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The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Financial Services | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Mayfield, United States | NYSE
234.48 USD +3.76 (1.630%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 235.93 +1.45 (0.616%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 8 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★★⯪Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:52 a.m. EDT

The long-term investment thesis remains robust, driven by exceptional return on equity and a decade-long price trajectory that has more than sextupled, though the 8.7 percent revenue growth falls short of the elite 15 percent threshold required for a top-tier buy. The near-term outlook is constructive, with price trading well above key moving averages and earnings expectations met, yet the statistical forecast offers little directional certainty. The income profile is attractive with a 6 percent yield, but the payout ratio sits near 70 percent, which limits the margin for error if underwriting conditions deteriorate.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.025612
AutoTheta0.026633
AutoETS0.033744
MSTL_1150.035695
MSTL0.036379
MSTL_700.048224
MSTL_70_1150.049661

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 41%
H-stat 7.86
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.000
Excess Kurtosis 1.60
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-01
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-01
Debt to Equity Ratio 26.174
Revenue per Share 152.533
Market Cap 136,514,256,896
Trailing P/E 11.93
Forward P/E 14.22
Beta 0.25
Profit Margins 12.93%
Website https://www.progressive.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:52 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for volatility with heavy out-of-the-money put volume suggesting downside hedging, while call interest clusters around the 220-255 range indicating a bullish bias with defined targets. The 220 strike acts as a major liquidity wall for both sides.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.04% 6.55% 3.09% 2.29%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-02 0.100000 0.043063
2026-04-02 0.100000 0.051216
2026-01-02 13.600000 6.411465
2025-10-02 0.100000 0.041068
2025-07-03 0.100000 0.038218
2025-04-03 0.100000 0.034843
2025-01-10 4.600000 1.952379
2024-10-03 0.100000 0.039640
2024-07-03 0.100000 0.047558
2024-04-03 0.100000 0.047445
2024-01-18 0.850000 0.500265
2023-10-04 0.100000 0.070343
2023-07-06 0.100000 0.075947
2023-04-05 0.100000 0.068292
2023-01-05 0.100000 0.076028
2022-10-06 0.100000 0.082021
2022-07-06 0.100000 0.083306
2022-04-06 0.100000 0.085565
2022-01-06 0.100000 0.095012
2021-12-17 1.500000 1.485590
2021-10-06 0.100000 0.108378
2021-07-06 0.100000 0.102187
2021-04-06 0.100000 0.104789
2021-01-07 4.600000 4.855394
2020-10-06 0.100000 0.105130
2020-07-06 0.100000 0.125913
2020-04-06 0.100000 0.131596
2020-01-07 2.350000 3.229796
2019-10-04 0.100000 0.130039
2019-07-03 0.100000 0.119546
2019-04-04 0.100000 0.137874
2019-02-01 2.514000 3.820669
2018-02-01 1.125000 2.099664
2017-02-01 0.681000 1.843530
2016-02-01 0.888000 2.913386
2015-02-02 0.686000 2.653772
2014-01-27 1.493000 6.440897
2013-01-23 0.285000 1.259947
2012-11-19 1.000000 4.657662
2012-01-24 0.407000 2.001968
2011-01-25 0.399000 2.010076
2010-12-16 1.000000 5.060729
2010-01-25 0.161000 0.954357
2008-01-17 0.145000 0.805556
2007-08-29 2.000000 9.760859
2006-12-06 0.009000 0.037895
2006-09-06 0.009000 0.037641
2006-06-07 0.030000 0.109971
2006-03-08 0.007500 0.028977
2005-12-07 0.007500 0.024890
2005-09-07 0.007500 0.030647
2005-06-08 0.007500 0.030947
2005-03-09 0.002000 0.009082
2004-12-08 0.007500 0.033087
2004-09-08 0.007500 0.037202
2004-06-09 0.006250 0.028959
2004-03-10 0.006250 0.029457
2003-12-10 0.006250 0.031774
2003-09-10 0.006250 0.034097
2003-06-11 0.006250 0.035336
2003-03-12 0.005750 0.044992
2002-12-11 0.006250 0.046555
2002-09-11 0.006250 0.045612
2002-06-12 0.005750 0.040344
2002-03-06 0.005833 0.043934
2001-12-12 0.005833 0.046983
2001-09-17 0.005833 0.057848
2001-09-10 0.070000 0.675078
2001-06-06 0.005833 0.051696
2001-03-07 0.005833 0.071424
2000-12-06 0.005833 0.067022
2000-09-06 0.005833 0.095233
2000-06-07 0.005417 0.074503
2000-03-08 0.005417 0.127772
1999-12-08 0.005417 0.090283
1999-09-08 0.005417 0.065536
1999-06-09 0.005417 0.044504
1999-03-10 0.005417 0.046598
1998-12-09 0.005417 0.045477
1998-09-09 0.005417 0.061361
1998-06-10 0.005000 0.041487
1998-03-11 0.005000 0.050955
1997-12-10 0.005000 0.054299
1997-09-10 0.005000 0.060453
1997-06-11 0.005000 0.072508
1997-03-12 0.005000 0.087751
1996-12-11 0.005000 0.091954
1996-09-11 0.005000 0.108108
1996-06-12 0.004583 0.117325
1996-03-06 0.004583 0.118590
1995-12-06 0.004583 0.122213
1995-09-06 0.004583 0.119557
1995-06-06 0.004583 0.140565
1995-03-06 0.004583 0.141015
1994-12-05 0.004583 0.164167
1994-09-02 0.004583 0.149142
1994-06-06 0.004167 0.142360
1994-03-07 0.004167 0.147613
1993-12-06 0.004167 0.124234
1993-09-03 0.004167 0.130729
1993-06-07 0.004167 0.170954
1993-03-08 0.004167 0.150388
1992-11-17 0.004167 0.187808
1992-09-04 0.003889 0.230934
1992-06-08 0.003889 0.265410
1992-03-09 0.003889 0.301084
1991-12-09 0.003611 0.265976
1991-09-09 0.003611 0.268726
1991-06-10 0.003611 0.225101
1991-03-04 0.003611 0.219866
1990-12-10 0.003333 0.245500
1990-09-10 0.003333 0.225330
1990-06-04 0.003333 0.291764
1990-03-05 0.003333 0.336809
1989-12-04 0.003056 0.271644
1989-09-01 0.003056 0.283912
1989-06-05 0.003056 0.391168
1989-03-06 0.003056 0.386021
1988-12-05 0.002778 0.410289
1988-09-02 0.002778 0.331977
1988-06-06 0.002778 0.334755
1988-03-07 0.002778 0.349373
1987-12-07 0.002778 0.362020
1987-09-04 0.002778 0.304207
1987-06-08 0.000417 0.051543
Additional Data
dividendRate 13.9
dividendYield 6.02
exDividendDate 2026-07-02
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.4
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0017337032
lastDividendValue 0.1
lastDividendDate 2026-07-02
dividendDate 2026-07-10

