Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)Healthcare | Biotechnology | Novato, United States | NasdaqGS
33.22 USD
-0.60
(-1.774%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 2:40 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is fraught with contradictions. Fundamentally, the business is deteriorating; revenue has contracted by 2.2%, and the company is burning cash with negative operating margins and a book value that is deeply impaired. The multi-year price trajectory confirms this structural weakness, having lost nearly half its value over the last nine years, with the most recent annual performance showing another sharp decline. While the analyst consensus is surprisingly bullish with a mean target implying significant upside, this appears to be a 'buy the dip' narrative unsupported by the current operational reality. Short-term, the stock is technically oversold relative to its moving averages, which explains the recent bounce, but the heavy options activity in deep puts suggests smart money is still worried about further downside. The statistical forecast offers no directional clarity, merely reflecting the noise of a struggling asset. Without a confirmed turnaround in revenue growth or a path to profitability, the long-term outlook remains bleak. This is a high-risk speculative vehicle where the potential for a binary event-driven recovery exists, but the probability of continued value destruction remains high given the lack of sustainable fundamentals. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.060113 |
| AutoETS | 0.060329 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.060371 |
| AutoTheta | 0.062058 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 35% |
| H-stat | 4.83 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.289 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.17 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Revenue per Share | 6.722 |
| Market Cap | 3,271,812,096 |
| Forward P/E | 21.43 |
| Beta | 0.31 |
| Profit Margins | -90.90% |
| Website | https://www.ultragenyx.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 2:40 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning aggressively for downside protection with massive volume in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes 12.5, 15, 17.5, 22.5) expiring in late summer and fall, indicating a fear of a significant drop. Conversely, there is notable call volume at strikes 37.5 and 50 for later dates, suggesting a speculative bet on a recovery or rally, but the overwhelming put flow suggests the market is pricing in a continued struggle or a 'double bottom' scenario rather than an immediate breakout.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.15703046 |
| Address1 | 60 Leveroni Court |
| All Time High | 179.647 |
| All Time Low | 18.29 |
| Ask | 40.98 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 5 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.5 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 4,425,850 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,197,145 |
| Average Volume | 2,197,145 |
| Average Volume10Days | 4,425,850 |
| Beta | 0.307 |
| Bid | 23.84 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | -2.408 |
| City | Novato |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 33.22 |
| Current Ratio | 2.022 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 33.3 |
| Day Low | 31.81 |
| Display Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,014,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,014,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,011,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,873,600 |
| Ebitda | -497,000,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.74179 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -8.161 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 6.054 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,055,846,144 |
| Eps Current Year | -4.24481 |
| Eps Forward | 1.55033 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -6.1 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 26.4982 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 6.7218018 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.25367013 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 15.703047 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 39.89 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -6.669998 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.16720979 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 18.29 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 14.93 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.81629306 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 18.29 - 39.89 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,391,178,600,000 |
| Float Shares | 94,509,092 |
| Forward Eps | 1.55033 |
| Forward P E | 21.427696 |
| Free Cashflow | -219,090,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,371 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | -0.28059998 |
| Gross Profits | -188,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.03451 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.0185701 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 98,489,224 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia, as well as tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. The company's products candidates that are in Phase 3 clinical trials include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of osteogenesis imperfecta; UX111, an AAV9 gene therapy product candidate for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A, or MPS IIIA, a rare lysosomal storage disease; DTX401, an adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapy clinical candidate for the treatment of patients with glycogen storage disease type Ia; DTX301, an AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase; and GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for the treatment of Angelman syndrome. It also develops UX701, an adeno-associated AAV9 gene therapy which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Wilson liver disease. The company has collaboration and license agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.; Saint Louis University; Baylor Research Institute; REGENXBIO Inc.; GeneTx; Mereo; University of Pennsylvania; Regeneron; and Abeona. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California. |
| Long Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 3,271,812,096 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_117471985 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -609,000,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 3,330,905,555 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 19 |
| Open | 33.065 |
| Operating Cashflow | -497,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | -1.02206 |
| Overall Risk | 6 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 415 483 8800 |
| Previous Close | 33.82 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -7.826028 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | -13.795682 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 4.8833017 |
| Profit Margins | -0.90896004 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.652 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.47368 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.599998 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -1.77409 |
| Regular Market Day High | 33.3 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 31.81 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 31.81 - 33.3 |
| Regular Market Open | 33.065 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 33.82 |
| Regular Market Price | 33.22 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,800 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,327,332 |
| Return On Assets | -0.25451002 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.022 |
| Revenue Per Share | 6.722 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 98,489,224 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.16469999 |
| Shares Short | 16,217,153 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 14,703,432 |
| Short Name | Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1703 |
| Short Ratio | 5.36 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | RARE |
| Target High Price | 96.0 |
| Target Low Price | 25.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 52.52632 |
| Target Median Price | 48.0 |
| Total Cash | 413,000,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 4.206 |
| Total Debt | 1,200,000,000 |
| Total Revenue | 670,000,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -6.1 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 27.15655 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 6.063452 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.22327769 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,327,332 |
| Website | https://www.ultragenyx.com |
| Zip | 94,949 |