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Ternium S.A. (TX)

Basic Materials | Steel | Luxembourg, Luxembourg | NYSE
44.83 USD +0.53 (1.196%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 3:10 a.m. EDT

Ternium presents a classic value trap scenario where attractive metrics mask deteriorating operational reality. While the 5% dividend yield and low P/E ratio look compelling on paper, the company has suffered two consecutive years of negative annual returns, dragging the share price down significantly despite a recent earnings beat. This divergence suggests the market is pricing in structural issues rather than a temporary dip. The options market confirms this skepticism, with heavy speculative positioning in deep out-of-the-money puts indicating a fear of further downside. Although the statistical forecast shows a slight upward lean, it lacks the conviction to overcome the weight of the multi-year decline and the aggressive bearish sentiment in derivatives. Until the price trajectory stabilizes with consecutive positive annual returns, the risk of capital loss outweighs the income appeal.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.070280
MSTL0.071216
AutoETS0.074473
AutoARIMA0.074621

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 47%
H-stat 2.61
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.304
Excess Kurtosis -1.12
Attribute Value
Sector Basic Materials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-13
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-13
Debt to Equity Ratio 18.239
Revenue per Share 79.519
Market Cap 8,800,474,112
Trailing P/E 14.94
Forward P/E 7.07
Beta 1.22
Profit Margins 3.66%
Website https://www.ternium.com

As of July 11, 2026, 3:10 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a significant downside move, evidenced by massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes 20-35) compared to negligible call volume. Conversely, call buyers are focused on upside targets around 50-55, creating a 'long gamma' environment where the stock could face selling pressure if it dips toward the put wall. Implied volatility is elevated for downside protection, suggesting fear of a sharp decline.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.94% 2.94% 6.79% 6.84%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-14 1.30 2.943174
2025-05-09 1.80 6.313574
2024-11-18 0.90 2.626204
2024-05-02 2.20 5.430758
2023-11-10 1.10 3.069196
2023-05-04 1.80 4.730618
2022-11-14 0.90 2.760736
2022-05-05 1.80 4.411765
2021-11-12 0.80 1.935640
2021-05-05 2.10 5.595524
2019-05-08 1.20 4.773270
2018-05-04 1.10 2.763819
2017-05-05 1.00 4.233700
2016-05-06 0.90 4.904632
2015-05-08 0.90 4.453241
2014-05-09 0.75 2.611421
2013-05-03 0.65 2.795699
2012-05-03 0.75 3.232759
2011-06-02 0.75 2.488388
2010-06-03 0.50 1.483239
2008-06-05 0.50 1.111605
2007-06-07 0.50 1.898975
Additional Data
dividendRate 2.2
dividendYield 4.91
exDividendDate 2026-05-14
trailingAnnualDividendRate 2.2
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0496614
lastDividendValue 1.3
lastDividendDate 2026-05-14
dividendDate 2026-05-20

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.4341011
Address1 26 Boulevard Royal
Address2 4th Floor
All Time High 56.86
All Time Low 4.55
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 500
Audit Risk 9
Average Analyst Rating 2.0 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 570,310
Average Daily Volume3 Month 452,939
Average Volume 452,939
Average Volume10Days 570,310
Beta 1.215
Bid 44.74
Bid Size 500
Board Risk 10
Book Value 62.132
City Luxembourg
Compensation Risk 5
Country Luxembourg
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 44.83
Current Ratio 2.634
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 45.29
Day Low 44.28
Debt To Equity 18.239
Display Name Ternium
Dividend Date 1,779,235,200
Dividend Rate 2.2
Dividend Yield 4.91
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,960,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,960,000
Earnings Growth 2.181
Earnings Quarterly Growth 2.181
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,873,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,873,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,873,600
Ebitda 1,555,947,008
Ebitda Margins 0.09967
Enterprise To Ebitda 8.341
Enterprise To Revenue 0.831
Enterprise Value 12,978,096,128
Eps Current Year 5.32925
Eps Forward 6.34529
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 3.0
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,778,716,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 45.9322
Fifty Day Average Change -1.1021996
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.023996228
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 43.41011
Fifty Two Week High 51.73
Fifty Two Week High Change -6.8999977
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.13338484
Fifty Two Week Low 29.98
Fifty Two Week Low Change 14.850002
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.4953303
Fifty Two Week Range 29.98 - 51.73
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,138,804,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 7.5
Float Shares 42,959,972
Forward Eps 6.34529
Forward P E 7.065083
Free Cashflow -557,738,496
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 33,253
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.15987
Gross Profits 2,495,590,912
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0
Held Percent Institutions 0.16466999
Implied Shares Outstanding 196,307,678
Industry Steel
Industry Disp Steel
Industry Key steel
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,778,716,800
Last Dividend Value 1.3
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.
Long Name Ternium S.A.
Market us_market
Market Cap 8,800,474,112
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_23957317
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 571,278,016
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 8,800,473,186
Number Of Analyst Opinions 13
Open 44.39
Operating Cashflow 2,323,923,968
Operating Margins 0.07374
Overall Risk 8
Payout Ratio 0.9
Peg Ratio 0.13
Phone 352 26 68 31 52
Pre Market Change -0.099998474
Pre Market Change Percent -0.22296205
Pre Market Price 44.75
Pre Market Time 1,784,034,323
Previous Close 44.3
Price Eps Current Year 8.412066
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.7215284
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.56376255
Profit Margins 0.0366
Quick Ratio 1.519
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.0
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.530003
Regular Market Change Percent 1.19639
Regular Market Day High 45.29
Regular Market Day Low 44.28
Regular Market Day Range 44.28 - 45.29
Regular Market Open 44.39
Regular Market Previous Close 44.3
Regular Market Price 44.83
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,803
Regular Market Volume 768,476
Return On Assets 0.0225
Return On Equity 0.03227
Revenue Growth 0.0
Revenue Per Share 79.519
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Basic Materials
Sector Disp Basic Materials
Sector Key basic-materials
Share Holder Rights Risk 5
Shares Outstanding 196,307,678
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0027
Shares Short 535,449
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 503,910
Short Name Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0109
Short Ratio 1.13
Source Interval 15
Symbol TX
Target High Price 62.0
Target Low Price 40.0
Target Mean Price 53.26923
Target Median Price 55.0
Total Cash 3,142,220,032
Total Cash Per Share 16.007
Total Debt 3,010,596,096
Total Revenue 15,610,249,216
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 2.2
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0496614
Trailing Eps 3.0
Trailing P E 14.943334
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 40.94615
Two Hundred Day Average Change 3.88385
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.09485263
Type Disp Equity
Volume 768,476
Website https://www.ternium.com
Zip 2,449