Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)Financial Services | Credit Services | San Mateo, United States | NasdaqGS
23.83 USD
+0.08
(0.337%)
⇧
(Oct. 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 8:27 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Upstart is currently fractured between a compelling fundamental turnaround story and a deeply distressed technical reality. Fundamentally, the company is showing signs of life with revenue growing 42% year-over-year and earnings exploding 211%, while the forward P/E of roughly 7x suggests the market has priced in a catastrophic failure that may not have occurred. However, the price action tells a different story; the stock has erased nearly 84% of its value over the last four years, and despite recent quarterly gains, the momentum remains heavily weighted toward the downside with the price trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day averages. The options market confirms this tension, with traders buying deep out-of-the-money calls for a moonshot recovery while simultaneously placing heavy hedges at lower levels, creating a volatile environment unsuitable for standard investors. Until the price can close above its moving averages and the multi-year downtrend is decisively broken, the risk of further capital preservation issues outweighs the potential for immediate recovery. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.074598 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.080117 |
| AutoETS | 0.080163 |
| MSTL | 0.080339 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 38% |
| H-stat | 1.34 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.170 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.13 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 258.011 |
| Revenue per Share | 13.264 |
| Market Cap | 2,280,806,656 |
| Trailing P/E | 47.66 |
| Forward P/E | 6.86 |
| Beta | 2.43 |
| Profit Margins | 4.69% |
| Website | https://www.upstart.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 8:27 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for extreme volatility rather than a specific directional outcome. Call Open Interest is heavily skewed out-of-the-money (OTM) with massive walls at strikes like $100 and $135, suggesting a speculative bet on a massive multi-bagger or a 'lottery ticket' scenario. Conversely, Put Open Interest shows significant concentration at lower strikes ($17.50, $20.00) and a notable volume spike at $65.00, indicating hedging against a crash or a contrarian bet on further downside. The implied volatility surface is distorted, with deep OTM strikes carrying premiums far exceeding the ATM level, reflecting a market pricing in binary, high-amplitude moves rather than steady appreciation.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.53495204 |
| Address1 | 2,950 South Delaware Street |
| Address2 | Suite 410 |
| All Time High | 401.49 |
| All Time Low | 11.93 |
| Ask | 32.0 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 3 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.2 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 3,998,070 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 4,277,334 |
| Average Volume | 4,277,334 |
| Average Volume10Days | 3,998,070 |
| Beta | 2.429 |
| Bid | 23.13 |
| Bid Size | 1 |
| Board Risk | 7 |
| Book Value | 8.196 |
| City | San Mateo |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 23.83 |
| Current Ratio | 10.455 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 23.95 |
| Day Low | 23.305 |
| Debt To Equity | 258.011 |
| Display Name | Upstart |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,793,736,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,793,736,000 |
| Earnings Growth | 2.112 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 1.95 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,793,709,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,709,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,709,000 |
| Ebitda | 115,055,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.08947 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 34.06 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 3.047 |
| Enterprise Value | 3,918,729,984 |
| Eps Current Year | 2.29516 |
| Eps Forward | 3.47596 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 0.5 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 27.0892 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -3.2591991 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.1203136 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -53.495205 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 55.22 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -31.390001 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.5684535 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 22.555 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.2749996 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.056528468 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 22.555 - 55.22 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,608,129,000,000 |
| Float Shares | 83,666,838 |
| Forward Eps | 3.47596 |
| Forward P E | 6.85566 |
| Free Cashflow | -132,382,752 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,405 |
| Fullday Change | 0.07990074 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.33529475 |
| Fullday Price | 23.9099 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.83043 |
| Gross Profits | 1,067,846,016 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.12936 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.62699 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 95,711,569 |
| Industry | Credit Services |
| Industry Disp | Credit Services |
| Industry Key | credit-services |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,020-12-16 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California. |
| Long Name | Upstart Holdings, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 2,280,806,656 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_306975137 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | 60,334,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 2,379,303,974 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 16 |
| Open | 23.4 |
| Operating Cashflow | -284,006,016 |
| Operating Margins | 0.07202 |
| Overall Risk | 7 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 833 212 2461 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.07990074 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 0.33529475 |
| Pre Market Price | 23.9099 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,791,964,808 |
| Previous Close | 23.75 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 10.382718 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 2.9075158 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 1.7737182 |
| Profit Margins | 0.046919998 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.388 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.1875 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.0799999 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.336842 |
| Regular Market Day High | 23.95 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 23.305 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 23.305 - 23.95 |
| Regular Market Open | 23.4 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 23.75 |
| Regular Market Price | 23.83 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,791,921,600 |
| Regular Market Volume | 3,123,987 |
| Return On Assets | 0.0198 |
| Return On Equity | 0.07941 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.423 |
| Revenue Per Share | 13.264 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.17502642 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 95,711,569 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.2936 |
| Shares Short | 28,569,957 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 25,946,861 |
| Short Name | Upstart Holdings, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.33580002 |
| Short Ratio | 6.55 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | UPST |
| Target High Price | 61.0 |
| Target Low Price | 20.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 39.3125 |
| Target Median Price | 38.5 |
| Total Cash | 457,843,008 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 4.705 |
| Total Debt | 2,057,602,944 |
| Total Revenue | 1,285,890,048 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 0.5 |
| Trailing P E | 47.66 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 31.552626 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -7.7226257 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.24475382 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 3,123,987 |
| Website | https://www.upstart.com |
| Zip | 94,403 |