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Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Consumer Cyclical | Residential Construction | Fort Washington, United States | NYSE
148.15 USD -1.34 (-0.896%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★★☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 6:56 a.m. EDT

Toll Brothers presents a compelling case for a patient buyer, balancing a strong historical equity curve against recent earnings headwinds. The long-term investment thesis remains intact, supported by a nine-year cumulative gain of over 330 percent and a robust return on equity of 15.6 percent. While revenue growth has dipped into negative territory recently, the balance sheet is fortress-like with a current ratio of 4.6, and the payout ratio sits at a conservative 7.7 percent, leaving ample room for future dividend growth. The short-term outlook is cautiously optimistic; the stock trades above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and options flow shows significant call positioning at the 160 to 180 strike range, which aligns with analyst price targets. However, the recent price correction and negative earnings growth suggest the momentum is not yet fully confirmed, making this a solid hold rather than an aggressive momentum play. The dividend yield is modest, reflecting the company's focus on capital allocation and growth rather than income distribution.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.056882
MSTL0.057072
AutoETS0.057088
AutoTheta0.060031

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 45%
H-stat 4.79
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.361
Excess Kurtosis -0.61
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-09
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-09
Debt to Equity Ratio 34.45
Revenue per Share 114.449
Market Cap 13,847,728,128
Trailing P/E 11.26
Forward P/E 10.50
Beta 1.33
Profit Margins 11.66%
Website https://www.tollbrothers.com

As of July 11, 2026, 6:56 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range between 140 and 180. Call open interest clusters heavily at 160, 170, and 180 strikes, indicating a bullish bias for upside toward the 180 level. Put open interest is concentrated at 125, 130, and 140 strikes, suggesting institutional hedging or downside protection rather than pure bearish bets. Implied volatility is elevated at deep strikes but remains moderate at the money, reflecting a balanced but slightly bullish sentiment.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.17% 0.73% 0.81% 1.06%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-10 0.26 0.173925
2026-04-10 0.26 0.185555
2026-01-09 0.25 0.171963
2025-10-10 0.25 0.196448
2025-07-11 0.25 0.206988
2025-04-11 0.25 0.267037
2025-01-10 0.23 0.186175
2024-10-11 0.23 0.153477
2024-07-05 0.23 0.210700
2024-04-04 0.23 0.186992
2024-01-11 0.21 0.202624
2023-10-05 0.21 0.296778
2023-07-06 0.21 0.274833
2023-04-05 0.21 0.358668
2023-01-05 0.20 0.383583
2022-10-06 0.20 0.433934
2022-07-07 0.20 0.422386
2022-04-07 0.20 0.437541
2022-01-06 0.17 0.247922
2021-10-07 0.17 0.297828
2021-07-08 0.17 0.305316
2021-04-08 0.17 0.290301
2021-01-07 0.11 0.248756
2020-10-08 0.11 0.223441
2020-07-09 0.11 0.342786
2020-04-08 0.11 0.478886
2020-01-09 0.11 0.267901
2019-10-10 0.11 0.280041
2019-07-11 0.11 0.303114
2019-04-11 0.11 0.292242
2019-01-10 0.11 0.304372
2018-10-11 0.11 0.350877
2018-07-12 0.11 0.296097
2018-04-12 0.11 0.260293
2018-01-11 0.08 0.154410
2017-10-12 0.08 0.187529
2017-07-12 0.08 0.201461
2017-04-11 0.08 0.218699
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.04
dividendYield 0.7
exDividendDate 2026-07-10
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.01
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0067563043
lastDividendValue 0.26
lastDividendDate 2026-07-10
dividendDate 2026-07-24

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.3020742
Address1 1,140 Virginia Drive
All Time High 169.52
All Time Low 0.5625
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 3
Average Analyst Rating 1.8 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 955,200
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,095,870
Average Volume 1,095,870
Average Volume10Days 955,200
Beta 1.333
Bid 131.43
Bid Size 300
Board Risk 5
Book Value 90.508
City Fort Washington
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 148.15
Current Ratio 4.603
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 150.94
Day Low 147.16
Debt To Equity 34.45
Display Name Toll Brothers
Dividend Date 1,784,851,200
Dividend Rate 1.04
Dividend Yield 0.7
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,779,280,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,779,280,200
Earnings Growth -0.223
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.261
Earnings Timestamp 1,779,220,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,787,083,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,787,083,200
Ebitda 1,808,589,056
Ebitda Margins 0.16374001
Enterprise To Ebitda 8.668
Enterprise To Revenue 1.419
Enterprise Value 15,676,512,256
Eps Current Year 12.79544
Eps Forward 14.11511
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 13.16
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,783,641,600
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 143.794
Fifty Day Average Change 4.3559875
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.030293249
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 30.20742
Fifty Two Week High 168.36
Fifty Two Week High Change -20.210007
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.12004043
Fifty Two Week Low 113.52
Fifty Two Week Low Change 34.629997
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.30505636
Fifty Two Week Range 113.52 - 168.36
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 521,213,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 0.99
Float Shares 92,710,146
Forward Eps 14.11511
Forward P E 10.495844
Free Cashflow 631,238,144
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 4,900
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.25203
Gross Profits 2,783,734,016
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00732
Held Percent Institutions 0.92636
Implied Shares Outstanding 93,471,000
Industry Residential Construction
Industry Disp Residential Construction
Industry Key residential-construction
Ir Website http://www.tollbrothers.com/homesearch/servlet/HomeSearch?app=IRhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,783,641,600
Last Dividend Value 0.26
Last Fiscal Year End 1,761,868,800
Last Split Date 1,121,040,000
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Long Name Toll Brothers, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 13,847,728,128
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_308806
Most Recent Quarter 1,777,507,200
Net Income To Common 1,287,858,944
Next Fiscal Year End 1,793,404,800
Non Diluted Market Cap 13,847,728,650
Number Of Analyst Opinions 15
Open 149.03
Operating Cashflow 1,312,057,984
Operating Margins 0.15077
Overall Risk 3
Payout Ratio 0.0767
Peg Ratio 1.0
Phone 215 938 8000
Pre Market Change 1.7400055
Pre Market Change Percent 1.1736177
Pre Market Price 150.0
Pre Market Time 1,784,029,257
Previous Close 149.49
Price Eps Current Year 11.578343
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.6368717
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.2537131
Profit Margins 0.1166
Quick Ratio 0.447
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 1.77778
Region US
Regular Market Change -1.34001
Regular Market Change Percent -0.896389
Regular Market Day High 150.94
Regular Market Day Low 147.16
Regular Market Day Range 147.16 - 150.94
Regular Market Open 149.03
Regular Market Previous Close 149.49
Regular Market Price 148.15
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 606,127
Return On Assets 0.07531
Return On Equity 0.15657
Revenue Growth -0.076
Revenue Per Share 114.449
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 2
Shares Outstanding 93,471,000
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0471
Shares Short 4,404,327
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 4,229,589
Short Name Toll Brothers, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.059699997
Short Ratio 3.61
Source Interval 15
State PA
Symbol TOL
Target High Price 187.0
Target Low Price 115.0
Target Mean Price 167.73334
Target Median Price 175.0
Total Cash 1,105,511,040
Total Cash Per Share 11.827
Total Debt 2,923,458,048
Total Revenue 11,045,371,904
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.01
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0067563043
Trailing Eps 13.16
Trailing P E 11.257599
Trailing Peg Ratio 0.9909
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 141.8128
Two Hundred Day Average Change 6.3371887
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.044687
Type Disp Equity
Volume 606,127
Website https://www.tollbrothers.com
Zip 19,034