Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK)Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Chuo, Japan | NYSE
16.49 USD
-0.07
(-0.423%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 16.31 -0.18 (-0.180%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 6:06 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 3:18 a.m. EDT
Takeda presents a classic value trap scenario where the math looks attractive but the business reality is deteriorating. The company is currently posting negative earnings per share (-$0.30 trailing) and negative return on equity (-2.1%), which fundamentally disqualifies it as a high-conviction buy regardless of how cheap the price appears relative to book value. While the dividend yield of 3.7% is compelling, the payout ratio sits at 80%, leaving little room for error if earnings do not turn positive soon; this is a yield that relies entirely on the hope of a turnaround rather than a fortress balance sheet. The price action tells a story of stagnation rather than recovery. Over the last nine years, the stock has lost over 32% of its value, and despite a recent uptick in the latest year-to-date performance, the long-term trend remains firmly downward. The market is pricing in significant distress, reflected in the heavy put option activity which acts as a psychological floor but also confirms widespread skepticism about near-term upside. With a forward P/E of 31 and negative trailing earnings, the valuation metrics are distorted and unreliable. The recent news of restructuring and LATITUDE study data offers hope, but until the balance sheet stabilizes and consistent profitability returns, this remains a speculative hold rather than a core investment. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoETS ✓ | 0.029719 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.029719 |
| MSTL | 0.030140 |
| AutoTheta | 0.033572 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoETS
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 50% |
| H-stat | 12.78 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.315 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.97 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2026-03-30 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2025-03-30 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 73.7 |
| Revenue per Share | 1430.331 |
| Market Cap | 52,660,862,976 |
| Forward P/E | 31.11 |
| Beta | 0.09 |
| Profit Margins | -3.38% |
| Website | https://www.takeda.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 3:18 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (2.7k contracts at the $15 strike) compared to negligible call volume. This creates a 'put wall' suggesting a floor around current levels, while the lack of significant call buying indicates a lack of aggressive bullish conviction despite the stock trading near its 200-day average.
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | 0.339 | 2.279758 |
| 2024-09-30 | 0.326 | 2.292546 |
| 2024-03-27 | 0.292 | 2.057787 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.10106385 |
| Address1 | 1-1, Nihonbashi-Honcho 2-chome |
| All Time High | 31.29 |
| All Time Low | 12.28 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 7,400 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.0 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,673,330 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,962,939 |
| Average Volume | 2,962,939 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,673,330 |
| Beta | 0.088 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 12,800 |
| Book Value | 14.467746 |
| City | Chuo |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,798,675,200 |
| Country | Japan |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 16.49 |
| Current Ratio | 1.091 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 16.615 |
| Day Low | 16.445 |
| Debt To Equity | 73.7 |
| Display Name | Takeda Pharmaceutical Company |
| Dividend Date | 1,783,296,000 |
| Dividend Rate | 0.62 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.72 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,746,698,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,746,698,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,414,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,414,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,414,600 |
| Ebitda | 1,236,273,987,584 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.27438 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 3.992 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.095 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,934,614,908,928 |
| Eps Forward | 0.53 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -0.3 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,774,915,200 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 16.1364 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.35359955 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.021913162 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 10.106384 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 18.9 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -2.4099998 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.12751321 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 12.99 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 3.5 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.26943803 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 12.99 - 18.9 |
| Financial Currency | JPY |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,262,701,800,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 4.55 |
| Float Shares | 3,155,092,133 |
| Forward Eps | 0.53 |
| Forward P E | 31.113209 |
| Free Cashflow | 672,782,745,600 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 47,029 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.64063 |
| Gross Profits | 2,886,506,119,168 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.00065 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.031089999 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 3,193,502,878 |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic |
| Industry Disp | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic |
| Industry Key | drug-manufacturers-specialty-generic |
| Ir Website | http://www.takeda.com/investor-information/ |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,743,379,200 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.339 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,774,915,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Takhzyro, Advate, Elaprase, Replagal, Vpriv, Adynovate/Adynovi, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Flexbumin, Adcetris, Leuplin/Enantone, Ninlaro, Iclusig, FRUZAQLA, Alunbrig, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA brands. It has licensing and collaboration for the development and commercialization of products with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Cour Pharmaceuticals, Engitix, Halozyme, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Ucsd/Fortis Advisors, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Ac Immune, Acurastem, Anima Biotech, Biomarin, Denali Therapeutics, Luxna Biotech, Neurocrine Biosciences, Peptidream, Abbvie, Adimab, Ascentage Pharma, Crescendo Biologics, Exelixis, F-Star, Gsk, Heidelberg Pharma, Innovent Biologics, Keros Therapeutics, Kumquat Biosciences, Protagonist Therapeutics, Halozyme, Kamada, Johnson & Johnson/Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Previpharma, Novavax, Bridgene Biosciences, Charles River Laboratories, Iambic Therapeutics, Ipsen, Km Biologics, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, and Nabla Bio. The company operates in Japan, the United States. Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan. |
| Long Name | Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 52,660,862,976 |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_874540 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -152,389,992,448 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,806,451,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 52,488,096,211 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 16.52 |
| Operating Cashflow | 1,041,431,003,136 |
| Operating Margins | 0.11106 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.8003 |
| Peg Ratio | 0.42 |
| Phone | 81 3 3278 2111 |
| Post Market Change | -0.1800003 |
| Post Market Change Percent | -1.0915725 |
| Post Market Price | 16.31 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,980,371 |
| Previous Close | 16.56 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.1397767 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.011687557 |
| Profit Margins | -0.03382 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.0699997 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.422703 |
| Regular Market Day High | 16.615 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 16.445 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 16.445 - 16.615 |
| Regular Market Open | 16.52 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 16.56 |
| Regular Market Price | 16.49 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,803 |
| Regular Market Volume | 2,478,142 |
| Return On Assets | 0.02553 |
| Return On Equity | -0.02118 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.039 |
| Revenue Per Share | 1,430.331 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,193,502,878 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0017 |
| Shares Short | 5,260,746 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 4,881,647 |
| Short Name | Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0017 |
| Short Ratio | 1.73 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | TAK |
| Target High Price | 23.033585 |
| Target Low Price | 19.15557 |
| Target Mean Price | 21.029154 |
| Target Median Price | 20.898304 |
| Total Cash | 595,053,969,408 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 188.328 |
| Total Debt | 5,476,358,029,312 |
| Total Revenue | 4,505,720,061,952 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 200.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 12.077295 |
| Trailing Eps | -0.3 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | 0.4218 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 16.0835 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.40649986 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.025274342 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 2,478,142 |
| Website | https://www.takeda.com |
| Zip | 103-8668 |