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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)

Financial Services | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Boston, United States | NasdaqGS
75.39 USD -0.54 (-0.714%) ⇩ (July 14, 2026, 9:44 a.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 3:10 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is driven by a massive divergence between the company's deteriorating operational metrics and aggressive speculative positioning. While the business shows signs of distress—negative operating margins, a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 7x, and a recent year-over-year price decline—the options market is screaming 'upside,' with call buyers placing significant bets at strikes far above the current trading level. This suggests traders are pricing in a potential turnaround or a re-rating based on the doubled credit facility, despite the weak underlying fundamentals. The dividend yield of nearly 5% is attractive but carries risk given the high payout ratio relative to earnings; it is likely being used as a floor to attract income seekers while the speculative crowd pushes the price higher. The statistical forecast model offers a neutral-to-slightly-negative lean, which aligns with the weak fundamentals, but it is clearly overridden by the options flow which is driving the short-term narrative.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.063827
AutoTheta0.065661
AutoETS0.067195
AutoARIMA0.067905

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 58%
H-stat 0.95
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.445
Excess Kurtosis -0.69
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-31
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-31
Debt to Equity Ratio 7.14
Revenue per Share 87.124
Market Cap 1,106,947,328
Trailing P/E 17.82
Forward P/E 12.06
Beta 0.22
Profit Margins 4.94%
Website https://www.safetyinsurance.com

As of July 11, 2026, 3:10 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bullish, positioning heavy call open interest at strikes significantly above the current price (80 and 90 for July/August expirations), while put activity is negligible. Implied volatility is extremely low for puts (near zero) compared to calls, indicating a one-sided expectation of upside movement rather than hedging against downside risk.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.33% 5.01% 4.71% 4.56%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-01 0.92 1.329672
2026-03-02 0.92 1.193410
2025-12-01 0.92 1.222104
2025-09-02 0.92 1.267392
2025-06-02 0.90 1.099707
2025-03-03 0.90 1.176932
2024-12-02 0.90 1.052139
2024-09-03 0.90 1.046512
2024-06-03 0.90 1.180173
2024-02-29 0.90 1.095424
2023-11-30 0.90 1.169895
2023-08-31 0.90 1.306810
2023-05-31 0.90 1.235924
2023-02-28 0.90 1.115380
2022-11-30 0.90 0.981033
2022-08-31 0.90 0.999445
2022-05-31 0.90 0.969201
2022-02-28 0.90 1.078619
2021-11-30 0.90 1.164747
2021-08-31 0.90 1.106875
2021-05-28 0.90 1.057455
2021-03-04 0.90 1.101052
2020-11-30 0.90 1.263158
2020-08-31 0.90 1.243094
2020-05-29 0.90 1.180483
2020-02-28 0.90 1.143002
2019-11-29 0.90 0.921659
2019-08-30 0.90 0.933223
2019-05-31 0.80 0.877867
2019-02-28 0.80 0.895456
2018-11-30 0.80 0.910954
2018-08-31 0.80 0.827301
2018-05-31 0.80 0.930233
2018-02-28 0.80 1.121233
2017-11-30 0.80 0.971463
2017-08-30 0.80 1.131542
2017-05-30 0.70 1.059002
2017-02-27 0.70 0.976290
2016-11-29 0.70 0.989399
2016-08-30 0.70 1.054693
2016-05-27 0.70 1.180837
2016-02-26 0.70 1.254930
2015-11-27 0.70 1.246217
2015-08-28 0.70 1.333333
2015-05-28 0.70 1.238719
2015-02-26 0.70 1.188657
2014-11-26 0.70 1.161248
2014-08-28 0.70 1.269956
2014-05-29 0.60 1.153846
2014-02-27 0.60 1.081471
2013-11-27 0.60 1.066288
2013-08-29 0.60 1.177625
2013-05-30 0.60 1.140684
2013-02-27 0.60 1.274156
2012-11-29 0.60 1.341982
2012-08-30 0.60 1.322168
2012-05-30 0.50 1.254076
2012-02-28 0.50 1.149954
2011-11-29 0.50 1.257545
2011-08-30 0.50 1.270648
2011-05-27 0.50 1.109632
2011-02-25 0.50 1.037344
2010-11-29 0.50 1.064509
2010-08-30 0.50 1.246572
2010-05-27 0.40 1.088732
2010-02-25 0.40 1.084305
2009-11-27 0.40 1.146132
2009-08-28 0.40 1.234949
2009-05-28 0.40 1.303781
2009-02-26 0.40 1.282051
2008-11-26 0.40 1.152406
2008-08-28 0.40 0.928074
2008-05-29 0.40 1.035733
2008-02-28 0.40 1.044932
2007-11-29 0.40 1.097996
2007-08-29 0.40 1.169933
2007-05-30 0.25 0.598372
2007-02-27 0.25 0.602991
2006-11-29 0.25 0.471787
2006-08-30 0.25 0.483653
2006-05-30 0.18 0.380872
2006-02-27 0.18 0.427046
2005-11-29 0.18 0.442152
2005-08-30 0.18 0.515464
2005-05-27 0.12 0.375822
2005-02-25 0.12 0.322754
2004-11-29 0.12 0.436522
2004-08-30 0.12 0.560748
2004-05-27 0.10 0.498753
2004-02-26 0.10 0.503018
2003-11-26 0.10 0.563698
2003-08-27 0.10 0.625000
2003-05-29 0.07 0.498221
2003-02-27 0.07 0.526712
Additional Data
dividendRate 3.68
dividendYield 4.85
exDividendDate 2026-06-01
trailingAnnualDividendRate 3.66
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.04820229
lastDividendValue 0.92
lastDividendDate 2026-06-01
dividendDate 2026-06-12

