Oatly Group AB (OTLY)Consumer Defensive | Packaged Foods | Malmö, Sweden | NasdaqGS
10.00 USD
+0.15
(1.523%)
⇧
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:20 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Oatly is currently broken by a catastrophic failure in both fundamentals and capital structure. The company is trapped in a multi-year freefall, having lost over 97% of its value since 2021, with four consecutive years of negative annual returns. This is not a temporary correction; the balance sheet is imploding, with debt-to-equity exceeding 12,000% and negative free cash flow, indicating the business is burning cash without generating returns. The market has correctly priced this as a value trap where the low share price reflects a deteriorating enterprise, not a bargain. Compounding the distress, the options market is screaming 'sell,' with traders aggressively buying deep out-of-the-money puts to insure against further ruin while offering almost no leverage for a recovery. With no dividend to provide income and a statistical forecast leaning negative despite low confidence, the only rational stance is avoidance until the company demonstrates a path to profitability and balance sheet repair. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_55_126 ✓ | 0.131539 |
| MSTL_126 | 0.150912 |
| MSTL_55 | 0.152888 |
| AutoETS | 0.160800 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.161731 |
| MSTL | 0.167498 |
| AutoTheta | 0.209787 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_55_126
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 38% |
| H-stat | 2.79 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.109 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 0.03 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Defensive |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 12035.842 |
| Revenue per Share | 29.096 |
| Market Cap | 312,249,984 |
| Forward P/E | -4.84 |
| Beta | 1.85 |
| Profit Margins | -17.05% |
| Website | https://www.oatly.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:20 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes at $5 and $6) compared to negligible call volume. While there is some speculative call activity targeting a rebound to $14-$15 by September, the sheer volume of put buying suggests a dominant fear of further collapse rather than a belief in a sustainable rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.24405217 |
| Address1 | AngfAerjekajen 8 |
| All Time High | 580.0 |
| All Time Low | 6.0 |
| Ask | 12.49 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.2 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 79,070 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 93,149 |
| Average Volume | 93,149 |
| Average Volume10Days | 79,070 |
| Beta | 1.847 |
| Bid | 9.88 |
| Bid Size | 1 |
| Book Value | 0.113 |
| City | Malmö |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Country | Sweden |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 10.0 |
| Current Ratio | 0.455 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 10.17 |
| Day Low | 9.62 |
| Debt To Equity | 12,035.842 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,784,750,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,784,750,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,784,723,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,784,723,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,784,723,400 |
| Ebitda | -17,716,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.01983 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -45.771 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.908 |
| Enterprise Value | 810,876,992 |
| Eps Current Year | -2.495 |
| Eps Forward | -2.065 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -5.0 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 9.5277 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.47229958 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.049571205 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -24.405216 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 18.84 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -8.84 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.46921444 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 8.01 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.9899998 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.24843942 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 8.01 - 18.84 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,621,517,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 11,303,450 |
| Forward Eps | -2.065 |
| Forward P E | -4.8426147 |
| Free Cashflow | -7,755,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,379 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.32584998 |
| Gross Profits | 291,067,008 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.10288999 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.57691 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 31,225,000 |
| Industry | Packaged Foods |
| Industry Disp | Packaged Foods |
| Industry Key | packaged-foods |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,021-05-20 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,739,836,800 |
| Last Split Factor | 1:20 |
| Long Business Summary | Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, China, Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland, and Switzerland. Its oatmilk portfolio includes original, low-fat, full-fat, chocolate flavored, unsweetened, and Super Basic, which are offered in ambient and chilled packaging. The company offers Barista edition oatmilk; matcha; Oatgurts, which are oat-based yogurts; frozen desserts; cooking products, including regular and organic cooking cream, crème fraiche, whipping cream, vanilla custard, and spreads in a variety of flavors; and ready-to-go drinks. It sells its products through including foodservice, food retail, and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. Oatly Group AB was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden. |
| Long Name | Oatly Group AB |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 312,249,984 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_685045828 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -152,347,008 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 314,748,000 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 5 |
| Open | 9.82 |
| Operating Cashflow | -15,366,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.05258 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 46 4 18 47 55 00 |
| Previous Close | 9.85 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -4.008016 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 88.495575 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.3495646 |
| Profit Margins | -0.17055 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.288 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.2 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.15 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 1.52284 |
| Regular Market Day High | 10.17 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 9.62 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 9.62 - 10.17 |
| Regular Market Open | 9.82 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 9.85 |
| Regular Market Price | 10.0 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,800 |
| Regular Market Volume | 80,210 |
| Return On Assets | -0.04305 |
| Return On Equity | -2.4158502 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.156 |
| Revenue Per Share | 29.096 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Defensive |
| Sector Key | consumer-defensive |
| Shares Outstanding | 31,225,000 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0207 |
| Shares Short | 647,900 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 512,246 |
| Short Name | Oatly Group AB |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0476 |
| Short Ratio | 4.35 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | OTLY |
| Target High Price | 29.0 |
| Target Low Price | 12.5 |
| Target Mean Price | 18.5 |
| Target Median Price | 14.0 |
| Total Cash | 49,414,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 1.583 |
| Total Debt | 547,028,992 |
| Total Revenue | 893,254,016 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -5.0 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 11.674925 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.6749249 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.14346343 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 80,210 |
| Website | https://www.oatly.com |
| Zip | 211 19 |