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Safehold Inc. (SAFE)

Real Estate | REIT - Diversified | New York, United States | NYSE
11.55 USD
After hours: 11.55

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 10:08 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is murky, caught between a technically broken trend and a fundamentally distressed balance sheet. The stock has suffered a catastrophic multi-year decline, dropping nearly 72% over the last nine years, which serves as a stark warning of structural deterioration despite recent operational headlines. While the company is generating positive operating cash flow and has announced new ground leases, the financial reality is dire: free cash flow is massively negative (-$317M), debt-to-equity is toxic at 177%, and the stock trades at less than 35% of book value. This deep discount reflects the market's fear that the asset base is eroding faster than it can be monetized. The dividend, while yielding nearly 6%, is a red flag. The payout ratio sits at 44%, which looks sustainable on paper, but the massive negative free cash flow suggests the company is burning through capital reserves to maintain this payout. It is a yield that investors are accepting as a 'lottery ticket' rather than a reliable income stream. Short-term, the options market is screaming caution, with significant put open interest capping downside moves, yet the statistical forecast offers no directional bias. The recent price action shows a flat-to-slightly-bearish drift, failing to reclaim key moving averages. Until the balance sheet is cleaned up or the negative free cash flow turns decisively positive, this remains a speculative hold for distressed investors, not a buy for capital preservation.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.084428
AutoARIMA0.086475
AutoETS0.086853
AutoTheta0.129787

