Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)Technology | Computer Hardware | San Jose, United States | NasdaqGS
27.65 USD
-0.01
(-0.036%) ⇩
(July 14, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 4:46 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is defined by a stark disconnect between the company's deteriorating operational reality and the market's speculative fervor. Fundamentally, the business is struggling: revenue growth has stalled, profit margins have collapsed to single digits, and the company is burning significant cash with negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is fragile, carrying debt that exceeds equity, which makes the stock highly sensitive to any further operational missteps. While the forward P/E looks cheap, it is a trap built on expectations of a turnaround that hasn't materialized yet. The price action reflects this tension. After a massive run-up, the stock has been in a multi-year correction, recently trading well below its 50-day and 200-day averages, signaling that the broader market has lost faith in the previous growth narrative. However, the options market tells a different story; the extreme implied volatility and heavy call buying indicate that retail investors are still chasing the 'AI hype,' hoping for a sudden catalyst to reverse the trend. This creates a dangerous environment where the stock is priced for perfection despite flawed fundamentals. For a long-term investor, the lack of dividends, negative cash flow, and high debt load make holding this stock a gamble on management's ability to fix the unit economics quickly. Until the balance sheet stabilizes and margins expand, the risk of permanent capital loss outweighs the potential for a quick rebound. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.175832 |
| AutoETS | 0.188122 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.191984 |
| AutoTheta | 0.254031 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 36% |
| H-stat | 0.60 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.081 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.23 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 120.798 |
| Revenue per Share | 56.369 |
| Market Cap | 17,886,038,016 |
| Trailing P/E | 14.55 |
| Forward P/E | 8.72 |
| Beta | 1.94 |
| Profit Margins | 3.70% |
| Website | https://www.supermicro.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 4:46 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning aggressively for volatility rather than a specific directional breakout. Implied volatility has surged to nearly 100%, indicating deep uncertainty. Call volume is heavily skewed toward out-of-the-money strikes (OTM), suggesting bets on a massive rally, while put volume remains substantial at lower strikes, creating a 'strangle' scenario where traders are betting on a move in either direction. The heavy open interest walls at strikes like $30-$35 suggest these levels act as critical psychological barriers for both bulls and bears.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.4797818 |
| Address1 | 980 Rock Avenue |
| All Time High | 122.9 |
| All Time Low | 0.363 |
| Ask | 29.88 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 10 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.8 - Hold |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 43,077,670 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 50,902,516 |
| Average Volume | 50,902,516 |
| Average Volume10Days | 43,077,670 |
| Beta | 1.936 |
| Bid | 25.43 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 10 |
| Book Value | 12.597 |
| City | San Jose |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 27.65 |
| Current Ratio | 2.655 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 28.13 |
| Day Low | 27.32 |
| Debt To Equity | 120.798 |
| Display Name | Super Micro Computer |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,014,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,014,800 |
| Earnings Growth | 3.26 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 3.444 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,011,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,873,600 |
| Ebitda | 1,578,648,960 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.04684 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 15.504 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.726 |
| Enterprise Value | 24,475,504,640 |
| Eps Current Year | 2.59648 |
| Eps Forward | 3.17193 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.9 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fax | 408 503 8008 |
| Fifty Day Average | 33.4484 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -5.798399 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.17335355 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -47.97818 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 62.36 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -34.71 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.55660677 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 19.48 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 8.17 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.41940454 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 19.48 - 62.36 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,175,175,000,000 |
| Float Shares | 508,968,433 |
| Forward Eps | 3.17193 |
| Forward P E | 8.71709 |
| Free Cashflow | -7,448,383,488 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 6,238 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.08394 |
| Gross Profits | 2,828,721,920 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.12874 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.64162004 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 646,873,027 |
| Industry | Computer Hardware |
| Industry Disp | Computer Hardware |
| Industry Key | computer-hardware |
| Ir Website | http://ir.supermicro.com/ |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,751,241,600 |
| Last Split Date | 1,727,740,800 |
| Last Split Factor | 10:1 |
| Long Business Summary | Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California. |
| Long Name | Super Micro Computer, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 17,886,038,016 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_6479558 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | 1,247,389,952 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,782,777,600 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 17,892,507,926 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 16 |
| Open | 27.97 |
| Operating Cashflow | -6,693,234,176 |
| Operating Margins | 0.061100002 |
| Overall Risk | 10 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 0.91 |
| Phone | 408 503 8000 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.054201126 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 0.19602577 |
| Pre Market Price | 27.7042 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,784,112,764 |
| Previous Close | 27.66 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 10.649033 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 2.194967 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.5307397 |
| Profit Margins | 0.03701 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | hold |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.84211 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.010000229 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.036154117 |
| Regular Market Day High | 28.13 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 27.32 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 27.32 - 28.13 |
| Regular Market Open | 27.97 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 27.66 |
| Regular Market Price | 27.65 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,784,059,201 |
| Regular Market Volume | 22,410,958 |
| Return On Assets | 0.05524 |
| Return On Equity | 0.17877 |
| Revenue Growth | 1.227 |
| Revenue Per Share | 56.369 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20365608 |
| Sector | Technology |
| Sector Disp | Technology |
| Sector Key | technology |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 646,873,027 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.1595 |
| Shares Short | 103,192,503 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 74,475,797 |
| Short Name | Super Micro Computer, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.2083 |
| Short Ratio | 1.38 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | SMCI |
| Target High Price | 58.0 |
| Target Low Price | 15.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 37.375 |
| Target Median Price | 35.5 |
| Total Cash | 1,305,032,960 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 2.17 |
| Total Debt | 9,151,156,224 |
| Total Revenue | 33,700,206,592 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.9 |
| Trailing P E | 14.552631 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 34.46945 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -6.8194523 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.19784047 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 22,410,958 |
| Website | https://www.supermicro.com |
| Zip | 95,131 |