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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Long Government | Exchange Traded Fund | NasdaqGM
83.97 USD -0.50 (-0.592%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★☆☆☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 4:57 a.m. EDT

The 20+ Year Treasury ETF is currently trapped in a severe secular downtrend, making it a poor candidate for either capital appreciation or reliable income generation at these levels. Fundamentally, the asset has suffered five consecutive years of negative annual returns, dragging the total portfolio value down nearly 40% since the start of the observation window. While the headline yield of 4.53% appears attractive, it is largely a reflection of the depressed share price rather than robust cash flow; the payout ratio remains moderate, offering only inflation-matching returns without the safety margin of a high-quality business. The recent price action confirms this weakness, with the ETF trading well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure. Options data reinforces this bearish sentiment, with traders placing heavy bets on further declines to the 80 strike level. Until the multi-year decline reverses and the underlying yield environment stabilizes, this instrument remains a defensive holding with limited offensive potential.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.010613
AutoETS0.011061
AutoTheta0.013472
MSTL_1260.015527
MSTL0.016789
MSTL_90_1260.019859
MSTL_900.020418

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 59%
H-stat 2.08
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.579
Excess Kurtosis 0.60
Attribute Value
Forward P/E -4198.50

As of July 11, 2026, 4:57 a.m. EDT: Speculators are aggressively positioning for further downside. Call volume is heavily skewed toward out-of-the-money strikes (OTM), with massive open interest walls at 87 and 88, while ATM call volume is negligible relative to put activity. Conversely, put volume is concentrated in-the-money (ITM) at strikes like 80 and 81, indicating bets on a drop to 80 or lower. Implied volatility is significantly elevated for deep ITM puts compared to calls, suggesting a fear of a sharp decline rather than a rally.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.37% 4.47% 4.17% 3.42%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-01 0.318 0.371843
2026-06-01 0.336 0.393120
2026-05-01 0.315 0.367948
2026-04-01 0.345 0.399954
2026-03-02 0.301 0.335900
2026-02-02 0.332 0.383593
2025-12-19 0.342 0.390634
2025-12-01 0.321 0.361609
2025-11-03 0.325 0.362157
2025-10-01 0.310 0.347183
2025-09-02 0.328 0.383043
2025-08-01 0.331 0.376907
2025-07-01 0.328 0.372135
2025-06-02 0.320 0.375763
2025-05-01 0.328 0.369827
2025-04-01 0.326 0.356323
2025-03-03 0.290 0.313276
2025-02-03 0.312 0.353902
2024-12-18 0.351 0.393674
2024-12-02 0.325 0.346223
2024-11-01 0.311 0.342360
2024-10-01 0.316 0.320845
2024-09-03 0.313 0.320205
2024-08-01 0.315 0.330500
2024-07-01 0.291 0.323657
2024-06-03 0.308 0.336245
2024-05-01 0.308 0.347787
2024-04-01 0.312 0.337115
2024-03-01 0.295 0.312268
2024-02-01 0.310 0.315554
2023-12-14 0.311 0.314015
2023-12-01 0.289 0.310786
2023-11-01 0.286 0.336075
2023-10-02 0.280 0.322098
2023-09-01 0.289 0.304692
2023-08-01 0.275 0.280212
