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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF)

Trading--Leveraged Debt | Exchange Traded Fund | NYSEArca
32.81 USD -0.62 (-1.855%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 32.90 +0.09 (0.274%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:59 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★⯪☆☆☆Long-term:⯪☆☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 4:32 a.m. EDT

This instrument is a catastrophic long-term failure disguised as a high-yield trade. The underlying asset, the 20+ year Treasury bull ETF, has suffered a brutal 88% collapse over the last nine years, with five consecutive years of negative returns. This is not a value opportunity; it is a structural implosion where the market has correctly priced the bond market's refusal to yield. The recent price action confirms this death spiral, dropping nearly 10% in the last two weeks as yields likely rose again. The 'dividend' of 4% is a cruel illusion; it represents a massive percentage of the remaining equity value and is being paid out of a shrinking principal that will likely never recover. Options data screams 'sell,' with traders buying deep out-of-the-money puts to protect against further ruin, while call buyers are scarce. For a leveraged product, the compounding decay is absolute. Avoid this at all costs.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.031263
AutoETS0.032455
AutoTheta0.033930
AutoARIMA0.057844

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 54%
H-stat 0.14
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.120
Excess Kurtosis 0.77

As of July 11, 2026, 4:32 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for further downside, evidenced by massive open interest walls in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 44, 45, 47) and significant volume spikes in deep OTM puts. While there is some call activity near the money, the overwhelming capital deployment is in protection against a drop to the $20-$30 range, suggesting a consensus expectation of continued weakness rather than a bounce.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.03% 3.88% 3.55% 2.58%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-23 0.3650 1.032240
2026-03-24 0.2230 0.631013
2025-12-23 0.4590 1.213323
2025-09-23 0.4050 1.006962
2025-06-24 0.3620 0.947396
2025-03-25 0.2880 0.679245
2024-12-23 0.5240 1.299281
2024-09-24 0.4350 0.738289
2024-06-25 0.4350 0.819827
2024-03-19 0.3200 0.616333
2023-12-21 0.4970 0.766502
2023-09-19 0.5000 0.894454
2023-06-21 0.4800 0.598504
2023-03-21 0.3500 0.406977
2022-12-20 0.4700 0.547786
2022-09-20 0.3600 0.371134
2022-06-22 0.2600 0.217028
2022-03-22 0.1500 0.082919
2021-12-21 0.0200 0.006940
2021-09-21 0.0500 0.016578
2021-06-22 0.1400 0.053660
2021-03-23 0.1500 0.065303
2020-12-10 13.7200 3.873518
2020-03-24 0.9900 0.242826
2019-12-23 0.5000 0.189251
2019-09-24 0.5900 0.189955
2019-06-25 0.6700 0.267679
2019-03-19 0.6800 0.353430
2018-12-27 0.9700 0.520107
2018-09-25 0.5700 0.333139
2018-06-19 1.0400 0.545932
2018-03-20 0.3000 0.165107
2017-12-19 0.7200 0.336921
2017-06-20 0.1800 0.081448
2013-09-17 0.1950 0.173333
2013-06-18 0.2950 0.201125
2013-03-19 0.1350 0.082468
2012-12-18 0.1850 0.105039
2012-03-21 0.1175 0.084229
2011-12-13 1.2475 0.737838
2010-12-22 0.7300 0.879518
2010-12-14 2.4675 3.038793
2010-09-22 0.2700 0.222177
2010-06-22 0.5500 0.535280
2010-03-23 0.3900 0.485528
2009-12-22 0.7050 0.890433
2009-11-20 10.4925 11.227930
2009-09-22 0.7925 0.732440
2009-06-23 0.1625 0.161051
Additional Data
dividendYield 4.09

Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 583.0
All Time Low 31.58
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 3,000
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,829,390
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,436,645
Average Volume 3,436,645
Average Volume10Days 2,829,390
Beta3 Year 7.22
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 2,700
Category Trading--Leveraged Debt
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 33.155
Day Low 32.755
Dividend Yield 4.09
Esg Populated 0
Exchange PCX
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 34.7134
Fifty Day Average Change -1.9034004
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.054831862
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -7.3191047
Fifty Two Week High 44.24
Fifty Two Week High Change -11.43
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.25836346
Fifty Two Week Low 31.58
Fifty Two Week Low Change 1.2300014
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.03894875
Fifty Two Week Range 31.58 - 44.24
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,239,888,600,000
Five Year Average Return -0.3281841
Full Exchange Name NYSEArca
Fund Family Direxion Funds
Fund Inception Date 1,239,840,000
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary The fund, under normal circumstances, invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, securities of the index, and ETFs that track the index, that, in combination, provide 3X daily leveraged exposure to the index, consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index is a market value weighted index that includes publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than 20 years. The fund is non-diversified.
Long Name Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares
Market us_market
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_54908379
Nav Price 33.44
Net Assets 2,262,768,130.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.9
Open 33.04
Phone 866-476-7523
Post Market Change 0.09000015
Post Market Change Percent 0.27430707
Post Market Price 32.9
Post Market Time 1,783,987,172
Previous Close 33.43
Price Hint 2
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.619999
Regular Market Change Percent -1.85462
Regular Market Day High 33.155
Regular Market Day Low 32.755
Regular Market Day Range 32.755 - 33.155
Regular Market Open 33.04
Regular Market Previous Close 33.43
Regular Market Price 32.81
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,800
Regular Market Volume 2,597,671
Short Name Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury B
Source Interval 15
Symbol TMF
Three Year Average Return -0.1905425
Total Assets 2,262,768,128
Tradeable 0
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns -0.52203
Trailing Three Month Returns -0.52203
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 37.8944
Two Hundred Day Average Change -5.0844
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.13417286
Type Disp ETF
Volume 2,597,671
Yield 0.040900003
Ytd Return -3.20907