Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)Financial Services | Insurance - Specialty | New York, United States | NYSE
4.64 USD
+0.13
(2.882%)
⇧
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 4.60 -0.04 (-0.040%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:01 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 2:22 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is fundamentally broken. Despite a 51% surge in revenue growth and a 'strong buy' analyst consensus driven by a turnaround narrative, the market has punished the stock relentlessly, delivering a 51.4% cumulative loss over the last nine years. The critical red flag is the trajectory: the company has posted three consecutive years of negative annual returns, signaling a deep structural deterioration that overrides the recent top-line growth. The balance sheet is fragile, with debt significantly exceeding equity and operating cash flows remaining negative despite reported free cash flow anomalies. There is no dividend to cushion the blow, and the options market confirms this pessimism, with traders stacking heavy put positions while call activity remains sparse. The statistical forecast offers only a weak, low-confidence lean upward, which is insufficient to counter the glaring fundamental decay. This is a value trap where the market has correctly identified that the business quality has eroded, making it a dangerous hold for now. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoETS ✓ | 0.138591 |
| MSTL | 0.142758 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.142859 |
| AutoTheta | 0.204989 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoETS
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 32% |
| H-stat | 84.09 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.091 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.47 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 15.311 |
| Revenue per Share | 6.973 |
| Market Cap | 209,038,896 |
| Forward P/E | 8.34 |
| Beta | 0.85 |
| Profit Margins | -51.11% |
| Previous Name | Ambac Financial Group, Inc. |
| Website | https://www.octavegroup.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 2:22 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning heavily for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes $3.00-$4.00) compared to negligible call volume. While there is some call activity at higher strikes ($8.00-$10.00) suggesting a speculative hope for a rebound, the overwhelming weight of capital is in put writing and buying, indicating a bearish sentiment that the stock will struggle to recover from current lows.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.49496078 |
| Address1 | 40 Wall Street |
| Address2 | 55th Floor |
| All Time High | 35.61 |
| All Time Low | 3.88 |
| Ask | 4.6 |
| Ask Size | 600 |
| Audit Risk | 7 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.0 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 351,370 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 463,858 |
| Average Volume | 463,858 |
| Average Volume10Days | 351,370 |
| Beta | 0.85 |
| Bid | 4.59 |
| Bid Size | 800 |
| Board Risk | 1 |
| Book Value | 15.522 |
| City | New York |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 4.64 |
| Current Ratio | 0.975 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 4.83 |
| Day Low | 4.52 |
| Debt To Equity | 15.311 |
| Display Name | Octave Specialty |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,105,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,105,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,046,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,794,254,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,794,254,400 |
| Ebitda | 7,368,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.02298 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 77.608 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.783 |
| Enterprise Value | 571,817,920 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.165 |
| Eps Forward | 0.55667 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -2.01 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fax | 212 208 3414 |
| Fifty Day Average | 5.5646 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.9246001 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.16615751 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -49.49608 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 10.38 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -5.7400002 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.5529865 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 3.88 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.75999975 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.19587623 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 3.88 - 10.38 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,367,415,000,000 |
| Float Shares | 42,455,619 |
| Forward Eps | 0.55667 |
| Forward P E | 8.335279 |
| Free Cashflow | 341,303,360 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 483 |
| Fullday Change | 0.13 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 2.88248 |
| Fullday Price | 4.6 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | 0.62109 |
| Gross Profits | 199,168,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.07908 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.6965 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 45,051,486 |
| Industry | Insurance - Specialty |
| Industry Disp | Insurance - Specialty |
| Industry Key | insurance-specialty |
| Ir Website | http://ir.ambac.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=80774&p=irol-irhome |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution segment offers property, niche specialty risk, accident and health, miscellaneous specialty, reinsurance, surety, marine and energy, specialty auto, excess and surplus lines commercial package, professional lines, and directors' and officers' insurance. The company was formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York. |
| Long Name | Octave Specialty Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 209,038,896 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_317460 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Name Change Date | 2,026-08-29 |
| Net Income To Common | -90,494,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 203,182,201 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 2 |
| Open | 4.65 |
| Operating Cashflow | -96,981,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.08637 |
| Overall Risk | 3 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 212 658 7470 |
| Post Market Change | -0.03999996 |
| Post Market Change Percent | -0.8620682 |
| Post Market Price | 4.6 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,958,069 |
| Prev Name | Ambac Financial Group, Inc. |
| Previous Close | 4.51 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 28.12121 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | 0.29893053 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.6518736 |
| Profit Margins | -0.51105 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.382 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.13 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 2.88248 |
| Regular Market Day High | 4.83 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 4.52 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 4.52 - 4.83 |
| Regular Market Open | 4.65 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 4.51 |
| Regular Market Price | 4.64 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,202 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,265,808 |
| Return On Assets | -0.00465 |
| Return On Equity | -0.06762 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.51 |
| Revenue Per Share | 6.973 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20504117 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 45,051,486 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0348 |
| Shares Short | 1,566,483 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1,424,719 |
| Short Name | Octave Specialty Group, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0374 |
| Short Ratio | 3.55 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | NY |
| Symbol | OSG |
| Target High Price | 15.0 |
| Target Low Price | 12.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 13.5 |
| Target Median Price | 13.5 |
| Total Cash | 109,301,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 2.426 |
| Total Debt | 155,459,008 |
| Total Revenue | 320,673,984 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -2.01 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 6.0346 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.3945999 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.23110065 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,265,808 |
| Website | https://www.octavegroup.com |
| Zip | 10,005 |