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Vale S.A. (VALE)

Basic Materials | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Rio De Janeiro, Brazil | NYSE
15.03 USD -0.28 (-1.829%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 15.10 +0.07 (0.466%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:30 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | Aug. 22, 2026, 3:38 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Vale is currently fractured by a severe disconnect between its valuation metrics and its recent performance reality. While the forward P/E of 7.2x looks attractive on paper, it is misleading because the company is trapped in a multi-year structural decline, having posted four consecutive years of negative annual returns. This persistent downward trajectory suggests the market has already priced in a deteriorating business quality, rendering the low multiple a reflection of risk rather than a margin of safety. The situation is further complicated by a payout ratio exceeding 100%, indicating the dividend is being funded by borrowing or selling assets rather than organic earnings, which makes the 8.4% yield a dangerous trap for income investors. On the short end, the options market confirms this pessimism; the sheer volume of put buying and the heavy open interest at lower strikes indicate that speculators are aggressively hedging against further drops. Until the company demonstrates a reversal in its multi-year decline and stabilizes its earnings generation, the outlook remains bearish.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.085557
AutoETS0.085834
AutoARIMA0.085834
AutoTheta0.102294

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 45%
H-stat 4.16
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.239
Excess Kurtosis 0.43
Attribute Value
Sector Basic Materials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-12
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-12
Debt to Equity Ratio 54.603
Revenue per Share 51.114
Market Cap 63,964,110,848
Trailing P/E 30.67
Forward P/E 7.46
Beta 0.75
Profit Margins 4.75%
Website https://vale.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 3:38 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 10.0, 12.5, 13.0) and significant volume spikes in put writing. While there is some call activity near the current price, the overwhelming gamma exposure and option flow suggest a 'bearish hedge' strategy rather than a bullish bet, with traders betting on continued weakness or volatility expansion to the downside.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.90% 8.16% 9.29% 10.63%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-13 0.400000 2.898551
2025-12-12 0.668000 5.263988
2025-08-13 0.347000 3.442460
2025-03-10 0.373000 4.036797
2024-12-12 0.091000 0.960929
2024-08-05 0.371000 3.728643
2024-03-12 0.544000 4.455364
2023-11-22 0.469000 3.083498
2023-08-14 0.406000 3.255814
2023-03-14 0.354000 2.220828
2022-12-13 0.056000 0.346106
2022-08-12 0.687000 5.051470
2022-03-09 0.725000 3.872863
2021-09-23 1.559000 10.519568
2021-06-24 0.436000 1.925795
2021-03-05 0.767000 4.323563
2020-09-22 0.457000 4.295113
2019-12-27 0.347000 2.624811
2018-08-03 0.398000 2.804792
2018-03-07 0.151000 1.149163
2017-12-22 0.127000 1.065436
2017-04-24 0.288000 3.291429
2016-12-02 0.049000 0.580569
2015-10-16 0.097000 2.025052
2015-04-15 0.194000 3.134087
2014-10-17 0.140000 1.279708
2014-04-15 0.407000 2.928058
2013-10-18 0.437000 2.712601
2013-04-17 0.437000 2.762326
2012-10-17 0.589000 3.170075
2012-04-16 0.589000 2.594714
2011-10-17 0.579000 2.483913
2011-08-12 0.575000 2.165725
2011-04-14 0.383000 1.173047
2011-01-14 0.189000 0.522822
2010-10-15 0.331000 1.023500
2010-04-15 0.240000 0.705882
2009-10-16 0.240000 0.902935
2009-04-16 0.240000 1.467890
2008-10-21 0.303000 2.309451
2008-04-11 0.259000 0.723060
2007-10-19 0.171000 0.514131
2007-04-17 0.169500 0.811393
2006-10-20 0.133500 1.112500
2006-04-13 0.133750 1.116444
2005-10-17 0.173750 1.761277
2005-04-15 0.108750 1.613502
2004-10-14 0.112500 2.214567
2004-04-15 0.059583 1.368152
2003-10-16 0.043333 1.112291
2003-08-28 0.054167 1.740305
2003-04-17 0.044167 1.888824
2002-11-14 0.062667 2.864777
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.2
dividendYield 7.81
exDividendDate 2026-08-13
trailingAnnualDividendRate 5.477
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.35774004
lastDividendValue 0.4
lastDividendDate 2026-08-13
dividendDate 2026-09-10

