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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)

Financial Services | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Boston, United States | NasdaqGS
104.00 USD +0.06 (0.058%) ⇧ (Oct. 15, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★★⯪Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 6:53 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is explosively bullish driven by a definitive $1.54 billion cash acquisition by Mapfre, which has already triggered a massive 40% price surge. This transaction provides a clear exit strategy and eliminates the ambiguity of a standalone insurer facing margin pressures. While the statistical forecast models show a negligible upward drift, they fail to capture the binary nature of this takeover event; the market is pricing in a near-certain premium close. However, the long-term investment thesis is currently neutral to weak. The company's multi-year price trajectory shows a net decline over the last decade, and the balance sheet is fragile with a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 6.8x and a current ratio below 0.4. The high payout ratio suggests the dividend is being funded by earnings rather than a robust cash surplus, making it vulnerable if the merger terms are delayed or adjusted. Investors should view this as a short-term momentum play on the buyout completion rather than a long-term compounder.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.349555
AutoETS0.349597
AutoARIMA0.349602
MSTL0.349997

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 50%
H-stat 1.01
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.416
Excess Kurtosis -0.75
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-31
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-31
Debt to Equity Ratio 6.818
Revenue per Share 88.097
Market Cap 1,526,770,176
Trailing P/E 22.32
Forward P/E 16.64
Beta 0.17
Profit Margins 5.33%
Website https://www.safetyinsurance.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 6:53 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bullish, positioning heavy call volume and open interest at strikes above the current price ($105, $115) while virtually ignoring put protection. Implied volatility is extremely compressed for near-term contracts, indicating a lack of fear regarding downside risk despite the pending merger uncertainty.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.89% 4.64% 4.58% 4.52%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-01 0.92 0.891819
2026-06-01 0.92 1.329672
2026-03-02 0.92 1.193410
2025-12-01 0.92 1.222104
2025-09-02 0.92 1.267392
2025-06-02 0.90 1.099707
2025-03-03 0.90 1.176932
2024-12-02 0.90 1.052139
2024-09-03 0.90 1.046512
2024-06-03 0.90 1.180173
2024-02-29 0.90 1.095424
2023-11-30 0.90 1.169895
2023-08-31 0.90 1.306810
2023-05-31 0.90 1.235924
2023-02-28 0.90 1.115380
2022-11-30 0.90 0.981033
2022-08-31 0.90 0.999445
2022-05-31 0.90 0.969201
2022-02-28 0.90 1.078619
2021-11-30 0.90 1.164747
2021-08-31 0.90 1.106875
2021-05-28 0.90 1.057455
2021-03-04 0.90 1.101052
2020-11-30 0.90 1.263158
2020-08-31 0.90 1.243094
2020-05-29 0.90 1.180483
2020-02-28 0.90 1.143002
2019-11-29 0.90 0.921659
2019-08-30 0.90 0.933223
2019-05-31 0.80 0.877867
2019-02-28 0.80 0.895456
2018-11-30 0.80 0.910954
2018-08-31 0.80 0.827301
2018-05-31 0.80 0.930233
2018-02-28 0.80 1.121233
2017-11-30 0.80 0.971463
2017-08-30 0.80 1.131542
2017-05-30 0.70 1.059002
2017-02-27 0.70 0.976290
2016-11-29 0.70 0.989399
2016-08-30 0.70 1.054693
2016-05-27 0.70 1.180837
2016-02-26 0.70 1.254930
2015-11-27 0.70 1.246217
2015-08-28 0.70 1.333333
2015-05-28 0.70 1.238719
2015-02-26 0.70 1.188657
2014-11-26 0.70 1.161248
2014-08-28 0.70 1.269956
2014-05-29 0.60 1.153846
2014-02-27 0.60 1.081471
2013-11-27 0.60 1.066288
2013-08-29 0.60 1.177625
2013-05-30 0.60 1.140684
2013-02-27 0.60 1.274156
2012-11-29 0.60 1.341982
2012-08-30 0.60 1.322168
2012-05-30 0.50 1.254076
2012-02-28 0.50 1.149954
2011-11-29 0.50 1.257545
2011-08-30 0.50 1.270648
2011-05-27 0.50 1.109632
2011-02-25 0.50 1.037344
2010-11-29 0.50 1.064509
2010-08-30 0.50 1.246572
2010-05-27 0.40 1.088732
2010-02-25 0.40 1.084305
2009-11-27 0.40 1.146132
2009-08-28 0.40 1.234949
2009-05-28 0.40 1.303781
2009-02-26 0.40 1.282051
2008-11-26 0.40 1.152406
2008-08-28 0.40 0.928074
2008-05-29 0.40 1.035733
2008-02-28 0.40 1.044932
2007-11-29 0.40 1.097996
2007-08-29 0.40 1.169933
2007-05-30 0.25 0.598372
2007-02-27 0.25 0.602991
2006-11-29 0.25 0.471787
2006-08-30 0.25 0.483653
2006-05-30 0.18 0.380872
2006-02-27 0.18 0.427046
2005-11-29 0.18 0.442152
2005-08-30 0.18 0.515464
2005-05-27 0.12 0.375822
2005-02-25 0.12 0.322754
2004-11-29 0.12 0.436522
2004-08-30 0.12 0.560748
2004-05-27 0.10 0.498753
2004-02-26 0.10 0.503018
2003-11-26 0.10 0.563698
2003-08-27 0.10 0.625000
2003-05-29 0.07 0.498221
2003-02-27 0.07 0.526712
Additional Data
dividendYield 3.54
exDividendDate 2026-09-01
trailingAnnualDividendRate 3.68
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.03540504
lastDividendValue 0.92
lastDividendDate 2026-09-01
dividendDate 2026-09-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.49640286
Address1 20 Custom House Street
All Time High 104.11
All Time Low 12.0
Ask 134.4
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 4
