Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)Financial Services | Insurance - Specialty | New York, United States | NYSE
4.75 USD
+0.06
(1.279%)
⇧
(Oct. 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 4:03 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Octave Specialty Group is currently broken by a perfect storm of deteriorating fundamentals and overwhelming bearish sentiment. The company is trapped in a multi-year structural decline, having lost nearly 60% of its value over the last nine years with three consecutive years of negative annual returns. Fundamentally, the business is bleeding cash with negative operating margins and a return on equity of -6.8%, despite reporting a 51% revenue growth figure that appears disconnected from the reality of shrinking profitability and a massive debt load relative to equity. The balance sheet is fragile, with a current ratio below 1.0 and significant leverage. Compounding this distress, the options market is screaming 'sell'; traders are buying deep out-of-the-money puts as insurance against further drops, while call activity is virtually non-existent. With no dividend to provide income and a statistical forecast showing no directional edge, the stock offers no margin of safety. The gap between the lofty analyst price targets and the grim operational reality suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the depth of the turnaround required, making this a high-risk speculative trap rather than a value opportunity. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.175408 |
| AutoETS | 0.180599 |
| MSTL | 0.182792 |
| AutoTheta | 0.184024 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 39% |
| H-stat | 2.77 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.122 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 0.23 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 15.311 |
| Revenue per Share | 6.973 |
| Market Cap | 213,994,560 |
| Forward P/E | 8.05 |
| Beta | 0.86 |
| Profit Margins | -51.11% |
| Previous Name | Ambac Financial Group, Inc. |
| Website | https://www.octavegroup.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 4:03 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bearish, positioning heavy put volume and open interest at strikes significantly below the current price (e.g., $3.00 and $4.00) while call activity is negligible. The implied volatility skew shows a massive premium for downside protection compared to upside speculation, indicating a consensus expectation of further decline rather than a rebound.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.43493974 |
| Address1 | 40 Wall Street |
| Address2 | 55th Floor |
| All Time High | 35.61 |
| All Time Low | 3.88 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 500 |
| Audit Risk | 6 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.3 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 609,610 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 502,077 |
| Average Volume | 502,077 |
| Average Volume10Days | 609,610 |
| Beta | 0.863 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 400 |
| Board Risk | 1 |
| Book Value | 15.522 |
| City | New York |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 4.75 |
| Current Ratio | 0.975 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 4.865 |
| Day Low | 4.69 |
| Debt To Equity | 15.311 |
| Display Name | Octave Specialty |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,105,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,105,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,046,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,794,254,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,794,254,400 |
| Ebitda | 7,368,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.02298 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 78.281 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.799 |
| Enterprise Value | 576,773,568 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.17 |
| Eps Forward | 0.59 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -1.98 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 20 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fax | 212 208 3414 |
| Fifty Day Average | 4.671 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.078999996 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.016912866 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -43.493973 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 10.38 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -5.63 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.5423892 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 3.88 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.8699999 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.22422677 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 3.88 - 10.38 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,367,415,000,000 |
| Float Shares | 42,448,862 |
| Forward Eps | 0.59 |
| Forward P E | 8.050848 |
| Free Cashflow | 341,303,360 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 483 |
| Fullday Change | 0.059999943 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 1.2793164 |
| Fullday Price | 4.85 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.62109 |
| Gross Profits | 199,168,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.079229996 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.69761 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 45,051,486 |
| Industry | Insurance - Specialty |
| Industry Disp | Insurance - Specialty |
| Industry Key | insurance-specialty |
| Ir Website | http://ir.ambac.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=80774&p=irol-irhome |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution segment offers property, niche specialty risk, accident and health, miscellaneous specialty, reinsurance, surety, marine and energy, specialty auto, excess and surplus lines commercial package, professional lines, and directors' and officers' insurance. The company was formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York. |
| Long Name | Octave Specialty Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 213,994,560 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_317460 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Name Change Date | 2,026-10-14 |
| Net Income To Common | -90,494,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 186,963,666 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 4.73 |
| Operating Cashflow | -96,981,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.08637 |
| Overall Risk | 3 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 212 658 7470 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.099999905 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 2.105261 |
| Pre Market Price | 4.85 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,791,964,837 |
| Prev Name | Ambac Financial Group, Inc. |
| Previous Close | 4.69 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 27.941175 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | 0.30601725 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.66732746 |
| Profit Margins | -0.51105 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.382 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.33333 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.0599999 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 1.27932 |
| Regular Market Day High | 4.865 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 4.69 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 4.69 - 4.865 |
| Regular Market Open | 4.73 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 4.69 |
| Regular Market Price | 4.75 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,791,921,603 |
| Regular Market Volume | 229,410 |
| Return On Assets | -0.00465 |
| Return On Equity | -0.06762 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.51 |
| Revenue Per Share | 6.973 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.17502642 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 45,051,486 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0313 |
| Shares Short | 1,409,717 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1,729,047 |
| Short Name | Octave Specialty Group, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0337 |
| Short Ratio | 2.69 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | NY |
| Symbol | OSG |
| Target High Price | 15.0 |
| Target Low Price | 8.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 11.66667 |
| Target Median Price | 12.0 |
| Total Cash | 109,301,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 2.426 |
| Total Debt | 155,459,008 |
| Total Revenue | 320,673,984 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -1.98 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 5.38175 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.6317501 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.11738748 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 229,410 |
| Website | https://www.octavegroup.com |
| Zip | 10,005 |