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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

Industrials | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Atlanta, United States | NYSE
94.79 USD -0.55 (-0.582%) ⇩ (Oct. 13, 2026, 10:11 a.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★☆☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 7:56 a.m. EDT

UPS presents a classic value trap scenario where a high dividend yield masks deteriorating earnings quality. While the forward P/E looks attractive at 11.7x, the company is currently contracting earnings by nearly 53% annually, and the price has been in a four-year downtrend. The payout ratio exceeding 100% signals that the dividend is not fully covered by earnings, creating a significant risk of a future cut. Although the stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the options market is heavily weighted toward downside protection at the $90 strike, confirming investor fear. For a long-term holder, the structural decline and unsustainable dividend outweigh the valuation discount.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.037167
MSTL0.038211
AutoARIMA0.040828
AutoETS0.040828

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 42%
H-stat 18.97
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.143
Excess Kurtosis -0.77
Attribute Value
Sector Industrials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-16
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-16
Debt to Equity Ratio 189.9
Revenue per Share 105.862
Market Cap 80,641,335,296
Trailing P/E 17.62
Forward P/E 11.76
Beta 1.05
Profit Margins 5.08%
Website https://www.ups.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 7:56 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with significant open interest in puts at the $90 and $95 strikes, suggesting a floor is expected there. Meanwhile, call open interest clusters around $105 to $110, indicating a belief in potential volatility or a rebound to historical levels. Implied volatility is elevated across the board, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the earnings outlook and operational challenges.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.61% 6.49% 5.77% 4.75%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-17 1.64 1.607528
2026-05-18 1.64 1.716738
2026-02-17 1.64 1.419790
2025-11-17 1.64 1.741161
2025-08-18 1.64 1.895735
2025-05-19 1.64 1.654727
2025-02-18 1.64 1.420898
2024-11-18 1.63 1.206246
2024-08-19 1.63 1.264056
2024-05-10 1.63 1.106060
2024-02-16 1.63 1.098309
2023-11-10 1.62 1.172978
2023-08-11 1.62 0.917223
2023-05-12 1.62 0.961424
2023-02-17 1.62 0.884231
2022-11-10 1.52 0.882080
2022-08-12 1.52 0.741861
2022-05-13 1.52 0.853741
2022-02-18 1.52 0.726022
2021-11-19 1.02 0.489279
2021-08-20 1.02 0.527841
2021-05-21 1.02 0.481427
2021-02-19 1.02 0.635356
2020-11-12 1.01 0.619214
2020-08-21 1.01 0.635100
2020-05-22 1.01 1.044251
2020-02-24 1.01 1.025485
2019-11-15 0.96 0.775883
2019-08-16 0.96 0.832611
2019-05-17 0.96 0.965795
2019-02-25 0.96 0.865957
2018-11-16 0.91 0.826596
2018-08-17 0.91 0.747126
2018-05-18 0.91 0.788698
2018-02-16 0.91 0.855263
2017-11-10 0.83 0.733021
2017-08-10 0.83 0.748287
2017-05-11 0.83 0.796927
2017-02-16 0.83 0.774109
2016-11-09 0.78 0.692103
2016-08-12 0.78 0.709672
2016-05-12 0.78 0.766284
2016-02-18 0.78 0.800328
2015-11-12 0.73 0.711501
2015-08-13 0.73 0.716811
2015-05-14 0.73 0.725142
2015-02-19 0.73 0.717797
2014-11-13 0.67 0.621579
2014-08-14 0.67 0.697408
2014-05-15 0.67 0.666932
2014-02-20 0.67 0.700324
2013-11-14 0.62 0.614044
2013-08-15 0.62 0.721266
2013-05-09 0.62 0.702709
2013-02-21 0.62 0.750514
2012-11-15 0.57 0.810465
2012-08-16 0.57 0.746366
2012-05-10 0.57 0.744028
2012-02-16 0.57 0.742574
2011-11-09 0.52 0.753732
2011-08-18 0.52 0.834939
2011-05-12 0.52 0.699489
2011-02-10 0.52 0.695466
2010-11-10 0.47 0.690466
2010-08-12 0.47 0.728908
2010-05-13 0.47 0.703698
2010-02-11 0.47 0.828632
2009-11-12 0.45 0.791835
2009-08-20 0.45 0.852757
2009-05-14 0.45 0.861079
2009-02-19 0.45 1.048218
2008-11-13 0.45 0.816845
2008-08-21 0.45 0.723589
2008-05-15 0.45 0.630605
2008-02-07 0.45 0.627265
2007-11-15 0.42 0.574555
2007-09-06 0.42 0.559329
2007-05-17 0.42 0.598717
2007-02-15 0.42 0.563910
2006-11-22 0.38 0.480891
2006-08-17 0.38 0.530356
2006-05-11 0.38 0.464377
2006-02-16 0.38 0.499343
2005-11-23 0.33 0.416561
2005-08-18 0.33 0.459738
2005-05-12 0.33 0.454921
2005-02-17 0.33 0.424874
2004-11-24 0.28 0.335289
2004-08-19 0.28 0.395760
2004-05-13 0.28 0.404215
2004-02-19 0.28 0.397614
2003-11-20 0.25 0.347560
2003-08-21 0.25 0.392835
2003-05-15 0.21 0.332805
2003-02-20 0.21 0.361011
2002-11-21 0.19 0.297107
2002-08-22 0.19 0.287835
2002-05-23 0.19 0.325175
2002-02-25 0.19 0.332750
2001-11-23 0.19 0.346715
2001-08-24 0.19 0.339346
2001-05-25 0.19 0.322964
2001-02-22 0.19 0.325956
2000-11-22 0.17 0.282451
2000-08-24 0.17 0.301218
2000-05-25 0.17 0.288747
2000-02-24 0.17 0.314451
1999-11-24 0.30 0.443213
Additional Data
dividendRate 6.56
dividendYield 6.88
exDividendDate 2026-08-17
trailingAnnualDividendRate 6.56
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.06880638
lastDividendValue 1.64
lastDividendDate 2026-08-17
dividendDate 2026-09-03