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.05855286
Address1 20 Custom House Street
All Time High 103.96
All Time Low 12.0
Ask 96.87
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 4
Average Daily Volume10 Day 108,710
Average Daily Volume3 Month 110,214
Average Volume 110,214
Average Volume10Days 108,710
Beta 0.216
Bid 54.42
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 4
Book Value 58.28
City Boston
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 75.3875
Current Ratio 0.366
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 75.57
Day Low 75.08
Debt To Equity 7.14
Display Name Safety Insurance
Dividend Date 1,781,222,400
Dividend Rate 3.68
Dividend Yield 4.85
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,960,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,960,000
Ebitda 88,845,000
Ebitda Margins 0.06957
Enterprise To Ebitda 12.62
Enterprise To Revenue 0.878
Enterprise Value 1,121,183,104
Eps Forward 6.25
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 4.23
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,780,272,000
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 617 603 4837
Fifty Day Average 72.672
Fifty Day Average Change 2.7154999
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.037366524
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 5.855286
Fifty Two Week High 81.49
Fifty Two Week High Change -6.102501
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.0748865
Fifty Two Week Low 67.04
Fifty Two Week Low Change 8.347496
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.12451515
Fifty Two Week Range 67.04 - 81.49
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,037,975,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 4.56
Float Shares 14,348,358
Forward Eps 6.25
Forward P E 12.061999
Free Cashflow 167,937,632
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 568
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.071100004
Gross Profits 90,796,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.02122
Held Percent Institutions 0.87811995
Implied Shares Outstanding 14,683,434
Industry Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Disp Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Key insurance-property-casualty
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,780,272,000
Last Dividend Value 0.92
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, and insure individual vehicles, as well as commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for homes, condominiums, and apartments for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. In addition, the company offers business owners policies that cover apartments and residential condominiums, restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesalers. Further, it provides personal umbrella policies, which provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner's insurance policies; dwelling fire insurance for non-owner occupied residences; and commercial umbrella, which offers an excess liability product to clients. Additionally, the company offers inland marine coverage for homeowners and business owner policies; and watercraft coverage for small and medium sized pleasure crafts. It distributes its products through independent agents. The company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc and changed its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Long Name Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,106,947,328
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_968928
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 63,589,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,114,325,806
Open 75.57
Operating Cashflow 174,291,008
Operating Margins -0.05479
Overall Risk 3
Payout Ratio 0.8652
Peg Ratio 0.95
Phone 617 951 0600
Previous Close 75.93
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.2935398
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.8668553
Profit Margins 0.04936
Quick Ratio 0.251
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.54250336
Regular Market Change Percent -0.71447825
Regular Market Day High 75.57
Regular Market Day Low 75.08
Regular Market Day Range 75.08 - 75.57
Regular Market Open 75.57
Regular Market Previous Close 75.93
Regular Market Price 75.3875
Regular Market Time 1,784,036,665
Regular Market Volume 8,336
Return On Assets 0.021860002
Return On Equity 0.07388
Revenue Growth 0.044
Revenue Per Share 87.124
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 4
Shares Outstanding 14,683,434
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0219
Shares Short 321,275
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 198,954
Short Name Safety Insurance Group, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0368
Short Ratio 2.11
Source Interval 15
State MA
Symbol SAFT
Total Cash 54,831,000
Total Cash Per Share 3.734
Total Debt 61,101,000
Total Revenue 1,276,968,960
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 3.66
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.04820229
Trailing Eps 4.23
Trailing P E 17.822104
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 74.31825
Two Hundred Day Average Change 1.0692444
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.014387373
Type Disp Equity
Volume 8,336
Website https://www.safetyinsurance.com
Zip 2,110