Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)Healthcare | Biotechnology | Waltham, United States | NasdaqGS
7.28 USD
-0.25
(-3.320%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 4:28 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Upstream Bio is currently bifurcated between a speculative rebound narrative and deteriorating operational fundamentals. On the short end, the options market is screaming bullishness, with massive call volume at $10 and $12.50 strikes indicating a bet on a successful clinical readout or a market-driven re-rating. However, this optimism clashes violently with the reality of the business: the company is burning cash aggressively with operating cash flow of -$140 million and free cash flow of -$90 million. The recent news of mixed Phase 2 asthma trial results and a 40% intraday plunge suggests the 'reset' analysts are talking about may be a painful correction rather than a pivot to profitability. While the balance sheet remains robust with nearly $295 million in cash, the path to generating revenue is unclear, and the stock trades at a premium to sales despite negative earnings. The short-term bounce driven by options flow is likely a contrarian play on bad news, but the long-term outlook remains precarious given the lack of commercial traction and persistent losses. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.237515 |
| AutoTheta | 0.246657 |
| MSTL_87 | 0.250921 |
| AutoETS | 0.257677 |
| MSTL | 0.288948 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 25% |
| H-stat | 28.45 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.088 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.21 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.366 |
| Revenue per Share | 0.061 |
| Market Cap | 396,177,536 |
| Forward P/E | -2.52 |
| Website | https://upstreambio.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 4:28 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a significant upside move, evidenced by heavy out-of-the-money call volume and open interest at strikes of $10 and $12.50 for August and November expirations. This bullish flow contrasts sharply with the minimal put activity, suggesting traders are betting on a recovery following recent trial disappointments rather than hedging against further declines.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.35805625 |
| Address1 | 890 Winter Street |
| Address2 | Suite 200 |
| All Time High | 33.68 |
| All Time Low | 5.14 |
| Ask | 9.1 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 8 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 606,670 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 603,145 |
| Average Volume | 603,145 |
| Average Volume10Days | 606,670 |
| Bid | 5.38 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | 5.586 |
| City | Waltham |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 7.28 |
| Current Ratio | 23.138 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 7.525 |
| Day Low | 7.02 |
| Debt To Equity | 0.366 |
| Display Name | Upstream Bio |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,675,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,933,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,933,000 |
| Ebitda | -171,768,992 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -0.598 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 30.919 |
| Enterprise Value | 102,712,496 |
| Eps Current Year | -2.84132 |
| Eps Forward | -2.88784 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -2.9 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 7.7351 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.45509958 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.058835644 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -35.805626 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 33.68 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -26.4 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.783848 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 5.85 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.4300003 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.2444445 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 5.85 - 33.68 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,728,653,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 35,037,764 |
| Forward Eps | -2.88784 |
| Forward P E | -2.5209153 |
| Free Cashflow | -90,310,872 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 75 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 1.0 |
| Gross Profits | 3,322,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.14876 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.88879997 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 54,419,987 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on severe respiratory disorders. It offers verekitug, which is in Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and in Phase I clinical trial for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts. |
| Long Name | Upstream Bio, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 396,177,536 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_1773603947 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -156,764,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 396,177,498 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 8 |
| Open | 7.47 |
| Operating Cashflow | -139,962,000 |
| Operating Margins | -42.18085 |
| Overall Risk | 7 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 781 208 2466 |
| Previous Close | 7.53 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -2.5621893 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.3032582 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 119.25874 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 21.742 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.25 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -3.32005 |
| Regular Market Day High | 7.525 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 7.02 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 7.02 - 7.525 |
| Regular Market Open | 7.47 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 7.53 |
| Regular Market Price | 7.28 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,800 |
| Regular Market Volume | 262,578 |
| Return On Assets | -0.27763999 |
| Return On Equity | -0.41826 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.827 |
| Revenue Per Share | 0.061 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 54,419,986 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0754 |
| Shares Short | 4,105,630 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 3,640,867 |
| Short Name | Upstream Bio, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1163 |
| Short Ratio | 5.65 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | MA |
| Symbol | UPB |
| Target High Price | 75.0 |
| Target Low Price | 8.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 38.25 |
| Target Median Price | 39.5 |
| Total Cash | 294,579,008 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 5.413 |
| Total Debt | 1,114,000 |
| Total Revenue | 3,322,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -2.9 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 16.8307 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -9.550699 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.567457 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 262,578 |
| Website | https://upstreambio.com |
| Zip | 2,451 |