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 44%
H-stat 34.86
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.081
Excess Kurtosis 0.00
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Debt to Equity Ratio 176.953
Revenue per Share 6.087
Market Cap 817,928,064
Trailing P/E 7.45
Forward P/E 6.92
Beta 1.77
Profit Margins 26.62%
Website https://www.safeholdinc.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 10:08 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume and open interest at strikes below the current price, particularly for January and April 2027 expirations. While there is some call volume at higher strikes (17.5), the overwhelming open interest concentration in the downside suggests a fear of further decline rather than a bullish breakout. Implied volatility is elevated on near-term puts, indicating hedging demand.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.50% 5.24% 4.22% 4.04%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-30 0.17700 1.503823
2026-06-30 0.17700 1.127389
2026-03-31 0.17700 1.308204
2025-12-30 0.17700 1.301471
2025-09-30 0.17700 1.142673
2025-06-30 0.17700 1.137532
2025-03-31 0.17700 0.945513
2024-12-30 0.17700 0.965104
2024-09-30 0.17700 0.674800
2024-06-28 0.17700 0.917574
2024-03-27 0.17700 0.877106
2023-12-28 0.17700 0.745891
2023-09-28 0.17700 1.012007
2023-06-29 0.17700 0.768563
2023-03-29 1.10625 2.366310
2022-08-31 0.78125 1.165577
2022-05-31 0.78125 0.922414
2022-02-28 0.78125 0.638933
2021-11-30 0.78125 0.659408
2021-08-31 0.78125 0.606805
2021-05-28 0.78125 0.954789
2021-02-26 0.68750 0.797065
2020-11-30 0.68750 1.001702
2020-08-31 0.68750 1.140872
2020-05-29 0.68750 1.292223
2020-02-28 0.62500 0.848645
2019-11-15 0.62500 1.043054
2019-08-14 0.62500 1.016627
2019-05-14 0.62500 1.482679
2019-03-01 0.56250 1.329804
2018-11-14 0.56250 1.096395
2018-08-14 0.56250 1.131832
2008-07-11 5.43750 10.239047
2008-03-13 5.43750 7.225615
2007-12-27 1.56250 1.234615
2007-12-13 5.43750 3.931996
2007-10-11 5.15625 3.070435
2007-07-12 5.15625 2.487788
2007-04-12 5.15625 2.303828
2006-12-13 4.81250 2.061468
2006-10-12 4.81250 2.266575
2006-07-13 4.81250 2.580736
2006-04-11 4.81250 2.685171
2005-12-13 4.58125 2.564501
2005-10-13 4.58125 2.581382
2005-07-13 4.58125 2.281629
2005-04-13 4.58125 2.310759
2004-12-13 4.36250 2.007239
2004-10-13 4.36250 2.132870
2004-07-13 4.36250 2.276434
2004-04-13 4.36250 2.421594
2003-12-11 4.14375 2.154079
2003-10-10 4.14375 2.150270
2003-07-11 4.14375 2.254481
2003-04-11 4.14375 2.864374
2002-12-12 3.93750 2.928747
2002-10-10 3.93750 3.123243
2002-07-11 3.93750 2.984945
2002-04-11 3.93750 2.685657
2001-12-13 3.83125 3.233739
2001-10-11 3.83125 3.080595
2001-07-12 3.83125 2.831266
2001-04-11 3.83125 3.444604
2000-12-27 3.75000 3.925605
2000-10-12 3.75000 3.828075
2000-07-13 3.75000 3.735273
2000-04-12 3.75000 4.221370
1999-12-29 3.56250 4.337067
1999-10-13 2.75000 2.112000
1999-07-13 2.68750 0.895935
1999-04-13 2.62500 1.139826
1998-12-29 2.56250 0.945347
1998-10-13 2.37500 1.016500
1998-07-08 2.18750 0.907879
1993-12-06 543.75000 2127.771403
Additional Data
dividendYield 5.91
exDividendDate 2026-09-30
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.708
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.061298702
lastDividendValue 0.177
lastDividendDate 2026-09-30
dividendDate 2026-10-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.25291073
Address1 One Penn Plaza
Address2 51st Floor
All Time High 587.7629
All Time Low 3.212617
Ask 11.64
Ask Size 600
Audit Risk 3
Average Analyst Rating 2.8 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 677,130
Average Daily Volume3 Month 434,038
Average Volume 434,038
Average Volume10Days 677,130
Beta 1.773
Bid 11.18
Bid Size 500
Board Risk 5
Book Value 34.327
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 4
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 11.55
Current Ratio 37.645
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 11.93
Day Low 11.55
Debt To Equity 176.953
Display Name Safehold
Dividend Date 1,792,022,400
Dividend Yield 5.91
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,445,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,445,200
Earnings Growth 0.078
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.079
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,441,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Ebitda 346,017,984
Ebitda Margins 0.79287004
Enterprise To Ebitda 16.344
Enterprise To Revenue 12.958
Enterprise Value 5,655,158,272
Eps Current Year 1.62
Eps Forward 1.67
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.55
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 212 930 9494
Fifty Day Average 13.901
Fifty Day Average Change -2.3509998
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.16912451
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -25.291073
Fifty Two Week High 17.45
Fifty Two Week High Change -5.9000006
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.3381089
Fifty Two Week Low 11.48
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.07000065
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.0060976176
Fifty Two Week Range 11.48 - 17.45
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 627,229,800,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.63
Float Shares 54,636,885
Forward Eps 1.67
Forward P E 6.9161677
Free Cashflow -317,175,872
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 72
Fullday Change 0.0
Fullday Change Percent 0.0
Fullday Price 11.55
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.92913
Gross Profits 405,484,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.22928
Held Percent Institutions 0.76124
Implied Shares Outstanding 70,816,280
Industry REIT - Diversified
Industry Disp REIT - Diversified
Industry Key reit-diversified
Ir Website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=96452&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Last Dividend Value 0.177
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,680,220,800
Last Split Factor 16:100
Long Business Summary Safehold Inc. is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Having created the modern ground lease industry in 2017, Safehold continues to help owners of high quality multifamily, affordable housing, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science and mixed-use properties generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT), seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders. Safehold Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is based in New York, United States.
Long Name Safehold Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 817,928,064
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_427255106
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 116,174,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 914,238,174
Number Of Analyst Opinions 9
Open 11.82
Operating Cashflow 36,947,000
Operating Margins 0.73670995
Overall Risk 5
Payout Ratio 0.4398
Phone 212 930 9400
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 11.55
Post Market Time 1,792,094,435
Previous Close 11.55
Price Eps Current Year 7.1296296
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.33646983
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.8742021
Profit Margins 0.2662
Quick Ratio 36.517
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.81818
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0
Regular Market Change Percent 0.0
Regular Market Day High 11.93
Regular Market Day Low 11.55
Regular Market Day Range 11.55 - 11.93
Regular Market Open 11.82
Regular Market Previous Close 11.55
Regular Market Price 11.55
Regular Market Time 1,792,094,402
Regular Market Volume 709,629
Return On Assets 0.028800001
Return On Equity 0.0464
Revenue Growth 0.2
Revenue Per Share 6.087
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 70,816,280
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.046
Shares Short 3,259,235
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 3,399,852
Short Name Safehold Inc. New
Short Percent Of Float 0.0854
Short Ratio 6.19
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol SAFE
Target High Price 24.0
Target Low Price 13.0
Target Mean Price 16.44444
Target Median Price 14.0
Total Cash 15,922,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.225
Total Debt 4,659,251,200
Total Revenue 436,414,016
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.708
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.061298702
Trailing Eps 1.55
Trailing P E 7.4516134
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 14.874
Two Hundred Day Average Change -3.3239994
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.22347717
Type Disp Equity
Volume 709,629
Website https://www.safeholdinc.com
Zip 10,119