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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | Miami Beach, United States | NasdaqGM
9.31 USD -0.08 (-0.852%) ⇩ (Oct. 16, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 9.31
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:★⯪☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 7:55 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is fundamentally broken. While the headline 19.5% yield looks attractive, it is a trap built on a payout ratio of 137%, meaning the company is distributing more cash than it earns. This is a classic dividend cut waiting to happen. The business itself is deteriorating, with revenue shrinking by 7.5% and earnings falling 17% year-over-year. The price action confirms this rot, as the stock has lost nearly 22% of its value in the last fiscal year and is now trading at a discount to book value despite holding significant debt. The options market is screaming 'crash,' with investors buying deep insurance against further declines while almost no one is betting on a recovery. Even though the statistical forecast model shows a tiny, moderate-confidence uptick, it is irrelevant against the backdrop of collapsing fundamentals and a balance sheet that cannot sustain the current dividend. This is a value trap where the low price reflects the reality of a failing mortgage REIT.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.050205
AutoETS0.050821
AutoTheta0.050847
AutoARIMA0.051511

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 49%
H-stat 4.35
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.021
Excess Kurtosis -0.34
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Debt to Equity Ratio 46.578
Revenue per Share 2.312
Market Cap 238,532,880
Trailing P/E 6.80
Forward P/E 4.85
Beta 0.34
Profit Margins 60.21%
Website https://www.refi.reit

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 7:55 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioned for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes 5.0 and 12.5) compared to negligible call volume. The implied volatility skew is extreme, with deep puts trading at significantly higher IV than calls, indicating a market consensus of severe distress rather than a speculative rally.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
4.69% 17.06% 15.11% —
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-30 0.47 4.690619
2026-06-30 0.47 4.384328
2026-03-31 0.47 4.151944
2025-12-31 0.47 3.833605
2025-09-30 0.47 3.674746
2025-06-30 0.47 3.366762
2025-03-31 0.47 3.197279
2024-12-31 0.65 4.215305
2024-09-30 0.47 3.030303
2024-06-28 0.47 3.059896
2024-03-27 0.47 2.995539
2023-12-28 0.76 4.735203
2023-09-28 0.47 3.197279
2023-06-29 0.47 3.118779
2023-03-30 0.47 3.544495
2022-12-29 0.76 5.066667
2022-09-29 0.47 3.230241
2022-06-29 0.47 3.024453
2022-03-30 0.40 2.249719
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.88
dividendYield 20.01
exDividendDate 2026-09-30
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.88
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.20021299
lastDividendValue 0.47
lastDividendDate 2026-09-30
dividendDate 2026-10-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.28971255
Address1 1,680 Michigan Avenue
Address2 Suite 700
All Time High 20.29
All Time Low 9.04
Ask 12.76
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 4
Average Daily Volume10 Day 191,780
Average Daily Volume3 Month 195,101
Average Volume 195,101
Average Volume10Days 191,780
Beta 0.344
Bid 7.17
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 9
Book Value 14.152
City Miami Beach
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,672,444,800
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 9.31
Current Ratio 26.607
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 9.5
Day Low 9.22
Debt To Equity 46.578
Display Name Chicago Atlantic RE Finance
Dividend Date 1,792,022,400
Dividend Rate 1.88
Dividend Yield 20.01
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,453,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,453,200
Earnings Growth -0.171
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.158
Earnings Timestamp 1,786,451,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,709,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,709,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 7.53
Enterprise Value 367,733,408
Eps Forward 1.92
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.37
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Exchange NGM
Exchange Data Delayed By 15
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 10.4095
Fifty Day Average Change -1.0994997
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.10562464
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -28.971254
Fifty Two Week High 13.49
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.1799994
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.30985913
Fifty Two Week Low 9.04
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.27000046
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.029867308
Fifty Two Week Range 9.04 - 13.49
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,638,973,800,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 8.22
Float Shares 22,671,640
Forward Eps 1.92
Forward P E 4.8489585
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGM
Fullday Change -0.07999992
Fullday Change Percent -0.85196936
Fullday Price 9.31
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 48,836,028
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.11512
Held Percent Institutions 0.31839
Implied Shares Outstanding 25,621,146
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Ipo Expected Date 2,021-12-08
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Last Dividend Value 0.47
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It engages in originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company's loan portfolio is comprised of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Miami Beach, Florida.
Long Name Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 238,532,880
Market State POST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_1680938231
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 29,405,482
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 273,890,050
Number Of Analyst Opinions 4
Open 9.45
Operating Cashflow 26,923,272
Operating Margins 0.62665004
Overall Risk 8
Payout Ratio 1.3722999
Phone 312 625 9295
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 9.31
Post Market Time 1,792,180,835
Previous Close 9.39
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.65785754
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 4.8843627
Profit Margins 0.60213
Quick Ratio 26.607
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.07999992
Regular Market Change Percent -0.8519693
Regular Market Day High 9.5
Regular Market Day Low 9.22
Regular Market Day Range 9.22 - 9.5
Regular Market Open 9.45
Regular Market Previous Close 9.39
Regular Market Price 9.31
Regular Market Time 1,792,180,801
Regular Market Volume 139,367
Return On Assets 0.06414
Return On Equity 0.096149996
Revenue Growth -0.075
Revenue Per Share 2.312
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 9
Shares Outstanding 25,621,146
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0732
Shares Short 1,876,517
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 1,300,944
Short Name Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi
Short Percent Of Float 0.0774
Short Ratio 7.94
Source Interval 15
State FL
Symbol REFI
Target High Price 20.0
Target Low Price 10.5
Target Mean Price 15.125
Target Median Price 15.0
Total Cash 13,351,699
Total Cash Per Share 0.521
Total Debt 140,502,544
Total Revenue 48,836,028
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.88
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.20021299
Trailing Eps 1.37
Trailing P E 6.795621
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 11.302275
Two Hundred Day Average Change -1.9922743
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.17627198
Type Disp Equity
Volume 139,367
Website https://www.refi.reit
Zip 33,139