | 84,006 |
| Average Volume10Days | 124,680 |
| Beta | 0.695 |
| Bid | 6.98 |
| Bid Size | 200 |
| Board Risk | 4 |
| Book Value | 17.672 |
| City | Westlake Village |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 1 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 17.2 |
| Current Ratio | 27.351 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 17.54 |
| Day Low | 17.1101 |
| Debt To Equity | 965.239 |
| Display Name | Velocity Financial |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,101,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,101,200 |
| Earnings Growth | 0.113 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 0.184 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,097,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,786,046,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,786,046,400 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 26.925 |
| Enterprise Value | 7,312,691,712 |
| Eps Current Year | 2.71 |
| Eps Forward | 3.0 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 2.81 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 17.8024 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.6023998 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.033838123 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -5.0055027 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 21.395 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -4.1949997 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.19607383 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 16.19 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.0100002 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.0623842 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 16.19 - 21.395 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,579,271,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 5,034,490 |
| Forward Eps | 3.0 |
| Forward P E | 5.7333336 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 364 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.74859 |
| Gross Profits | 203,308,992 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.03 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.98888 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 39,255,281 |
| Industry | Mortgage Finance |
| Industry Disp | Mortgage Finance |
| Industry Key | mortgage-finance |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Velocity Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate finance company in the United States. The company originates, securitizes, and manages a portfolio of loans, which are secured by real estate, including investor loans unit residential rental properties; residential rental properties office; and loans for multi-family, mixed use, and commercial properties. The company also provides warehouse and other properties. It offers its products through a network of independent mortgage brokers and direct borrower relationships. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California |
| Long Name | Velocity Financial, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 675,190,848 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_413547123 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | 107,103,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 675,190,833 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 17.4 |
| Operating Cashflow | 26,711,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.38222 |
| Overall Risk | 2 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 818 532 3700 |
| Previous Close | 17.27 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 6.3468637 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 0.9732911 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 2.4860666 |
| Profit Margins | 0.39960998 |
| Quick Ratio | 27.109 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.0699997 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.405325 |
| Regular Market Day High | 17.54 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 17.1101 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 17.1101 - 17.54 |
| Regular Market Open | 17.4 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 17.27 |
| Regular Market Price | 17.2 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,803 |
| Regular Market Volume | 73,651 |
| Return On Assets | 0.01602 |
| Return On Equity | 0.17208 |
| Revenue Growth | 1.321 |
| Revenue Per Share | 7.131 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 39,255,281 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0354 |
| Shares Short | 1,391,231 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1,404,510 |
| Short Name | Velocity Financial, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.2746 |
| Short Ratio | 14.12 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | VEL |
| Target High Price | 23.5 |
| Target Low Price | 20.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 21.83333 |
| Target Median Price | 22.0 |
| Total Cash | 87,518,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 2.229 |
| Total Debt | 6,721,963,008 |
| Total Revenue | 271,590,016 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 2.81 |
| Trailing P E | 6.120997 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 18.598 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.3979988 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.07516931 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 73,651 |
| Website | https://www.velfinance.com |
| Zip | 91,361 |