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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

Energy | Oil & Gas E&P | Minnetonka, United States | NYSE
20.36 USD +1.84 (9.935%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 20.50 +0.14 (0.688%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:58 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 6:22 a.m. EDT

The long-term investment case is severely compromised by deteriorating fundamentals. Despite a low forward P/E, the company is generating negative operating margins and negative free cash flow, with revenue shrinking by 7%. The balance sheet is fragile, carrying debt nearly 143 times equity, which leaves little room for error in a volatile commodity environment. While the massive dividend yield of 9.6% is attractive on paper, the payout ratio of 460% confirms that the distribution is being funded entirely by borrowing and capital depletion rather than earnings; this is a classic value trap where the yield is a signal of distress, not income. The short-term outlook remains cautious; although the stock recently rallied off its lows, the statistical forecast models show a weak bearish lean, and options flow continues to favor downside protection. Investors should view this as a speculative turnaround play with high risk of permanent capital loss, rather than a stable income vehicle.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.102770
AutoETS0.115454
AutoARIMA0.115455
MSTL0.117878

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 37%
H-stat 17.60
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.386
Excess Kurtosis -0.99
Attribute Value
Sector Energy
Ex Dividend Date 2026-06-28
Last Dividend Date 2026-06-28
Debt to Equity Ratio 142.991
Revenue per Share 19.706
Market Cap 2,214,845,440
Forward P/E 5.07
Beta 0.71
Profit Margins -32.36%
Website https://www.noginc.com

As of July 11, 2026, 6:22 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume and open interest at strikes below the current price (14, 15, 18), while call activity remains sparse and concentrated at distant strikes. The significant volume spike in September puts suggests a fear of a gap-down event or continued weakness, whereas the lack of aggressive call buying indicates a lack of conviction in an immediate recovery.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.53% 7.87% 5.77% 4.64%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-29 0.450 2.532358
2026-03-30 0.450 1.504514
2025-12-30 0.450 2.080444
2025-09-29 0.450 1.750973
2025-06-27 0.450 1.552795
2025-03-28 0.450 1.492537
2024-12-30 0.420 1.148168
2024-09-27 0.420 1.194200
2024-06-27 0.400 1.061290
2024-03-27 0.400 1.025115
2023-12-27 0.400 1.039231
2023-09-27 0.380 0.928188
2023-06-28 0.370 1.104148
2023-03-29 0.340 1.137885
2022-12-28 0.300 0.998004
2022-09-28 0.250 0.904814
2022-06-28 0.190 0.665966
2022-03-29 0.140 0.505051
2021-12-29 0.080 0.386847
2021-09-29 0.045 0.210280
2021-06-29 0.030 0.151745
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.8
dividendYield 9.72
exDividendDate 2026-06-29
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.8
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.09719222
lastDividendValue 0.45
lastDividendDate 2026-06-29
dividendDate 2026-07-31

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.36963922
Address1 4,350 Baker Road
Address2 Suite 400
All Time High 339.8
All Time Low 3.35
Ask 20.41
Ask Size 1,500
Audit Risk 4
Average Analyst Rating 2.4 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 4,432,090
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,058,855
Average Volume 3,058,855
Average Volume10Days 4,432,090
Beta 0.713
Bid 20.0
Bid Size 300
Board Risk 2
Book Value 16.941
City Minnetonka
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 1
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 20.36
Current Ratio 0.526
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 20.435
Day Low 19.095
Debt To Equity 142.991
Display Name Northern Oil and Gas
Dividend Date 1,785,456,000
Dividend Rate 1.8
Dividend Yield 9.72
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,132,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,132,800
Earnings Timestamp 1,786,046,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,786,046,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,786,046,400
Ebitda 1,447,038,976
Ebitda Margins 0.75163
Enterprise To Ebitda 3.22
Enterprise To Revenue 2.42
Enterprise Value 4,658,967,040
Eps Current Year 3.75502
Eps Forward 4.01311
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -6.32
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,782,691,200
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 21.7554
Fifty Day Average Change -1.3953991
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.06414036
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -36.96392
Fifty Two Week High 31.17
Fifty Two Week High Change -10.809999
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.3468078
Fifty Two Week Low 17.18
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.1800003
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.18509896
Fifty Two Week Range 17.18 - 31.17
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,176,471,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 3.74
Float Shares 102,211,429
Forward Eps 4.01311
Forward P E 5.073372
Free Cashflow -13,380,500
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 64
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.74581003
Gross Profits 1,435,826,048
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.02834
Held Percent Institutions 1.0680699
Implied Shares Outstanding 108,784,154
Industry Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Disp Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Key oil-gas-e-p
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,782,691,200
Last Dividend Value 0.45
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,600,646,400
Last Split Factor 1:10
Long Business Summary Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Long Name Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 2,214,845,440
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_30822601
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common -623,068,032
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,014,682,532
Number Of Analyst Opinions 9
Open 19.27
Operating Cashflow 1,421,476,992
Operating Margins -0.73636
Overall Risk 2
Payout Ratio 4.6154003
Peg Ratio 0.65
Phone 952 476 9800
Post Market Change 0.13999939
Post Market Change Percent 0.68761975
Post Market Price 20.5
Post Market Time 1,783,987,120
Previous Close 18.52
Price Eps Current Year 5.4220753
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.2018181
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.1504501
Profit Margins -0.32364
Quick Ratio 0.496
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.44444
Region US
Regular Market Change 1.84
Regular Market Change Percent 9.93521
Regular Market Day High 20.435
Regular Market Day Low 19.095
Regular Market Day Range 19.095 - 20.435
Regular Market Open 19.27
Regular Market Previous Close 18.52
Regular Market Price 20.36
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 4,373,858
Return On Assets 0.043119997
Return On Equity -0.29766
Revenue Growth -0.071
Revenue Per Share 19.706
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Energy
Sector Disp Energy
Sector Key energy
Share Holder Rights Risk 5
Shares Outstanding 108,784,154
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.19299999
Shares Short 20,999,218
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 17,432,322
Short Name Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.22860001
Short Ratio 6.07
Source Interval 15
State MN
Symbol NOG
Target High Price 38.0
Target Low Price 25.0
Target Mean Price 32.88889
Target Median Price 33.0
Total Cash 37,041,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.352
Total Debt 2,551,527,936
Total Revenue 1,925,198,976
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.8
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.09719222
Trailing Eps -6.32
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 23.8562
Two Hundred Day Average Change -3.4961987
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.14655304
Type Disp Equity
Volume 4,373,858
Website https://www.noginc.com
Zip 55,343