2023-07-03 0.278 0.272335
2023-06-01 0.273 0.264740
2023-05-01 0.268 0.259866
2023-04-03 0.269 0.252345
2023-03-01 0.250 0.249078
2023-02-01 0.275 0.254206
2022-12-15 0.261 0.240953
2022-12-01 0.244 0.230711
2022-11-01 0.236 0.243877
2022-10-03 0.244 0.235000
2022-09-01 0.236 0.215328
2022-08-01 0.213 0.177441
2022-07-01 0.227 0.195994
2022-06-01 0.207 0.178110
2022-05-02 0.203 0.173238
2022-04-01 0.202 0.152591
2022-03-01 0.185 0.130927
2022-02-01 0.198 0.139712
2021-12-16 0.168 0.112646
2021-12-01 0.184 0.120782
2021-11-01 0.188 0.128380
2021-10-01 0.183 0.125903
2021-09-01 0.189 0.126939
2021-08-02 0.182 0.120794
2021-07-01 0.188 0.130402
2021-06-01 0.199 0.143984
2021-05-03 0.203 0.146549
2021-04-01 0.185 0.134536
2021-03-01 0.172 0.121934
2021-02-01 0.176 0.115789
2020-12-17 0.164 0.104592
2020-12-01 0.163 0.103492
2020-11-02 0.169 0.106571
2020-10-01 0.169 0.103452
2020-09-01 0.183 0.111681
2020-08-03 0.190 0.111798
2020-07-01 0.192 0.117489
2020-06-01 0.210 0.129406
2020-05-01 0.216 0.128610
2020-04-01 0.238 0.142481
2020-03-02 0.229 0.148759
2020-02-03 0.242 0.166277
2019-12-19 0.218 0.159742
2019-12-02 0.241 0.174246
2019-11-01 0.246 0.175014
2019-10-01 0.250 0.174508
2019-09-03 0.260 0.176618
2019-08-01 0.264 0.195180
2019-07-01 0.260 0.196612
2019-06-03 0.270 0.203866
2019-05-01 0.259 0.209040
2019-04-01 0.278 0.223527
2019-03-01 0.253 0.213214
2019-02-01 0.275 0.227348
2018-12-18 0.282 0.235786
2018-12-03 0.267 0.230411
2018-11-01 0.275 0.242483
2018-10-01 0.261 0.224709
2018-09-04 0.272 0.226610
2018-08-01 0.267 0.225393
2018-07-02 0.275 0.226617
2018-06-01 0.281 0.233583
2018-05-01 0.262 0.221265
2018-04-02 0.260 0.213325
2018-03-01 0.239 0.200302
2018-02-01 0.255 0.211268
2017-12-21 0.262 0.210273
2017-12-01 0.255 0.201501
2017-11-01 0.263 0.210822
2017-10-02 0.252 0.202768
2017-09-01 0.263 0.207495
2017-08-01 0.269 0.215822
2017-07-03 0.258 0.207296
2017-06-01 0.263 0.211841
2017-05-01 0.255 0.210605
2017-04-03 0.255 0.209583
2017-03-01 0.234 0.195865
2017-02-01 0.259 0.217464
2016-12-22 0.309 0.262287
2016-12-01 0.243 0.204666
2016-11-01 0.250 0.190825
2016-10-03 0.247 0.180542
2016-09-01 0.254 0.181727
2016-08-01 0.258 0.184589
2016-07-01 0.255 0.181404
2016-06-01 0.267 0.204723
2016-05-02 0.260 0.203411
2016-04-01 0.270 0.206612
2016-03-01 0.248 0.193101
2016-02-01 0.241 0.190258
2015-12-24 0.254 0.208487
2015-12-01 0.257 0.209232
2015-11-02 0.267 0.218942
2015-10-01 0.256 0.206768
2015-09-01 0.263 0.215521
2015-08-03 0.267 0.216107
2015-07-01 0.258 0.223145
2015-06-01 0.264 0.217948
2015-05-01 0.258 0.208065
2015-04-01 0.273 0.206615
2015-03-02 0.252 0.198629
2015-02-02 0.279 0.202939
2014-12-24 0.261 0.210569
2014-12-01 0.277 0.227984
2014-11-03 0.290 0.243779
2014-10-01 0.289 0.244439
2014-09-02 0.271 0.232160
2014-08-01 0.300 0.261872
2014-07-01 0.292 0.260064
2014-06-02 0.294 0.260269
2014-05-01 0.269 0.240136
2014-04-01 0.280 0.259524
2014-03-03 0.263 0.241218
2014-02-03 0.276 0.252470
2013-12-26 0.335 0.328110
2013-12-02 0.310 0.300010
2013-11-01 0.288 0.271212
2013-10-01 0.278 0.262760
2013-09-03 0.279 0.267703
2013-08-01 0.270 0.256264
2013-07-01 0.252 0.228240
2013-06-03 0.275 0.239589
2013-05-01 0.261 0.210467
2013-04-01 0.255 0.215390
2013-03-01 0.254 0.213625
2013-02-01 0.260 0.225030
2012-12-26 0.268 0.219313