Average Daily Volume10 Day 117,220
Average Daily Volume3 Month 209,431
Average Volume 209,431
Average Volume10Days 117,220
Beta 0.165
Bid 74.83
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 4
Book Value 59.705
City Boston
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 104.0
Current Ratio 0.385
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 104.11
Day Low 103.96
Debt To Equity 6.818
Display Name Safety Insurance
Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Dividend Yield 3.54
Earnings Growth 0.21
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.193
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,649,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,649,600
Ebitda 95,543,000
Ebitda Margins 0.07428
Enterprise To Ebitda 15.895
Enterprise To Revenue 1.181
Enterprise Value 1,518,625,152
Eps Forward 6.25
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 4.66
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,788,220,800
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 15
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 617 603 4837
Fifty Day Average 103.5728
Fifty Day Average Change 0.42720032
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.004124638
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 49.640285
Fifty Two Week High 104.11
Fifty Two Week High Change -0.11000061
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.0010565807
Fifty Two Week Low 67.04
Fifty Two Week Low Change 36.96
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.5513126
Fifty Two Week Range 67.04 - 104.11
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,037,975,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 4.49
Float Shares 13,595,007
Forward Eps 6.25
Forward P E 16.64
Free Cashflow 160,487,248
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 568
Fullday Change 0.05999756
Fullday Change Percent 0.05772326
Fullday Price 104.0
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.07645
Gross Profits 98,340,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.02123
Held Percent Institutions 0.85329
Implied Shares Outstanding 14,680,482
Industry Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Disp Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Key insurance-property-casualty
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,788,220,800
Last Dividend Value 0.92
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, and insure individual vehicles, as well as commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for homes, condominiums, and apartments for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. In addition, the company offers business owners policies that cover apartments and residential condominiums, restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesalers. Further, it provides personal umbrella policies, which provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner's insurance policies; dwelling fire insurance for non-owner occupied residences; and commercial umbrella, which offers an excess liability product to clients. Additionally, the company offers inland marine coverage for homeowners and business owner policies; and watercraft coverage for small and medium sized pleasure crafts. It distributes its products through independent agents. The company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc and changed its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Long Name Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,526,770,176
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_968928
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 69,201,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,521,191,544
Open 104.1
Operating Cashflow 180,296,000
Operating Margins 0.13685
Overall Risk 3
Payout Ratio 0.78970003
Peg Ratio 0.95
Phone 617 951 0600
Previous Close 103.94
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.7418976
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.1869408
Profit Margins 0.053340003
Quick Ratio 0.266
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0599976
Regular Market Change Percent 0.0577233
Regular Market Day High 104.11
Regular Market Day Low 103.96
Regular Market Day Range 103.96 - 104.11
Regular Market Open 104.1
Regular Market Previous Close 103.94
Regular Market Price 104.0
Regular Market Time 1,792,094,400
Regular Market Volume 106,654
Return On Assets 0.0231
Return On Equity 0.07842
Revenue Growth 0.03
Revenue Per Share 88.097
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 4
Shares Outstanding 14,680,482
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0298
Shares Short 437,423
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 430,071
Short Name Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0358
Short Ratio 3.38
Source Interval 15
State MA
Symbol SAFT
Total Cash 67,918,000
Total Cash Per Share 4.626
Total Debt 59,773,000
Total Revenue 1,286,306,944
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 3.68
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.03540504
Trailing Eps 4.66
Trailing P E 22.317596
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 83.14115
Two Hundred Day Average Change 20.858849
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.25088477
Type Disp Equity
Volume 106,654
Website https://www.safetyinsurance.com
Zip 2,110