Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)Healthcare | Biotechnology | Novato, United States | NasdaqGS
24.81 USD
+0.29
(1.183%)
⇧
(April 17, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 25.39 +0.58 (2.346%) ⇧ (April 17, 2026, 5:30 p.m. EDT) Short-term: ★☆☆☆☆ | Long-term: ★★☆☆☆ | Dividends: ☆☆☆☆☆ |
Hot Take | April 18, 2026, 11:23 p.m. EDT
Despite a glowing 'Strong Buy' analyst consensus and positive DTX301 trial news, the market internals tell a bearish story. The stock is charting a lower high pattern, trading below its 200-day moving average, and predictive models are forecasting a ~6% drop over the next 45 days. SPY correlation is weak (Beta 0.25), but the fundamental reality is a cash-burning biotech ($251M FCFF burn) with no dividend and negative margins. The large put wall at 17.5 suggests sellers know the downside risk is substantial. Investors are better off waiting for clearer clinical proof before adding to the bag at current levels. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.063628 |
| AutoETS | 0.090354 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.095378 |
| MSTL | 0.112663 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 43% |
| H-stat | 8.69 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.069 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 0.56 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Revenue per Share | 6.826 |
| Market Cap | 2,439,250,176 |
| Forward P/E | 306.64 |
| Beta | 0.25 |
| Profit Margins | -85.44% |
| Website | https://www.ultragenyx.com |
As of April 18, 2026, 11:23 p.m. EDT: Near-term (May/Aug 2026) options market shows a distinct skew towards downside protection via Put options (especially at 17.5 and 22.5 strikes), suggesting speculators are hedging or expecting further volatility downwards. High IV (0.58–1.11) indicates implied expectation of significant movement. In contrast, Call positioning is sparse with OI heavily concentrated at the money, lacking strong directional upside bets until late 2026, where ITM puts start appearing. Put OI significantly exceeds Call OI in the closest expirations, confirming a defensive/sideways-bearish sentiment.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.29915255 |
| Address1 | 60 Leveroni Court |
| All Time High | 179.647 |
| All Time Low | 18.29 |
| Ask | 25.29 |
| Ask Size | 17 |
| Audit Risk | 5 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.5 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,673,680 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,191,398 |
| Average Volume | 2,191,398 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,673,680 |
| Beta | 0.247 |
| Bid | 24.5 |
| Bid Size | 17 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | -0.83 |
| City | Novato |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 10 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 24.81 |
| Current Ratio | 2.477 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,774,915,200 |
| Day High | 25.24 |
| Day Low | 24.54 |
| Display Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,770,933,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,770,933,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,770,930,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,778,011,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,778,011,200 |
| Ebitda | -500,000,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.74294 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -5.943 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 4.415 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,971,422,976 |
| Eps Current Year | -4.402 |
| Eps Forward | 0.08091 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -5.83 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 22.1988 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 2.6112003 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.117628 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -29.915255 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 42.37 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -17.56 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.41444418 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 18.29 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 6.5199986 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.35647884 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 18.29 - 42.37 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,391,178,600,000 |
| Float Shares | 92,934,208 |
| Forward Eps | 0.08091 |
| Forward P E | 306.637 |
| Free Cashflow | -251,124,992 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,371 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,775,001,600 |
| Gross Margins | -0.27637 |
| Gross Profits | -186,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.03193 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.99113 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 98,317,221 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia, as well as tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. The company's products candidates that are in Phase 3 clinical trials include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of osteogenesis imperfecta; UX111, an AAV9 gene therapy product candidate for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A, or MPS IIIA, a rare lysosomal storage disease; DTX401, an adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapy clinical candidate for the treatment of patients with glycogen storage disease type Ia; DTX301, an AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase; and GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for the treatment of Angelman syndrome. It also develops UX701 that is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Wilson disease; and UX053 for the treatment of glycogen storage disease type III. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. has collaboration and license agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.; Saint Louis University; Baylor Research Institute; REGENXBIO Inc.; GeneTx; Mereo; University of Pennsylvania; Solid Biosciences Inc.; Regeneron; Abeona; and Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California. |
| Long Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 2,439,250,176 |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_117471985 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,767,139,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -575,000,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 2,440,233,425 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 20 |
| Open | 24.94 |
| Operating Cashflow | -466,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.54652 |
| Overall Risk | 8 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 415 483 8800 |
| Post Market Change | 0.58200073 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 2.3458314 |
| Post Market Price | 25.392 |
| Post Market Time | 1,776,461,415 |
| Previous Close | 24.52 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -5.6360745 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | -29.891565 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 3.624443 |
| Profit Margins | -0.85438 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.188 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.45 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.289999 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 1.1827 |
| Regular Market Day High | 25.24 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 24.54 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 24.54 - 25.24 |
| Regular Market Open | 24.94 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 24.52 |
| Regular Market Price | 24.81 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,776,456,000 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,691,997 |
| Return On Assets | -0.22035 |
| Return On Equity | -6.08466 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.259 |
| Revenue Per Share | 6.826 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.38150132 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 98,317,221 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.1161 |
| Shares Short | 11,413,679 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,772,150,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 9,597,141 |
| Short Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1201 |
| Short Ratio | 5.03 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | RARE |
| Target High Price | 84.0 |
| Target Low Price | 25.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 53.3 |
| Target Median Price | 50.5 |
| Total Cash | 680,000,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 7.052 |
| Total Debt | 1,252,000,000 |
| Total Revenue | 673,000,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -5.83 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 28.221325 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -3.4113255 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.12087758 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,691,997 |
| Website | https://www.ultragenyx.com |
| Zip | 94,949 |