2012-12-03 0.245 0.196535
2012-10-01 0.260 0.208970
2012-09-04 0.272 0.213635
2012-08-01 0.273 0.211989
2012-07-02 0.269 0.213120
2012-06-01 0.263 0.201749
2012-05-01 0.283 0.243065
2012-04-02 0.290 0.257709
2012-03-01 0.267 0.230053
2012-02-01 0.289 0.242490
2011-12-27 0.380 0.320810
2011-12-01 0.290 0.247863
2011-11-01 0.299 0.250314
2011-10-03 0.306 0.247153
2011-09-01 0.322 0.295494
2011-08-01 0.325 0.329681
2011-07-01 0.320 0.341771
2011-06-01 0.352 0.360508
2011-05-02 0.400 0.427168
2011-04-01 0.386 0.418700
2011-03-01 0.297 0.321533
2011-02-01 0.320 0.353787
2010-12-28 0.320 0.349307
2010-12-01 0.340 0.354573
2010-11-01 0.319 0.320056
2010-10-01 0.392 0.374725
2010-09-01 0.322 0.303774
2010-08-02 0.324 0.328101
2010-07-01 0.310 0.305118
2010-06-01 0.326 0.336603
2010-05-03 0.320 0.349002
2010-04-01 0.332 0.373243
2010-03-01 0.290 0.317495
2010-02-01 0.325 0.356555
2009-12-29 0.318 0.354397
2009-12-01 0.307 0.322310
2009-11-02 0.308 0.324040
2009-10-01 0.307 0.307924
2009-09-01 0.307 0.319592
2009-08-03 0.318 0.341715
2009-07-01 0.303 0.322066
2009-06-01 0.305 0.334834
2009-05-01 0.297 0.305839
2009-04-01 0.302 0.283915
2009-03-02 0.282 0.273044
2009-02-02 0.285 0.270424
2008-12-29 0.405 0.335404
2008-12-01 0.355 0.324497
2008-11-03 0.370 0.399094
2008-10-01 0.290 0.302777
2008-09-02 0.340 0.360284
2008-08-01 0.332 0.362683
2008-07-01 0.332 0.361695
2008-06-02 0.327 0.362126
2008-05-01 0.336 0.362147
2008-04-01 0.406 0.432237
2008-03-03 0.348 0.371636
2008-02-01 0.329 0.345479
2007-12-27 0.362 0.397540
2007-12-03 0.376 0.396834
2007-11-01 0.394 0.434160
2007-10-01 0.345 0.388164
2007-09-04 0.362 0.408762
2007-08-01 0.341 0.391369
2007-07-02 0.326 0.382225
2007-06-01 0.338 0.394906
2007-05-01 0.324 0.366143
2007-04-02 0.326 0.370034
2007-03-01 0.343 0.382173
2007-02-01 0.355 0.407624
2006-12-27 0.303 0.341601
2006-12-01 0.342 0.374098
2006-11-01 0.345 0.383504
2006-10-02 0.354 0.396417
2006-09-01 0.350 0.398815
2006-08-01 0.342 0.400187
2006-07-03 0.327 0.389703
2006-06-01 0.332 0.396607
2006-05-01 0.330 0.396635
2006-04-03 0.328 0.378884
2006-03-01 0.320 0.353669
2006-02-01 0.321 0.356508
2005-12-28 0.383 0.416712
2005-12-01 0.390 0.435900
2005-11-01 0.397 0.444668
2005-10-03 0.362 0.397278
2005-09-01 0.334 0.351283
2005-08-01 0.345 0.373296
2005-07-01 0.332 0.348740
2005-06-01 0.349 0.364263
2005-05-02 0.330 0.358345
2005-04-01 0.330 0.369541
2005-03-01 0.282 0.314346
2005-02-01 0.345 0.378207
2004-12-31 0.335 0.378317
2004-12-01 0.355 0.410642
2004-11-01 0.366 0.413466
2004-10-01 0.361 0.412807
2004-09-01 0.350 0.399954
2004-08-02 0.330 0.391134
2004-07-01 0.336 0.402540
2004-06-01 0.322 0.392587
2004-05-03 0.325 0.389595
2004-04-01 0.348 0.391407
2004-03-01 0.356 0.403308
2004-02-02 0.358 0.413873
2003-12-31 0.400 0.468110
2003-12-01 0.418 0.496201
2003-11-03 0.348 0.412127
2003-10-01 0.367 0.419333
2003-09-02 0.372 0.453327
2003-08-01 0.378 0.458126
2003-07-01 0.353 0.384993
2003-06-02 0.398 0.425623
2003-05-01 0.473 0.531341
2003-04-01 0.378 0.428232
2003-03-03 0.340 0.376773
2003-02-03 0.308 0.350478
2002-12-31 0.446 0.503557
2002-12-02 0.389 0.456359
2002-11-01 0.389 0.452431
2002-10-01 0.343 0.385653
2002-09-03 0.373 0.423671
Additional Data
trailingAnnualDividendRate 2.152
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0254765
