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Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - May (UMAY)

Defined Outcome | Exchange Traded Fund | Cboe US
38.05 USD -0.12 (-0.325%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 3:43 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 38.05 +0.01 (0.017%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4:10 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★★☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:☆☆☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 4:35 a.m. EDT

The ultra-short-term outlook is compelling due to a confluence of technical resilience and a high-confidence statistical forecast. The price has held firm near its 52-week high, trading comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which suggests strong underlying momentum. This technical strength is reinforced by a high-confidence forecasting model predicting a positive directional move over the next 45 days, making this a viable tactical entry for a momentum play. However, the long-term investment case is neutral because this is a leveraged buffer ETF designed for holding periods of weeks, not years; the lack of a multi-year price history prevents any assessment of sustained business quality or structural growth trends. Furthermore, there is no dividend component to consider, as the instrument distributes no income.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.005086
AutoTheta0.007744
MSTL0.010529
AutoETS0.011313

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 75%
H-stat 0.62
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.493
Excess Kurtosis -0.86
Attribute Value
Trailing P/E 26.55

Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 38.201
All Time Low 25.273
Ask 38.08
Ask Size 500
Average Daily Volume10 Day 11,870
Average Daily Volume3 Month 56,847
Average Volume 56,847
Average Volume10Days 11,870
Beta3 Year 0.3
Bid 38.01
Bid Size 4,900
Category Defined Outcome
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 38.06
Day Low 38.04
Dividend Yield 0.0
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.4330571
Esg Populated 0
Exchange BTS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 37.8004
Fifty Day Average Change 0.25439835
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.006730044
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 8.84651
Fifty Two Week High 38.201
Fifty Two Week High Change -0.14620209
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.0038271795
Fifty Two Week Low 34.95
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.1047974
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.0888354
Fifty Two Week Range 34.95 - 38.201
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,588,339,800,000
Five Year Average Return 0.0628511
Full Exchange Name Cboe US
Fund Family Innovator ETFs
Fund Inception Date 1,588,204,800
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in investments that provide exposure to the State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust. It is non-diversified.
Long Name Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - May
Market us_market
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_662538857
Nav Price 38.1318
Net Assets 143,571,920.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.79
Open 38.06
Phone (215) 979-3750
Post Market Change 0.0063972473
Post Market Change Percent 0.016813446
Post Market Price 38.0548
Post Market Time 1,783,973,405
Previous Close 38.179
Price Hint 2
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.124203
Regular Market Change Percent -0.325317
Regular Market Day High 38.06
Regular Market Day Low 38.04
Regular Market Day Range 38.04 - 38.06
Regular Market Open 38.06
Regular Market Previous Close 38.179
Regular Market Price 38.0548
Regular Market Time 1,783,971,813
Regular Market Volume 2,128
Short Name Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buf
Source Interval 15
Symbol UMAY
Three Year Average Return 0.110980794
Total Assets 143,571,920
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing P E 26.554977
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns 3.32253
Trailing Three Month Returns 3.32253
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 36.824783
Two Hundred Day Average Change 1.2300148
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.03340182
Type Disp ETF
Volume 2,128
Yield 0.0
Ytd Return 4.0601