Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)Technology | Software - Infrastructure | New York, United States | NasdaqCM
17.59 USD
-0.40
(-2.223%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 17.54 -0.05 (-0.050%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 7:58 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:17 a.m. EDT
Pagaya presents a compelling asymmetric setup where a turnaround story meets aggressive speculative positioning. Fundamentally, the company has recovered from a brutal multi-year decline, posting a massive +76% gain last year and showing strong operational metrics with 25% operating margins and robust free cash flow. The balance sheet is healthy with a current ratio of 7.3x, though the debt-to-equity ratio remains elevated due to the capital-intensive nature of the ABS business. Valuation is attractive relative to growth, trading at a forward P/E of roughly 5x. The short-term outlook is bullish. Price momentum is building, having broken above key moving averages, and the options market is screaming for upside with heavy call buying at strikes above the current price. This suggests smart money is anticipating a catalyst, likely related to the recently closed loan deal or upcoming earnings. However, the statistical forecasting model offers no help, showing a weak signal with low confidence, which highlights the divergence between the noisy price action and the underlying trend. Long-term, the business appears solid with sustainable margins and cash generation, but the stock carries the baggage of a volatile history and a high beta (5.3x) that amplifies both gains and losses. The lack of a dividend makes it purely a growth/speculative play. While the fundamentals support a buy, the extreme volatility and the fact that the stock is still well below its 52-week high mean investors must tolerate significant drawdowns. It is a high-conviction entry for momentum traders, but a risky hold for those seeking stability. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.099942 |
| AutoTheta | 0.100439 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.101142 |
| AutoETS | 0.101143 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 31% |
| H-stat | 7.34 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.294 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 0.45 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 147.476 |
| Revenue per Share | 16.601 |
| Market Cap | 1,461,676,160 |
| Trailing P/E | 15.71 |
| Forward P/E | 4.98 |
| Beta | 5.34 |
| Profit Margins | 7.39% |
| Website | https://pagaya.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:17 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning aggressively for upside, evidenced by massive out-of-the-money call open interest (OI) walls at strikes like 20, 24, and 25, which significantly outweigh put OI. Implied volatility is elevated for longer-dated calls, suggesting a bet on a significant gap-up event rather than a slow grind. Conversely, put positioning is concentrated at lower strikes (below 15), acting as a hedge against a drop to the 52-week low rather than a bearish thesis. The skew indicates a 'long gamma' bias where traders expect the stock to rally past resistance levels.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.24060786 |
| Address1 | 335 Madison Ave |
| Address2 | 16th Floor |
| All Time High | 414.0 |
| All Time Low | 6.84 |
| Ask | 22.14 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.2 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 5,006,480 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 4,038,267 |
| Average Volume | 4,038,267 |
| Average Volume10Days | 5,006,480 |
| Beta | 5.337 |
| Bid | 13.09 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Book Value | 6.395 |
| City | New York |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 17.59 |
| Current Ratio | 7.305 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 18.285 |
| Day Low | 17.28 |
| Debt To Equity | 147.476 |
| Display Name | Pagaya |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,441,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,441,600 |
| Earnings Growth | 1.838 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 2.129 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,414,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,414,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,414,600 |
| Ebitda | 302,464,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.22753 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 4.055 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.923 |
| Enterprise Value | 1,226,462,080 |
| Eps Current Year | 3.06099 |
| Eps Forward | 3.53405 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.12 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NCM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 15.1091 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 2.4808998 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.16419904 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -24.060785 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 44.99 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -27.400002 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.6090242 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 10.4 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 7.1900005 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.6913462 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 10.4 - 44.99 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,619,011,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 67,182,563 |
| Forward Eps | 3.53405 |
| Forward P E | 4.9772925 |
| Free Cashflow | 185,506,880 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqCM |
| Full Time Employees | 511 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.42854 |
| Gross Profits | 569,667,968 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.09172 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.54057 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 83,096,990 |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure |
| Industry Disp | Software - Infrastructure |
| Industry Key | software-infrastructure |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,022-06-23 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,709,856,000 |
| Last Split Factor | 1:12 |
| Long Business Summary | Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. The company offers Decline Monetization, the flagship product which allows Partners to automatically send rejected loan applications to its network, as well as approve customers they would otherwise decline; Dual Look which allows to assess applications concurrently with its Partners in real time; and First Look that routes designated segments of loan applications to the network for evaluation.It also provides Affiliate Optimizer Engine, a customer acquisition tool which enables Partners to originate loans through third-party affiliate channels; Direct Marketing Engine, that utilizes data network to help Partners target and acquire new customers through direct channels; and FastPass which accelerates the transaction process. Its partners include financial technology companies, incumbent banks and financial institutions, auto finance providers, and residential real estate service providers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in New York, New York. |
| Long Name | Pagaya Technologies Ltd. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 1,461,676,160 |
| Market State | POSTPOST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_716669374 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | 93,983,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 1,494,914,849 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 10 |
| Open | 17.93 |
| Operating Cashflow | 247,376,992 |
| Operating Margins | 0.25163 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 0.05 |
| Phone | 646 710 7714 |
| Post Market Change | -0.049999237 |
| Post Market Change Percent | -0.28424808 |
| Post Market Price | 17.54 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,987,094 |
| Previous Close | 17.99 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 5.7465067 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 2.7505865 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 1.099571 |
| Profit Margins | 0.07387 |
| Quick Ratio | 7.003 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.2 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.4 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -2.22346 |
| Regular Market Day High | 18.285 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 17.28 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 17.28 - 18.285 |
| Regular Market Open | 17.93 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 17.99 |
| Regular Market Price | 17.59 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,800 |
| Regular Market Volume | 2,048,106 |
| Return On Assets | 0.12647 |
| Return On Equity | 0.16261 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.096 |
| Revenue Per Share | 16.601 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Technology |
| Sector Disp | Technology |
| Sector Key | technology |
| Shares Outstanding | 71,808,413 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.13069999 |
| Shares Short | 10,859,978 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 13,164,306 |
| Short Name | Pagaya Technologies Ltd. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1543 |
| Short Ratio | 2.45 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | NY |
| Symbol | PGY |
| Target High Price | 33.0 |
| Target Low Price | 20.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 26.5 |
| Target Median Price | 25.5 |
| Total Cash | 1,259,180,032 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 15.194 |
| Total Debt | 927,998,016 |
| Total Revenue | 1,329,314,944 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.12 |
| Trailing P E | 15.705358 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | 0.0493 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 19.0239 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.4338989 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.07537355 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 2,048,106 |
| Website | https://pagaya.com |
| Zip | 10,017 |