dividendDate 2017-06-07
dividendYield 4.53

Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 179.7
All Time Low 80.51
Ask 84.02
Ask Size 17
Average Daily Volume10 Day 22,275,690
Average Daily Volume3 Month 24,553,763
Average Volume 24,553,763
Average Volume10Days 22,275,690
Beta3 Year 2.4
Bid 83.97
Bid Size 17
Book Value 148.865
Category Long Government
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 84.28
Day Low 83.934
Dividend Date 1,496,793,600
Dividend Yield 4.53
Eps Forward -0.02
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -12.586
Esg Populated 0
Exchange NGM
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 85.426
Fifty Day Average Change -1.4560013
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.017044006
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -1.3316214
Fifty Two Week High 92.19
Fifty Two Week High Change -8.220001
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.0891637
Fifty Two Week Low 82.77
Fifty Two Week Low Change 1.2000046
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.014498062
Fifty Two Week Range 82.77 - 92.19
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,028,035,800,000
Five Year Average Return -0.0726193
Forward P E -4,198.5
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGM
Fund Family iShares
Fund Inception Date 1,027,296,000
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary The underlying index consists of publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than twenty years and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve System (the “Fed”). The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and the fund will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that manager believes will help the fund track the underlying index.
Long Name iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Market us_market
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_8797414
Nav Price 84.44596
Net Assets 41,099,936,000.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.15
Open 84.185
Phone 415-670-2000
Pre Market Change -0.02999878
Pre Market Change Percent -0.03572559
Pre Market Price 83.94
Pre Market Time 1,784,026,587
Previous Close 84.47
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.5640681
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.5
Regular Market Change Percent -0.591926
Regular Market Day High 84.28
Regular Market Day Low 83.934
Regular Market Day Range 83.934 - 84.28
Regular Market Open 84.185
Regular Market Previous Close 84.47
Regular Market Price 83.97
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,801
Regular Market Volume 18,428,529
Shares Outstanding 109,700,000
Short Name iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Source Interval 15
Symbol TLT
Three Year Average Return -0.0225983
Total Assets 41,099,935,744
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 2.152
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0254765
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns 0.82127
Trailing Three Month Returns 0.82127
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 87.69275
Two Hundred Day Average Change -3.7227478
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.042452175
Type Disp ETF
Volume 18,428,529
Yield 0.045300003
Ytd Return 0.93029