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Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP)

Energy | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | São Paulo, Brazil | NYSE
6.00 USD

Short-term:★★★★☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 7:02 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is driven by a powerful divergence between technical momentum and statistical noise. While the short-term forecasting model whispers a negligible decline due to recent price consolidation, the broader trend is aggressively bullish. The stock has rallied nearly 25% over the last two months, breaking out above its 200-day average, and the options chain confirms this sentiment with heavy call buying at the $7.50 strike—a level representing a 25% gain from current prices. This speculative positioning suggests traders are betting on a continuation of the recovery rather than a reversal. Long-term, the business remains fundamentally sound but carries a heavy historical burden. The company boasts exceptional profitability metrics, including a 19% return on equity and robust free cash flow generation, supported by a fortress-like balance sheet relative to its peers. However, the multi-year price trajectory tells a different story: the stock has lost over 70% of its value since 2016, with the most recent annual period showing a steep 26% decline. This disconnect between the healthy underlying economics and the depressed share price creates a compelling case for a long-term hold, though the recent annual drop prevents a top-tier 'exceptional' rating. The market appears to be pricing in a slow grind rather than an immediate re-rating, despite the strong operational fundamentals.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoETS ✓0.125106
MSTL0.127143
AutoTheta0.134448
AutoARIMA0.208085

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoETS

Forecast Reliability
Score 41%
H-stat 24.43
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.095
Excess Kurtosis -1.49
Attribute Value
Sector Energy
Ex Dividend Date 2025-12-11
Last Dividend Date 2025-03-09
Debt to Equity Ratio 114.113
Revenue per Share 136.838
Market Cap 6,412,927,488
Trailing P/E 10.91
Forward P/E 10.35
Beta 0.31
Profit Margins 2.06%
Website https://www.ultra.com.br

As of July 11, 2026, 7:02 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a moderate upside move, evidenced by significant open interest in $7.50 calls across August and November expirations, which sits well above the current price. This bullish positioning contrasts sharply with the near-term statistical forecast, which predicts a negligible decline. The implied volatility skew shows elevated pricing for downside protection in the immediate term (July), suggesting a fear of a sharp drop, while longer-dated strikes show lower IV, indicating the market expects a smoother, perhaps volatile but upward-biased path over the next year.


Dividend Data

Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2025-03-10 0.078000 2.857143
2024-08-19 0.045000 1.013514
2024-03-08 0.080000 1.372213
2023-08-18 0.052000 1.432507
2023-02-24 0.019000 0.719697
2022-05-24 0.080000 2.807018
2022-03-04 0.033000 1.187050
2021-08-25 0.001000 0.033898
2021-08-20 0.038000 1.352313
2021-03-05 0.080000 2.346041
2020-02-28 0.055000 1.325301
2019-08-23 0.050000 1.295337
2019-03-01 0.093000 1.371681
2018-08-10 0.074500 1.396439
2018-03-02 0.139000 1.239411
2017-08-17 0.134500 1.216644
2017-03-02 0.142500 1.415094
2016-08-18 0.127500 1.065163
2016-02-25 0.099500 1.281391
2015-08-13 0.117000 1.246006
2015-03-05 0.124000 1.275720
2014-08-14 0.156000 1.301084
2014-02-27 0.149500 1.303400
2013-08-08 0.145000 1.232469
2013-02-28 0.167000 1.285110
2012-08-09 0.124500 1.092105
2012-02-23 0.148500 1.351228
2011-08-18 0.144500 1.696009
2011-03-03 0.140500 1.723926
2010-08-19 0.093875 1.375710
2010-03-04 0.081625 1.413726
2009-08-20 0.060750 1.385800
2009-03-19 0.047625 1.505929
2008-08-14 0.070375 1.603532
2008-02-28 0.130375 2.747629
2007-02-22 0.052750 1.574627
2006-08-10 0.050750 2.413793
2006-02-23 0.072750 3.621655
2005-08-11 0.038250 2.034574
2005-02-24 0.043750 2.000000
2004-08-17 0.054250 3.338462
2004-02-24 0.025750 1.718098
2003-08-14 0.020875 1.797632
2003-02-20 0.023750 2.918587
2002-08-15 0.016625 2.216667
2002-03-06 0.023125 2.138728
2001-08-31 0.189625 21.671429
2001-05-07 0.011375 1.056911
2001-04-25 0.008750 0.875000
2001-04-23 0.009375 0.961538
2001-01-03 0.018875 1.654795
2000-08-16 0.023125 1.691428
2000-03-07 0.018750 1.387283
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.32
dividendYield 5.27
exDividendDate 2025-12-12
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.3
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.21666665
lastDividendValue 0.078
lastDividendDate 2025-03-10
dividendDate 2025-12-26