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.06730807
Address1 300 North Commons Blvd.
All Time High 292.99
All Time Low 0.046639
Ask 234.0
Ask Size 200
Audit Risk 7
Average Analyst Rating 2.7 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,158,990
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,168,772
Average Volume 3,168,772
Average Volume10Days 3,158,990
Beta 0.246
Bid 233.92
Bid Size 600
Board Risk 2
Book Value 54.861
City Mayfield
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 234.48
Current Ratio 0.301
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 234.99
Day Low 230.9301
Debt To Equity 26.174
Display Name The Progressive
Dividend Date 1,783,641,600
Dividend Rate 13.9
Dividend Yield 6.02
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,777,987,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,777,987,800
Earnings Growth 0.098
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.098
Earnings Timestamp 1,784,118,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,784,118,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,784,118,600
Ebitda 15,148,999,680
Ebitda Margins 0.16941999
Enterprise To Ebitda 9.447
Enterprise To Revenue 1.601
Enterprise Value 143,113,207,808
Eps Current Year 17.48665
Eps Forward 16.49209
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 19.66
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,782,950,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 206.1896
Fifty Day Average Change 28.29039
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.1372057
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -6.730807
Fifty Two Week High 254.93
Fifty Two Week High Change -20.449997
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.08021809
Fifty Two Week Low 189.2
Fifty Two Week Low Change 45.28
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.23932347
Fifty Two Week Range 189.2 - 254.93
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 322,151,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.95
Float Shares 582,098,455
Forward Eps 16.49209
Forward P E 14.217725
Free Cashflow 15,501,625,344
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 70,053
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.18562001
Gross Profits 16,597,000,192
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00252
Held Percent Institutions 0.90492994
Implied Shares Outstanding 582,200,000
Industry Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Disp Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Key insurance-property-casualty
Ir Website http://investors.progressive.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=81824&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,782,950,400
Last Dividend Value 0.1
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,147,996,800
Last Split Factor 4:1
Long Business Summary The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
Long Name The Progressive Corporation
Market us_market
Market Cap 136,514,256,896
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_33352
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 11,559,000,064
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 134,325,184,000
Number Of Analyst Opinions 21
Open 232.28
Operating Cashflow 16,771,999,744
Operating Margins 0.16393
Overall Risk 3
Payout Ratio 0.70699996
Peg Ratio 35.19
Phone 440 461 5000
Post Market Change 1.4450073
Post Market Change Percent 0.6162604
Post Market Price 235.925
Post Market Time 1,783,987,200
Previous Close 230.72
Price Eps Current Year 13.409086
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 4.2740746
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.5267489
Profit Margins 0.12927
Quick Ratio 0.242
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.72
Region US
Regular Market Change 3.75999
Regular Market Change Percent 1.62968
Regular Market Day High 234.99
Regular Market Day Low 230.9301
Regular Market Day Range 230.9301 - 234.99
Regular Market Open 232.28
Regular Market Previous Close 230.72
Regular Market Price 234.48
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 1,428,509
Return On Assets 0.07935
Return On Equity 0.37903
Revenue Growth 0.087
Revenue Per Share 152.533
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 582,200,000
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0134000005
Shares Short 7,791,620
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 7,094,519
Short Name Progressive Corporation (The)
Short Percent Of Float 0.0134000005
Short Ratio 2.09
Source Interval 15
State OH
Symbol PGR
Target High Price 313.0
Target Low Price 190.0
Target Mean Price 234.7143
Target Median Price 235.0
Total Cash 2,288,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 3.916
Total Debt 8,385,999,872
Total Revenue 89,415,000,064
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.4
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0017337032
Trailing Eps 19.66
Trailing P E 11.926755
Trailing Peg Ratio 35.1922
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 213.05286
Two Hundred Day Average Change 21.42714
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.10057194
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,428,509
Website https://www.progressive.com
Zip 44,143