Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | New York, United States | NYSE
10.08 USD
+0.07
(0.699%)
⇧
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 10.09 +0.01 (0.099%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:57 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:30 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is fraught with contradictions. On one hand, the company boasts a spectacular 9.84% dividend yield and a forward P/E of just 4.3x, which looks like a bargain for income investors. However, the payout ratio of 166% is a glaring red flag; the company is paying out nearly 1.7 times its earnings, meaning the dividend is likely being funded by debt issuance or asset sales rather than organic profitability. This is unsustainable. Fundamentally, the business is struggling. Earnings have plummeted by 93%, and operating cash flow is negative. While revenue grew slightly (+9.7%), the quality of that growth is questionable given the margin compression and debt load. The balance sheet is precarious with a debt-to-equity ratio of 387%, leaving little room for error if interest rates stay elevated. The price history tells a story of a broken trend. Despite a recent bounce, the stock is still down roughly 10% from its peak nine years ago, and it has suffered four consecutive years of negative annual returns. This multi-year decline suggests the market has permanently downgraded its view of the business quality. Options flow confirms the pessimism. Traders are buying deep puts years out, betting on a severe drop, while call buyers are hesitant to commit capital beyond a small upside. The statistical forecast model also leans slightly negative, though with low confidence. Given the unsustainable dividend, deteriorating earnings, and heavy debt burden, this appears to be a value trap where the high yield is a lure to mask the underlying rot. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.020958 |
| MSTL | 0.021248 |
| AutoETS | 0.021379 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.021442 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 41% |
| H-stat | 8.44 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.000 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 2.24 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Real Estate |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2026-07-01 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2026-07-01 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 387.643 |
| Revenue per Share | 7.805 |
| Market Cap | 5,628,743,168 |
| Trailing P/E | 16.80 |
| Forward P/E | 4.28 |
| Beta | 1.11 |
| Profit Margins | 10.78% |
| Previous Name | New Residential Investment Corp. |
| Website | https://www.rithmcap.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:30 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes $3.00 and $5.00) expiring in early 2028, suggesting a fear of a significant long-term collapse. Conversely, call activity is concentrated near the money and slightly out-of-the-money ($11.00-$12.00), indicating a limited bullish thesis focused on modest recovery rather than a major rally. The skew is overwhelmingly bearish.
| Last Yield | 1yr Yield | 3yr Avg | 5yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75% | 9.87% | 9.49% | 10.09% |
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | 0.25 | 2.750275 |
| 2026-04-06 | 0.25 | 2.593361 |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.25 | 2.293578 |
| 2025-10-01 | 0.25 | 2.228164 |
| 2025-06-30 | 0.25 | 2.214349 |
| 2025-03-31 | 0.25 | 2.183406 |
| 2024-12-31 | 0.25 | 2.308403 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.25 | 2.285192 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.25 | 2.362949 |
| 2024-03-28 | 0.25 | 2.240143 |
| 2023-12-28 | 0.25 | 2.308403 |
| 2023-09-28 | 0.25 | 2.699784 |
| 2023-06-30 | 0.25 | 2.673797 |
| 2023-03-30 | 0.25 | 3.188775 |
| 2022-12-29 | 0.25 | 3.022974 |
| 2022-10-03 | 0.25 | 3.486750 |
| 2022-06-30 | 0.25 | 2.682404 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.25 | 2.306273 |
| 2021-12-30 | 0.25 | 2.323420 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.25 | 2.287283 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.20 | 1.901141 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.20 | 1.784121 |
| 2020-12-30 | 0.20 | 2.038736 |
| 2020-10-02 | 0.15 | 1.833741 |
| 2020-07-01 | 0.10 | 1.381216 |
| 2020-04-14 | 0.05 | 0.959693 |
| 2019-12-30 | 0.50 | 3.117207 |
| 2019-10-02 | 0.50 | 3.387534 |
| 2019-06-28 | 0.50 | 3.248863 |
| 2019-04-03 | 0.50 | 3.012048 |
| 2018-12-28 | 0.50 | 3.450656 |
| 2018-09-28 | 0.50 | 2.805836 |
| 2018-06-29 | 0.50 | 2.858776 |
| 2018-03-29 | 0.50 | 3.039514 |
| 2017-12-28 | 0.50 | 2.767017 |
| 2017-09-29 | 0.50 | 2.988643 |
| 2017-06-29 | 0.50 | 3.146633 |
| 2017-03-23 | 0.48 | 2.882883 |
| 2016-12-28 | 0.46 | 2.954400 |
| 2016-09-29 | 0.46 | 3.338171 |
| 2016-07-05 | 0.46 | 3.524904 |
| 2016-03-31 | 0.46 | 3.955288 |
| 2015-12-29 | 0.46 | 3.782895 |
| 2015-10-01 | 0.46 | 3.709678 |
| 2015-05-21 | 0.45 | 2.616279 |
| 2015-03-24 | 0.38 | 2.531646 |
| 2014-12-26 | 0.38 | 2.938902 |
| 2014-09-25 | 0.35 | 2.941177 |
| 2014-06-25 | 0.50 | 3.987241 |
| 2014-03-27 | 0.35 | 2.730109 |
| 2013-12-26 | 0.50 | 3.736921 |
| 2013-09-25 | 0.35 | 2.684049 |
| 2013-06-11 | 0.14 | 1.090343 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.18418908 |
| Address1 | 799 Broadway |
| Address2 | 8th Floor |
| All Time High | 18.75 |
| All Time Low | 2.91 |
| Ask | 10.13 |
| Ask Size | 10,200 |
| Audit Risk | 10 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.4 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 3,640,610 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 5,395,012 |
| Average Volume | 5,395,012 |
| Average Volume10Days | 3,640,610 |
| Beta | 1.114 |
| Bid | 10.08 |
| Bid Size | 12,600 |
| Board Risk | 7 |
| Book Value | 12.328 |
| City | New York |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 5 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 10.08 |
| Current Ratio | 1.069 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 10.13 |
| Day Low | 10.035 |
| Debt To Equity | 387.643 |
| Display Name | Rithm Capital |
| Dividend Date | 1,785,456,000 |
| Dividend Rate | 1.0 |
