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TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)

Financial Services | Banks - Regional | Cleveland, United States | NasdaqGS
16.33 USD
After hours: 16.33

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 8:24 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is defined by a stark contradiction between a massive dividend yield and fragile underlying economics. The 7.85% yield is mathematically impressive but dangerously misleading given the 314% payout ratio; the company is distributing nearly three times its earnings, relying entirely on capital recycling rather than sustainable cash flow. While the stock has recovered significantly from its 2022 lows, the multi-year trajectory remains depressed, and the balance sheet shows signs of stress with debt exceeding cash reserves. The recent price action is choppy, trading below its 50-day moving average, which dampens any immediate momentum thesis. Speculators are betting on a bounce to $17.50, but the fundamental reality is a high-risk, high-yield situation where the payout is likely unsustainable without further dilution or asset sales. This is not a core holding; it is a speculative trade on a potential turnaround or a distressed income play.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.037774
AutoETS0.038407
AutoARIMA0.038411
AutoTheta0.044601

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 48%
H-stat 52.89
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.213
Excess Kurtosis -1.28
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-08
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-08
Revenue per Share 1.245
Market Cap 4,579,630,080
Trailing P/E 45.36
Forward P/E 41.87
Beta 0.73
Profit Margins 29.39%
Website https://www.thirdfederal.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 8:24 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range-bound scenario with heavy out-of-the-money call interest at the $17.50 strike, suggesting a speculative bet on a rally to test resistance. However, this is balanced by significant put volume at the $12.50 strike for January 2027, indicating a floor is expected well below current prices. The lack of deep in-the-money call volume suggests limited conviction in an immediate breakout above $17.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.87% 7.68% 8.37% 8.22%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-09 0.318 1.866197
2026-06-10 0.283 1.695626
2026-03-11 0.283 2.094745
2025-12-02 0.283 2.024321
2025-09-10 0.283 2.111940
2025-06-10 0.283 2.142316
2025-03-06 0.283 2.253185
2024-12-03 0.283 2.080882
2024-09-10 0.283 2.190402
2024-06-11 0.283 2.310204
2024-03-06 0.283 2.212666
2023-11-28 0.283 2.113517
2023-09-11 0.283 2.165264
2023-05-26 0.283 2.484636
2023-03-06 0.283 2.050725
2022-11-28 0.283 2.096296
2022-09-02 0.283 2.014235
2022-06-06 0.283 1.950379
2022-03-07 0.283 1.691572
2021-11-29 0.283 1.538880
2021-09-03 0.283 1.451282
2021-06-07 0.280 1.277372
2021-03-08 0.280 1.305361
2020-11-30 0.280 1.627907
2020-09-08 0.280 1.886792
2020-06-08 0.280 1.701094
2020-03-09 0.280 1.402806
2019-12-02 0.270 1.365015
2019-08-30 0.270 1.541976
2019-06-10 0.250 1.418842
2019-03-04 0.250 1.480166
2018-11-27 0.250 1.602564
2018-09-07 0.250 1.604621
2018-06-08 0.170 1.043585
2018-03-02 0.170 1.147873
2017-11-27 0.170 1.135605
2017-09-08 0.170 1.144011
2017-06-07 0.125 0.809586
2017-03-02 0.125 0.740521
2016-11-25 0.125 0.664187
2016-09-01 0.125 0.693674
2016-06-08 0.100 0.549451
2016-03-03 0.100 0.586854
2015-11-25 0.100 0.531915
2015-09-03 0.100 0.598086
2015-06-10 0.070 0.458115
2015-03-05 0.070 0.488486
2014-12-03 0.070 0.468227
2014-09-10 0.070 0.483092
2010-05-12 0.070 0.499287
2010-02-10 0.070 0.552050
2009-11-10 0.070 0.610820
2009-08-12 0.070 0.607112
2009-05-13 0.070 0.598291
2009-02-11 0.070 0.555556
2008-11-12 0.050 0.384911
2008-08-13 0.050 0.431034
2008-05-09 0.050 0.406835
2008-02-21 0.050 0.397141
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.27
dividendYield 7.78
exDividendDate 2026-09-09
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.13
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0691978
lastDividendValue 0.318
lastDividendDate 2026-09-09
dividendDate 2026-09-23

