Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)Healthcare | Biotechnology | Novato, United States | NasdaqGS
14.92 USD
-0.38
(-2.484%) ⇩
(Oct. 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 1:30 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Ultragenyx is currently broken by a perfect storm of deteriorating fundamentals and aggressive short-term selling. The company is bleeding cash, with operating cash flow of -$485 million and free cash flow of -$222 million, while posting gross and operating margins in negative territory. This financial distress is reflected in the balance sheet, which shows negative book value and a debt load of $1.2 billion against only $292 million in cash. The market has punished this reality hard, with the stock down nearly 57% over the last nine years and just one positive annual return in that span. Short-term momentum is severely damaged. The stock is trading well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a persistent downtrend. Although the recent news mentions an index migration to the Russell 2000, the price action tells a different story, with the stock extending a losing streak and failing to find a floor. The options market confirms this bearish sentiment, with traders pouring capital into put options to protect against further drops rather than speculating on a recovery. There is no income component to offset these risks, as the company has not paid a dividend in five years. While the clinical pipeline offers a theoretical path to recovery, the current financial burn rate and lack of profitability make this a high-risk speculative play rather than a viable investment. The consensus analyst target suggests significant upside potential, but given the multi-year decline and structural cash deficits, relying on a turnaround without immediate proof of revenue generation is dangerous. For now, the data supports avoiding the stock until the bleeding stops and profitability returns. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.244746 |
| AutoETS | 0.254766 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.264409 |
| AutoTheta | 0.343016 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 31% |
| H-stat | 11.68 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.052 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.76 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Revenue per Share | 7.131 |
| Market Cap | 1,470,945,920 |
| Forward P/E | 25.17 |
| Beta | 0.35 |
| Profit Margins | -81.73% |
| Website | https://www.ultragenyx.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 1:30 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning heavily for downside protection, evidenced by massive put volume and open interest at strikes significantly below the current price (e.g., $12.50 and $20.00). While there is some call activity at higher strikes ($20-$35), the overwhelming sentiment is defensive, with traders buying deep out-of-the-money puts to hedge against further declines rather than betting on a rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.5423273 |
| Address1 | 60 Leveroni Court |
| All Time High | 179.647 |
| All Time Low | 12.73 |
| Ask | 18.99 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 5 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.1 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 4,223,600 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 3,956,225 |
| Average Volume | 3,956,225 |
| Average Volume10Days | 4,223,600 |
| Beta | 0.348 |
| Bid | 11.04 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | -2.96 |
| City | Novato |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 14.92 |
| Current Ratio | 1.726 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 15.39 |
| Day Low | 14.69 |
| Display Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,877,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,877,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,736,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,736,000 |
| Ebitda | -465,000,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.64853996 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -5.126 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 3.324 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,383,470,080 |
| Eps Current Year | -3.92528 |
| Eps Forward | 0.59274 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -5.82 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 19.8741 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -4.9540997 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.24927416 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -54.232727 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 39.89 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -24.97 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.62597144 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 12.73 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 2.1900005 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.1720346 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 12.73 - 39.89 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,391,178,600,000 |
| Float Shares | 80,416,024 |
| Forward Eps | 0.59274 |
| Forward P E | 25.171238 |
| Free Cashflow | -221,787,008 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,371 |
| Fullday Change | -0.5500002 |
| Fullday Change Percent | -3.5947723 |
| Fullday Price | 14.92 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | -0.20781 |
| Gross Profits | -149,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.03439 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.1244301 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 98,588,873 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia, as well as tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. The company's products candidates that are in Phase 3 clinical trials include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of osteogenesis imperfecta; UX111, an AAV9 gene therapy product candidate for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A, or MPS IIIA, a rare lysosomal storage disease; DTX401, an adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapy clinical candidate for the treatment of patients with glycogen storage disease type Ia; DTX301, an AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase; and GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for the treatment of Angelman syndrome. It also develops UX701, an adeno-associated AAV9 gene therapy which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Wilson liver disease. The company has collaboration and license agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.; Saint Louis University; Baylor Research Institute; REGENXBIO Inc.; GeneTx; Mereo; University of Pennsylvania; Regeneron; and Abeona. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California. |
| Long Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 1,470,945,920 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_117471985 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -586,000,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 1,467,988,318 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 19 |
| Open | 15.27 |
| Operating Cashflow | -485,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.35047 |
| Overall Risk | 6 |
| Phone | 415 483 8800 |
| Previous Close | 15.3 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -3.8010027 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | -5.0405407 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 2.0515285 |
| Profit Margins | -0.81728995 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.407 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.1 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.38 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -2.48366 |
| Regular Market Day High | 15.39 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 14.69 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 14.69 - 15.39 |
| Regular Market Open | 15.27 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 15.3 |
| Regular Market Price | 14.92 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,791,921,600 |
| Regular Market Volume | 5,303,876 |
| Return On Assets | -0.24219 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.281 |
| Revenue Per Share | 7.131 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.17502642 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 98,588,873 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.20639999 |
| Shares Short | 20,349,877 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 17,144,354 |
| Short Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.21350001 |
| Short Ratio | 2.95 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | RARE |
| Target High Price | 39.0 |
| Target Low Price | 16.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 26.78947 |
| Target Median Price | 25.0 |
| Total Cash | 292,000,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 2.971 |
| Total Debt | 1,202,000,000 |
| Total Revenue | 717,000,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -5.82 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 23.52075 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -8.60075 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.36566648 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 5,303,876 |
| Website | https://www.ultragenyx.com |
| Zip | 94,949 |