| Dividend Yield | 9.99 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,240,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,240,000 |
| Earnings Growth | -0.932 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | -0.819 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,241,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,277,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,277,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 9.982 |
| Enterprise Value | 43,088,281,600 |
| Eps Current Year | 2.30059 |
| Eps Forward | 2.35354 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 0.6 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,782,950,400 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 9.6384 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.44159985 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.045816716 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -18.418907 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 12.74 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -2.6599998 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.2087912 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 8.43 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.6499996 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.19572948 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 8.43 - 12.74 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,367,501,400,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 9.44 |
| Float Shares | 555,910,952 |
| Forward Eps | 2.35354 |
| Forward P E | 4.28291 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 7,240 |
| Fullday Change | 0.0699997 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.699298 |
| Fullday Price | 10.09 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | 0.95561 |
| Gross Profits | 4,124,867,072 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.00505 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.61248 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 558,407,031 |
| Industry | REIT - Mortgage |
| Industry Disp | REIT - Mortgage |
| Industry Key | reit-mortgage |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,782,950,400 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.25 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,413,763,200 |
| Last Split Factor | 1:2 |
| Long Business Summary | Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio. The company's investment portfolio primarily comprises of single-family rental properties, title, appraisal and property preservation and maintenance businesses; real estate securities, call rights, SFR properties, residential mortgage loans, collateralized loan obligations and consumer loans, excess mortgage servicing rights, servicer advance investments, and asset management related investments. It also provides government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) and government guaranteed loans; non-GSE or non-government guaranteed loans; and residential transitional lending. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp. and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022. Rithm Capital Corp. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York. |
| Long Name | Rithm Capital Corp. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 5,628,743,168 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_225838735 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Name Change Date | 2,026-08-29 |
| Net Income To Common | 334,801,984 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 5,589,654,380 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 10 |
| Open | 10.07 |
| Operating Cashflow | -1,881,464,064 |
| Operating Margins | 0.07942 |
| Overall Risk | 7 |
| Payout Ratio | 1.6667 |
| Phone | 212 850 7770 |
| Post Market Change | 0.010000229 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.09920862 |
| Post Market Price | 10.09 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,961,449 |
| Prev Name | New Residential Investment Corp. |
| Previous Close | 10.01 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 4.3814845 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 0.81765085 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 1.3040087 |
| Profit Margins | 0.10784 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.394 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.36364 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.0699997 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.699298 |
| Regular Market Day High | 10.13 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 10.035 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 10.035 - 10.13 |
| Regular Market Open | 10.07 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 10.01 |
| Regular Market Price | 10.08 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,203 |
| Regular Market Volume | 3,358,304 |
| Return On Assets | 0.010089999 |
| Return On Equity | 0.055910002 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.097 |
| Revenue Per Share | 7.805 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20504117 |
| Sector | Real Estate |
| Sector Disp | Real Estate |
| Sector Key | real-estate |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 558,407,031 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.057600003 |
| Shares Short | 32,150,238 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 41,483,448 |
| Short Name | Rithm Capital Corp. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0579 |
| Short Ratio | 5.18 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | NY |
| Symbol | RITM |
| Target High Price | 14.0 |
| Target Low Price | 12.5 |
| Target Mean Price | 13.15 |
| Target Median Price | 13.0 |
| Total Cash | 1,732,541,056 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 3.103 |
| Total Debt | 36,627,308,544 |
| Total Revenue | 4,316,491,776 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 1.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0999001 |
| Trailing Eps | 0.6 |
| Trailing P E | 16.8 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 10.14585 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.06585026 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.0064903637 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 3,358,304 |
| Website | https://www.rithmcap.com |
| Zip | 10,003 |