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Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA)

Long Government | Exchange Traded Fund | NYSEArca
20.22 USD -0.13 (-0.614%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 3:59 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 6:26 a.m. EDT

The Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF is currently trapped in a defensive posture, struggling to break free from a multi-year downtrend where the asset has lost over 4% of its value despite a recent pause in annual declines. While the price has stabilized near its 52-week lows, the technical structure remains bearish, trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which suggests the broader market still views the underlying bond strategy as underperforming. The options market confirms this pessimism, with traders aggressively buying cheap puts to protect against further drops while ignoring the modest call activity. Although the 3.33% dividend yield provides a cushion, it is insufficient to offset the capital losses incurred by the trailing price action. For now, the security offers no clear directional edge; the momentum is too weak to justify a bullish entry, and the fundamentals do not support a turnaround thesis yet.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.018850
AutoARIMA0.019536
AutoETS0.019766
AutoTheta0.021248

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 70%
H-stat 4.01
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.596
Excess Kurtosis -0.60

As of July 11, 2026, 6:26 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put volume at near-term expirations, creating a 'floor' around the $17-$18 strike range. Conversely, call interest is concentrated deep out-of-the-money ($25-$28 strikes), suggesting a speculative hope for a sharp rally rather than a measured uptrend. The implied volatility skew is inverted, with puts trading at significantly higher premiums than calls, indicating a fear of downside continuation.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.24% 3.17% 4.14%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-25 0.050 0.244141
2026-05-26 0.050 0.242601
2026-04-27 0.050 0.237192
2026-03-26 0.050 0.242014
2026-02-24 0.030 0.136986
2026-01-27 0.020 0.092166
2025-12-23 0.110 0.505282
2025-11-21 0.050 0.227169
2025-10-28 0.030 0.135685
2025-09-25 0.060 0.275482
2025-08-26 0.080 0.365297
2025-07-28 0.100 0.464900
2025-06-25 0.100 0.456204
2025-05-27 0.080 0.370028
2025-04-25 0.080 0.361174
2025-03-26 0.050 0.230627
2025-02-25 0.050 0.232019
2025-01-28 0.050 0.234192
2024-12-23 0.101 0.480266
2024-11-25 0.100 0.467946
2024-10-28 0.100 0.458926
2024-09-25 0.080 0.344976
2024-08-27 0.100 0.439947
2024-07-26 0.100 0.457457
2024-06-25 0.100 0.467071
2024-05-24 0.100 0.476190
2024-04-25 0.100 0.476872
2024-03-25 0.020 0.091199
2024-02-26 0.100 0.457038
2024-01-26 0.100 0.440335
2023-12-26 0.118 0.512375
2023-11-27 0.100 0.453104
2023-10-26 0.100 0.459770
2023-08-28 0.100 0.452694
2023-07-26 0.100 0.442674
2023-06-27 0.100 0.435161
2023-05-25 0.100 0.418585
2023-04-25 0.100 0.390869
2023-03-27 0.100 0.391083
2023-02-23 0.100 0.418760
2023-01-26 0.100 0.396983
2022-12-27 0.037 0.148207
Additional Data
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0
dividendYield 3.33

Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 26.64
All Time Low 20.265
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 5,200
Average Daily Volume10 Day 231,420
Average Daily Volume3 Month 314,898
Average Volume 314,898
Average Volume10Days 231,420
Beta3 Year 1.25
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 5,100
Category Long Government
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 20.3068
Day Low 20.2
Dividend Yield 3.33
Esg Populated 0
Exchange PCX
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 20.57448
Fifty Day Average Change -0.35448074
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.017229147
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -5.984288
Fifty Two Week High 22.305
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.085001
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.09347684
Fifty Two Week Low 20.2
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.01999855
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.0009900272
Fifty Two Week Range 20.2 - 22.305
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,668,609,000,000
Full Exchange Name NYSEArca
Fund Family Simplify Asset Management
Fund Inception Date 1,668,384,000
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary The fund invests primarily in futures contracts, call options, and put options on U.S. Treasury futures, U.S. government securities, such as bills, notes and bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury or fixed income ETFs that invest in U.S. Treasuries. The fund will hold cash and cash-like instruments or high-quality short term fixed income securities.
Long Name Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF
Market us_market
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_1803863538
Nav Price 20.3363
Net Assets 751,044,800.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.25
Open 20.3
Phone 614-469-3294
Previous Close 20.345
Price Hint 2
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.125
Regular Market Change Percent -0.614402
Regular Market Day High 20.3068
Regular Market Day Low 20.2
Regular Market Day Range 20.2 - 20.3068
Regular Market Open 20.3
Regular Market Previous Close 20.345
Regular Market Price 20.22
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,798
Regular Market Volume 1,721,443
Short Name Simplify Short Term Treasury Fu
Source Interval 15
Symbol TUA
Three Year Average Return -0.0056048
Total Assets 751,044,800
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns -2.26507
Trailing Three Month Returns -2.26507
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 21.437435
Two Hundred Day Average Change -1.2174358
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.05679018
Type Disp ETF
Volume 1,721,443
Yield 0.033299997
Ytd Return -5.56061