Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)Healthcare | Biotechnology | Gaithersburg, United States | NasdaqGS
9.26 USD
+0.21
(2.320%)
⇧
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 9.27 +0.01 (0.108%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:59 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 4:57 a.m. EDT
Novavax presents a stark dichotomy between a fundamentally broken business and a speculative vehicle for a potential miracle. The long-term outlook is severely compromised; the company is hemorrhaging cash with negative operating margins, shrinking revenues, and a balance sheet that has been decimated by years of decline. The stock has lost nearly 95% of its value over the last decade, and despite a recent uptick, the fundamentals remain dire with no visible path to profitability. However, the short-term picture is driven entirely by options flow, where traders are buying deep out-of-the-money calls like lottery tickets, betting on a sudden regulatory or scientific turnaround. This creates a volatile environment where the stock could gap up on news, but the underlying business quality does not support a sustained investment thesis. For now, this is a high-risk speculation on a binary event, not a value investment. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.176167 |
| AutoETS | 0.176503 |
| MSTL | 0.176637 |
| AutoTheta | 0.246198 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 36% |
| H-stat | 5.22 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.208 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.19 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Revenue per Share | 2.536 |
| Market Cap | 1,527,397,504 |
| Forward P/E | -15.08 |
| Beta | 2.42 |
| Profit Margins | -59.87% |
| Website | https://www.novavax.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 4:57 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant volatility rather than a clear directional move. Call volume is heavily skewed toward out-of-the-money strikes (especially the $30 strike for Jan 2027), indicating a speculative bet on a massive recovery or biotech event, while put volume remains concentrated near the money ($7-$9 range) acting as a hedge against continued weakness. The heavy open interest in deep OTM calls suggests a 'lottery ticket' mentality among retail traders hoping for a vaccine breakthrough or FDA approval catalyst, whereas institutional hedging appears limited.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.22649002 |
| Address1 | 21 Firstfield Road |
| All Time High | 331.68 |
| All Time Low | 3.53 |
| Ask | 11.0 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 6 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 5,563,980 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 4,097,595 |
| Average Volume | 4,097,595 |
| Average Volume10Days | 5,563,980 |
| Beta | 2.416 |
| Bid | 6.59 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | -1.157 |
| City | Gaithersburg |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 10 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 9.26 |
| Current Ratio | 2.333 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 9.34 |
| Day Low | 8.89 |
| Display Name | Novavax |
| Dividend Date | 1,557,446,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,019,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,019,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,019,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,881,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,881,800 |
| Ebitda | -101,552,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.24542 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -10.885 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 2.671 |
| Enterprise Value | 1,105,376,384 |
| Eps Current Year | -0.86 |
| Eps Forward | -0.61391 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -1.57 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 8.4618 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.7982006 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.094329886 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 22.649002 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 11.97 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -2.71 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.22639933 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 6.2 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 3.0600004 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.49354848 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 6.2 - 11.97 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 818,173,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 142,524,653 |
| Forward Eps | -0.61391 |
| Forward P E | -15.083644 |
| Free Cashflow | 153,394,432 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 749 |
| Fullday Change | 0.21 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 2.32044 |
| Fullday Price | 9.27 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | -0.02558 |
| Gross Profits | -10,583,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.050619997 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.69009 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 164,945,726 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Ir Website | http://www.novavax.com/go.cfm?do=Stock.GetQuote |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,557,446,400 |
| Last Split Factor | 1:20 |
| Long Business Summary | Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland. |
| Long Name | Novavax, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 1,527,397,504 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_350381 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -247,730,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 1,492,758,820 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 9 |
| Open | 9.18 |
| Operating Cashflow | -36,901,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.89608 |
| Overall Risk | 7 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 1.32 |
| Phone | 240 268 2000 |
| Post Market Change | 0.010000229 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.107993826 |
| Post Market Price | 9.27 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,961,572 |
| Previous Close | 9.05 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -10.767442 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | -8.003458 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 3.6911848 |
| Profit Margins | -0.59868 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.233 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.21 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 2.32044 |
| Regular Market Day High | 9.34 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 8.89 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 8.89 - 9.34 |
| Regular Market Open | 9.18 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 9.05 |
| Regular Market Price | 9.26 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,200 |
| Regular Market Volume | 4,196,996 |
| Return On Assets | -0.0651 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.763 |
| Revenue Per Share | 2.536 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20204377 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 164,945,726 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.2879 |
| Shares Short | 47,494,355 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 43,821,227 |
| Short Name | Novavax, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.2898 |
| Short Ratio | 15.44 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | MD |
| Symbol | NVAX |
| Target High Price | 25.0 |
| Target Low Price | 7.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 14.00222 |
| Target Median Price | 16.02 |
| Total Cash | 719,340,032 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 4.361 |
| Total Debt | 297,319,008 |
| Total Revenue | 413,796,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -1.57 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 8.47905 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.78095055 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.09210355 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 4,196,996 |
| Website | https://www.novavax.com |
| Zip | 20,878 |