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.50540805
Address1 Praia de Botafogo, 186
Address2 Rooms 1801 to 2001
All Time High 44.15
All Time Low 1.804167
Ask 15.07
Ask Size 18,200
Average Analyst Rating 2.3 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 26,098,700
Average Daily Volume3 Month 23,273,735
Average Volume 23,273,735
Average Volume10Days 26,098,700
Beta 0.748
Bid 14.95
Bid Size 34,800
Book Value 9.102974
City Rio De Janeiro
Country Brazil
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 15.03
Current Ratio 1.192
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 15.31
Day Low 14.89
Debt To Equity 54.603
Display Name Vale
Dividend Date 1,788,998,400
Dividend Rate 1.2
Dividend Yield 7.81
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,506,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,506,400
Earnings Growth -0.435
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.433
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,441,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Ebitda 77,332,996,096
Ebitda Margins 0.35463002
Enterprise To Ebitda 1.926
Enterprise To Revenue 0.683
Enterprise Value 148,961,116,160
Eps Current Year 1.88955
Eps Forward 2.01355
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.49
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,786,579,200
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 14.683
Fifty Day Average Change 0.34700012
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.023632782
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 50.540806
Fifty Two Week High 17.94
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.9100008
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.1622074
Fifty Two Week Low 10.08
Fifty Two Week Low Change 4.95
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.4910714
Fifty Two Week Range 10.08 - 17.94
Financial Currency BRL
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,016,721,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 9.33
Float Shares 3,964,157,917
Forward Eps 2.01355
Forward P E 7.4644284
Free Cashflow 13,308,999,680
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 65,805
Fullday Change -0.280001
Fullday Change Percent -1.82887
Fullday Price 15.1
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.34924
Gross Profits 76,158,001,152
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.000030000001
Held Percent Institutions 0.20847
Implied Shares Outstanding 4,255,762,807
Industry Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Disp Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Key other-industrial-metals-mining
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,786,579,200
Last Dividend Value 0.4
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,189,641,600
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Long Name Vale S.A.
Market us_market
Market Cap 63,964,110,848
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_874225
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 10,369,000,448
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 65,368,397,728
Number Of Analyst Opinions 25
Open 15.275
Operating Cashflow 50,598,998,016
Operating Margins 0.21955
Payout Ratio 1.5907
Peg Ratio 0.36
Phone 55 21 3485 5000
Post Market Change 0.07000065
Post Market Change Percent 0.46573952
Post Market Price 15.1
Post Market Time 1,787,959,805
Previous Close 15.31
Price Eps Current Year 7.9542747
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.6511087
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.29332054
Profit Margins 0.04755
Quick Ratio 0.681
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.32
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.280001
Regular Market Change Percent -1.82887
Regular Market Day High 15.31
Regular Market Day Low 14.89
Regular Market Day Range 14.89 - 15.31
Regular Market Open 15.275
Regular Market Previous Close 15.31
Regular Market Price 15.03
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,202
Regular Market Volume 36,621,049
Return On Assets 0.07915
Return On Equity 0.041149996
Revenue Growth 0.064
Revenue Per Share 51.114
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20504117
Sector Basic Materials
Sector Disp Basic Materials
Sector Key basic-materials
Shares Outstanding 4,255,762,795
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0109
Shares Short 46,429,068
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 58,497,355
Short Name VALE S.A.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0109
Short Ratio 2.09
Source Interval 15
State RJ
Symbol VALE
Target High Price 21.0
Target Low Price 12.0
Target Mean Price 16.736
Target Median Price 16.5
Total Cash 29,841,999,872
Total Cash Per Share 7.012
Total Debt 110,007,001,088
Total Revenue 218,068,992,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 5.477
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.35774004
Trailing Eps 0.49
Trailing P E 30.673468
Trailing Peg Ratio 0.358
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 15.08295
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.052949905
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.0035105802
Type Disp Equity
Volume 36,621,049
Website https://vale.com
Zip 22,250-145