| Indicators | Browse All

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)

Real Estate | Real Estate - Development | Woodstock, United States | NYSE
15.46 USD +0.03 (0.194%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 15.15 -0.31 (-0.310%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 6 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:☆☆☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 5:46 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is mixed due to conflicting signals. While the stock has rallied nearly 16% over the last two weeks, breaking out above its 50-day moving average, the underlying momentum is fragile. The statistical forecasting model predicts a slight downside drift over the next 45 days with low confidence, suggesting the recent pop may be a temporary relief rally rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, the company faces significant headwinds: earnings growth has cratered to nearly -80%, and revenue is shrinking at an 8% annual rate. Margins are under pressure, and the forward P/E of nearly 25x implies analysts expect a recovery that hasn't materialized yet. The heavy short interest (24.6%) provides a potential catalyst for volatility, but the fundamental deterioration makes a high-conviction bullish entry premature. For the long term, the investment case is weak. The business is currently in a multi-year decline, having lost nearly 10% of its value over the last year while reporting negative growth across both revenue and earnings. Although the valuation appears cheap on a trailing basis (P/E of 16x, P/S of 0.14x), this discount reflects the market's pessimism about the housing sector and the company's execution. The balance sheet shows elevated debt relative to equity, and without a clear turnaround in growth rates, the stock risks becoming a value trap where the low price masks deteriorating fundamentals. The lack of analyst upgrades and the 'Hold' consensus reinforce the view that the worst is not yet fully priced in. Finally, there is no income component to consider. The company has not paid a dividend in the last five years, offering no cushion for investors who rely on cash flow. This absence of yield forces reliance entirely on capital appreciation, which is currently hampered by shrinking revenues and earnings.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL_48 ✓0.056150
AutoTheta0.078151
AutoARIMA0.078897
AutoETS0.078898
MSTL0.082030
MSTL_48_1040.082569
MSTL_1040.118522

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_48

Forecast Reliability
Score 40%
H-stat 3.63
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.688
Excess Kurtosis -0.50
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Debt to Equity Ratio 16.149
Revenue per Share 105.611
Market Cap 129,048,592
Trailing P/E 16.27
Forward P/E 24.94
Beta 0.88
Profit Margins 0.90%

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.25206012
Address1 110 Village Trail
Address2 Suite 215
All Time High 39.5
All Time Low 10.72
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 200
Average Analyst Rating 3.2 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 76,760
Average Daily Volume3 Month 85,467
Average Volume 85,467
Average Volume10Days 76,760
Beta 0.877
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 100
Book Value 9.48
City Woodstock
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 15.46
Current Ratio 7.375
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 16.03
Day Low 15.265
Debt To Equity 16.149
Display Name Smith Douglas Homes
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,777,465,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,777,465,800
Earnings Growth -0.799
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.789
Earnings Timestamp 1,777,465,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,328,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,328,200
Ebitda 59,649,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0626
Enterprise To Ebitda 8.806
Enterprise To Revenue 0.551
Enterprise Value 525,285,600
Eps Current Year 0.50667
Eps Forward 0.62
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.95
Esg Populated 0
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 13.2852
Fifty Day Average Change 2.1748
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.16370095
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -25.20601
Fifty Two Week High 23.5
Fifty Two Week High Change -8.04
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.34212765
Fifty Two Week Low 10.72
Fifty Two Week Low Change 4.74
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.44216415
Fifty Two Week Range 10.72 - 23.5
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,704,983,400,000
Float Shares 6,116,870
Forward Eps 0.62
Forward P E 24.935484
Free Cashflow 25,747,524
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 510
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.20929001
Gross Profits 199,416,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.04614
Held Percent Institutions 0.9576
Implied Shares Outstanding 8,347,257
Industry Real Estate - Development
Industry Disp Real Estate - Development
Industry Key real-estate-development
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is headquartered in Woodstock, Georgia, Smith Douglas Homes completed its initial public offering in January 2024. Since its inception, Smith Douglas has been entrusted by over 20,000 families to fulfill their new home dreams. Ranked a top 50 builder nationally for several years and with 2,908 closings in 2025, Smith Douglas currently holds the #32 position on the Builder Magazine Top 100 list. The Smith Douglas communities are primarily targeted to entry-level and empty-nest homebuyers looking to purchase a new home priced below the Federal Housing Administration loan limit in the metro areas of Atlanta, Birmingham, Central Georgia, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Dallas-Fort Worth, Greenville, Houston, Huntsville, Nashville, Raleigh, and the Alabama Gulf Coast. Smith Douglas offers its homebuyers a personalized, affordable buying experience at attractive prices, delivering exceptional value and quality. Smith Douglas Homes Corp. was incorporated in Delaware, USA.
Long Name Smith Douglas Homes Corp.
Market us_market
Market Cap 129,048,592
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_328847166
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 8,576,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 128,798,175
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 15.18
Operating Cashflow 3,906,000
Operating Margins 0.026689999
Payout Ratio 0.0
Phone 770 213 8067
Post Market Change -0.31000042
Post Market Change Percent -2.0051773
Post Market Price 15.15
Post Market Time 1,783,980,006
Previous Close 15.43
Price Eps Current Year 30.512957
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.6308018
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.13543603
Profit Margins 0.009
Quick Ratio 0.602
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 3.16667
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0299997
Regular Market Change Percent 0.194425
Regular Market Day High 16.03
Regular Market Day Low 15.265
Regular Market Day Range 15.265 - 16.03
Regular Market Open 15.18
Regular Market Previous Close 15.43
Regular Market Price 15.46
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 89,796
Return On Assets 0.06365
Return On Equity 0.12753999
Revenue Growth -0.081
Revenue Per Share 105.611
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Shares Outstanding 8,347,257
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.1155
Shares Short 963,972
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 979,217
Short Name Smith Douglas Homes Corp.
Short Percent Of Float 0.2395
Short Ratio 11.11
Source Interval 15
State GA
Symbol SDHC
Target High Price 15.0
Target Low Price 11.5
Target Mean Price 13.5
Target Median Price 14.0
Total Cash 27,986,000
Total Cash Per Share 3.353
Total Debt 70,390,000
Total Revenue 952,838,016
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Eps 0.95
Trailing P E 16.273684
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 15.9928
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.5327997
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.033314973
Type Disp Equity
Volume 89,796
Zip 30,188