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.23338366
Address1 7,007 Broadway Avenue
All Time High 22.54
All Time Low 7.56
Ask 17.71
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 7
Average Analyst Rating 3.0 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 740,730
Average Daily Volume3 Month 837,571
Average Volume 837,571
Average Volume10Days 740,730
Beta 0.731
Bid 15.28
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 6
Book Value 7.018
City Cleveland
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 10
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 16.33
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 16.63
Day Low 16.26
Display Name TFS Financial
Dividend Date 1,790,121,600
Dividend Rate 1.27
Dividend Yield 7.78
Earnings Growth 0.425
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.42
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,441,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 28.319
Enterprise Value 9,833,077,760
Eps Current Year 0.36
Eps Forward 0.39
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.36
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,788,912,000
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 15
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 17.0032
Fifty Day Average Change -0.6732006
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.039592583
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 23.338366
Fifty Two Week High 19.49
Fifty Two Week High Change -3.1599998
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.16213442
Fifty Two Week Low 12.91
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.42
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.26491094
Fifty Two Week Range 12.91 - 19.49
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,177,335,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 7.99
Float Shares 50,413,098
Forward Eps 0.39
Forward P E 41.871796
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 958
Fullday Change 0.0
Fullday Change Percent 0.0
Fullday Price 16.33
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.0
Gross Profits 347,228,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00452
Held Percent Institutions 0.9519
Implied Shares Outstanding 280,442,755
Industry Banks - Regional
Industry Disp Banks - Regional
Industry Key banks-regional
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,788,912,000
Last Dividend Value 0.318
Last Fiscal Year End 1,759,190,400
Long Business Summary TFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. The company offers deposit products, including savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, purchase mortgages, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, the company offers escrow and settlement services. TFS Financial Corporation was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TFS Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC.
Long Name TFS Financial Corporation
Market us_market
Market Cap 4,579,630,080
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_725377
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 100,547,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,790,726,400
Non Diluted Market Cap 4,627,305,457
Number Of Analyst Opinions 2
Open 16.4
Operating Cashflow 97,797,000
Operating Margins 0.45411
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 3.1389
Peg Ratio 72.62
Phone 216 441 6000
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 16.33
Post Market Time 1,792,180,867
Previous Close 16.33
Price Eps Current Year 45.36111
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 2.3268738
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 13.189077
Profit Margins 0.29393
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 3.0
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0
Regular Market Change Percent 0.0
Regular Market Day High 16.63
Regular Market Day Low 16.26
Regular Market Day Range 16.26 - 16.63
Regular Market Open 16.4
Regular Market Previous Close 16.33
Regular Market Price 16.33
Regular Market Time 1,792,180,801
Regular Market Volume 642,980
Return On Assets 0.0057599996
Return On Equity 0.05308
Revenue Growth 0.152
Revenue Per Share 1.245
Sand P52 Week Change 0.13723719
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 280,442,755
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.034
Shares Short 9,536,066
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 7,788,969
Short Name TFS Financial Corporation
Short Percent Of Float 0.184
Short Ratio 13.5
Source Interval 15
State OH
Symbol TFSL
Target High Price 18.5
Target Low Price 18.0
Target Mean Price 18.25
Target Median Price 18.25
Total Cash 577,420,992
Total Cash Per Share 2.07
Total Debt 5,855,635,968
Total Revenue 347,228,992
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.13
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0691978
Trailing Eps 0.36
Trailing P E 45.36111
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 15.81295
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.5170498
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.03269787
Type Disp Equity
Volume 642,980
Website https://www.thirdfederal.com
Zip 44,105