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.13432479
Address1 55 Glenlake Parkway, N.E.
All Time High 233.72
All Time Low 37.99
Ask 94.99
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 6
Average Analyst Rating 2.2 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 4,552,330
Average Daily Volume3 Month 4,913,854
Average Volume 4,913,854
Average Volume10Days 4,552,330
Beta 1.046
Bid 94.9
Bid Size 100
Board Risk 8
Book Value 17.705
City Atlanta
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 8
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 94.785
Current Ratio 1.179
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 96.05
Day Low 94.7
Debt To Equity 189.9
Display Name United Parcel Service
Dividend Date 1,788,393,600
Dividend Rate 6.56
Dividend Yield 6.88
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,793,131,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,793,131,200
Earnings Growth -0.53
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.529
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,104,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,104,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,104,200
Ebitda 12,083,999,744
Ebitda Margins 0.13437
Enterprise To Ebitda 8.703
Enterprise To Revenue 1.169
Enterprise Value 105,165,512,704
Eps Current Year 7.20079
Eps Forward 8.05997
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 5.38
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,786,924,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 100.2482
Fifty Day Average Change -5.463196
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.054496698
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 13.432479
Fifty Two Week High 122.41
Fifty Two Week High Change -27.625
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.225676
Fifty Two Week Low 82.0
Fifty Two Week Low Change 12.785004
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.15591468
Fifty Two Week Range 82.0 - 122.41
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 942,244,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 3.97
Float Shares 748,466,589
Forward Eps 8.05997
Forward P E 11.75997
Free Cashflow 5,593,999,872
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 460,000
Fullday Change -0.5549927
Fullday Change Percent -0.58211946
Fullday Price 94.785
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.22413
Gross Profits 20,156,000,256
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00017000001
Held Percent Institutions 0.734
Implied Shares Outstanding 850,781,582
Industry Integrated Freight & Logistics
Industry Disp Integrated Freight & Logistics
Industry Key integrated-freight-logistics
Ir Website http://www.investors.ups.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=62900&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,786,924,800
Last Dividend Value 1.64
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Long Name United Parcel Service, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 80,641,335,296
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_238570
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 4,569,999,872
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 81,521,891,187
Number Of Analyst Opinions 26
Open 95.75
Operating Cashflow 8,867,000,320
Operating Margins 0.09052
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 1.2193
Peg Ratio 1.34
Phone 404 828 6000
Previous Close 95.34
Price Eps Current Year 13.163139
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 5.353573
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.8967123
Profit Margins 0.050819997
Quick Ratio 1.052
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.17241
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.5549927
Regular Market Change Percent -0.58211946
Regular Market Day High 96.05
Regular Market Day Low 94.7
Regular Market Day Range 94.7 - 96.05
Regular Market Open 95.75
Regular Market Previous Close 95.34
Regular Market Price 94.785
Regular Market Time 1,791,900,690
Regular Market Volume 352,303
Return On Assets 0.07278
Return On Equity 0.29602
Revenue Growth 0.076
Revenue Per Share 105.862
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17502642
Sector Industrials
Sector Disp Industrials
Sector Key industrials
Share Holder Rights Risk 10
Shares Outstanding 749,349,405
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.033299997
Shares Short 28,345,106
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 25,339,039
Short Name United Parcel Service, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0378
Short Ratio 6.02
Source Interval 15
State GA
Symbol UPS
Target High Price 135.0
Target Low Price 76.0
Target Mean Price 114.26923
Target Median Price 116.0
Total Cash 4,653,000,192
Total Cash Per Share 5.469
Total Debt 28,672,999,424
Total Revenue 89,929,998,336
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 6.56
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.06880638
Trailing Eps 5.38
Trailing P E 17.61803
Trailing Peg Ratio 1.3619
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 104.77845
Two Hundred Day Average Change -9.993446
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.09537692
Type Disp Equity
Volume 352,303
Website https://www.ups.com
Zip 30,328