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.9933555
Address1 Brigadeiro Luís Antônio Avenue, 1343
Address2 9th Floor Bela Vista
All Time High 13.97
All Time Low 0.61875
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 50,200
Average Analyst Rating 2.0 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,086,580
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,006,578
Average Volume 3,006,578
Average Volume10Days 3,086,580
Beta 0.308
Bid 3.0
Bid Size 18,500
Book Value 2.9502664
City São Paulo
Country Brazil
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 6.0
Current Ratio 1.666
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 6.07
Day Low 5.98
Debt To Equity 114.113
Display Name Ultrapar Participações
Dividend Date 1,766,707,200
Dividend Rate 0.32
Dividend Yield 5.27
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,162,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,162,400
Earnings Growth 1.674
Earnings Quarterly Growth 1.631
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,097,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,778,097,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,778,097,600
Ebitda 7,386,925,056
Ebitda Margins 0.050669998
Enterprise To Ebitda 3.034
Enterprise To Revenue 0.154
Enterprise Value 22,415,585,280
Eps Current Year 0.63937
Eps Forward 0.57948
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.55
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,765,497,600
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 5.3704
Fifty Day Average Change 0.62960005
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.11723523
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 99.33555
Fifty Two Week High 6.2
Fifty Two Week High Change -0.19999981
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.032258034
Fifty Two Week Low 2.8
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.2
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 1.1428572
Fifty Two Week Range 2.8 - 6.2
Financial Currency BRL
First Trade Date Milliseconds 939,303,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 3.61
Float Shares 633,073,634
Forward Eps 0.57948
Forward P E 10.354111
Free Cashflow 2,887,691,776
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 11,481
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.07127
Gross Profits 10,391,147,520
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0
Held Percent Institutions 0.06143
Implied Shares Outstanding 1,068,821,226
Industry Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Industry Disp Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Industry Key oil-gas-refining-marketing
Ir Website http://www.ultra.com.br/ri/english/index.htm
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,741,564,800
Last Dividend Value 0.078
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,556,150,400
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as compressed natural gas and biomethane for corporate clients. In addition, the company operates liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers; waterway and multimodal infrastructure; and port operations. Further, the company offers logistics solutions for handling grains, ores, and fertilizers; automotive services through Jet Oil units; and loyalty programs under the Km de Vantagens (KMV) brand. It also exports its products and services. Ultrapar Participações S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Long Name Ultrapar Participações S.A.
Market us_market
Market Cap 6,412,927,488
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_403623
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 3,202,893,056
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 6,334,137,369
Number Of Analyst Opinions 8
Open 6.06
Operating Cashflow 6,552,074,752
Operating Margins 0.04982
Payout Ratio 0.45560002
Peg Ratio 0.78
Phone 55 11 3177 7014
Pre Market Change -0.099999905
Pre Market Change Percent -1.6666651
Pre Market Price 5.9
Pre Market Time 1,784,016,002
Previous Close 6.0
Price Eps Current Year 9.384237
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 2.0337148
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.043986876
Profit Margins 0.020550001
Quick Ratio 1.166
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.0
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0
Regular Market Change Percent 0.0
Regular Market Day High 6.07
Regular Market Day Low 5.98
Regular Market Day Range 5.98 - 6.07
Regular Market Open 6.06
Regular Market Previous Close 6.0
Regular Market Price 6.0
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 4,357,932
Return On Assets 0.083009996
Return On Equity 0.19181
Revenue Growth 0.103
Revenue Per Share 136.838
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Energy
Sector Disp Energy
Sector Key energy
Shares Outstanding 1,068,821,226
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.00059999997
Shares Short 682,915
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 3,604,343
Short Name Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne
Short Percent Of Float 0.00090000004
Short Ratio 0.24
Source Interval 15
State SP
Symbol UGP
Target High Price 7.92
Target Low Price 5.0
Target Mean Price 6.43262
Target Median Price 6.25
Total Cash 7,158,525,952
Total Cash Per Share 6.698
Total Debt 21,122,043,904
Total Revenue 145,791,844,352
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.3
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.21666665
Trailing Eps 0.55
Trailing P E 10.909091
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 4.75905
Two Hundred Day Average Change 1.2409501
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.26075584
Type Disp Equity
Volume 4,357,932
Website https://www.ultra.com.br
Zip 01,317-910