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National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)

Communication Services | Advertising Agencies | Centennial, United States | NasdaqGS
3.99 USD +0.09 (2.308%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 6:41 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is fractured by a stark divergence between a precarious business reality and a fragile income stream. Fundamentally, the company is in a severe structural decline; despite a recent tick up in the trailing twelve months, the last nine years have seen a catastrophic -97% cumulative return, driven by five consecutive years of negative annual growth. The business is currently losing money on operations, with negative margins and a shrinking revenue base, while trading at a forward P/E that implies a turnaround that the data does not yet support. This is not a value trap; it is a deteriorating asset where the market has correctly priced out the future prospects. The dividend, yielding over 3%, is a dangerous distraction. It is not a sign of strength but a symptom of distress, funded by a company that is burning cash and reporting losses. The payout is barely covering the cost of capital given the negative free cash flow trends and represents a return of equity rather than sustainable profit distribution. While the short-term price action shows some resilience and options flow hints at a potential bounce to $5, the underlying engine is stalled. Investors chasing yield here are likely buying a slow-motion value destruction story.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.063642
MSTL0.064492
AutoETS0.065422
MSTL_660.065642
AutoTheta0.072723
MSTL_66_970.076498
MSTL_970.081792

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 27%
H-stat 5.80
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.022
Excess Kurtosis -0.10
Attribute Value
Sector Communication Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-21
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-21
Debt to Equity Ratio 6.468
Revenue per Share 2.588
Market Cap 374,183,360
Forward P/E 27.52
Beta 1.37
Profit Margins -3.51%
Website https://www.ncm.com

As of July 11, 2026, 6:41 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a modest rebound toward the $5.00 strike, evidenced by heavy out-of-the-money call open interest relative to the deep out-of-the-money put wall at $2.50. However, the massive volume of puts at the $2.50 strike suggests a significant floor or hedging demand against further downside, creating a volatile range-bound outlook rather than a clear directional bet.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.00% 3.31% 1.47% 2.85%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-22 0.03 1.003344
2026-03-09 0.03 0.849858
2025-11-10 0.03 0.769231
2025-08-15 0.03 0.683371
2025-05-16 0.03 0.587084
2025-03-24 0.03 0.514580
2022-08-19 0.30 1.973684
2022-05-20 0.30 2.362205
2022-03-16 0.50 1.992032
2021-11-19 0.50 1.524390
2021-08-20 0.50 2.000000
2021-05-20 0.50 1.096491
2021-03-19 0.50 0.915751
2020-11-13 0.70 2.317881
2020-08-14 0.70 2.208202
2020-05-15 0.70 2.681992
2020-03-02 1.90 2.536716
2019-11-13 1.70 2.348066
2019-08-14 1.70 2.587519
2019-05-15 1.70 2.278820
2019-03-04 1.70 2.219321
2018-11-14 1.70 2.397743
2018-08-15 1.70 1.936219
2018-05-17 1.70 2.348066
2018-03-21 1.70 3.057554
2017-11-15 2.20 3.852890
2017-08-09 2.20 3.630363
2017-05-16 2.20 2.968961
2017-03-07 2.20 1.760000
2016-11-16 2.20 1.461794
2016-08-23 2.20 1.473543
2016-05-17 2.20 1.620029
2016-03-08 2.20 1.501706
2015-11-18 2.20 1.457919
2015-08-18 2.20 1.535241
2015-05-21 2.20 1.354680
2015-03-10 2.20 1.484480
2014-11-18 2.20 1.572552
2014-08-19 2.20 1.496599
2014-05-15 2.20 1.425794
2014-03-04 7.20 4.639175
2013-11-08 2.20 1.249290
2013-08-13 2.20 1.217488
2013-05-14 2.20 1.307190
2013-03-05 2.20 1.452145
2012-11-13 2.20 1.604668
2012-08-14 2.20 1.556971
2012-05-15 2.20 1.605839
2012-03-06 2.20 1.441678
2011-11-15 2.20 1.665405
2011-08-16 2.20 1.526717
2011-05-17 2.00 1.245330
2011-03-08 2.00 1.100715
2010-11-16 2.00 1.059883
2010-08-17 1.80 1.107011
2010-05-18 1.80 0.976139
2010-03-16 1.60 0.898372
2009-11-17 1.60 1.042345
2009-08-18 1.60 1.132343
2009-05-19 1.60 1.344538
2009-03-17 1.60 1.192250
2008-11-18 1.60 1.866978
2008-08-19 1.60 1.347936
2008-05-19 1.50 0.754527
2008-03-10 1.50 0.684307
2007-11-19 1.50 0.545852
2007-08-21 1.50 0.601443
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.12
dividendYield 3.01
exDividendDate 2026-05-22
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.12
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.030769229
lastDividendValue 0.03
lastDividendDate 2026-05-22
dividendDate 2026-06-04

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.163522
Address1 6,300 South Syracuse Way
Address2 Suite 300
All Time High 298.0
All Time Low 1.0
Ask 5.03
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 6
Average Daily Volume10 Day 369,790
Average Daily Volume3 Month 391,614
Average Volume 391,614
Average Volume10Days 369,790
Beta 1.371
Bid 2.85
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 2
Book Value 3.685
City Centennial
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 7
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 3.99
Current Ratio 1.815
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 4.035
Day Low 3.895
Debt To Equity 6.468
Display Name National CineMedia
Dividend Date 1,780,531,200
Dividend Rate 0.12
Dividend Yield 3.01
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,619,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,619,600
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,616,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,960,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,960,000
Ebitda 20,800,000
Ebitda Margins 0.085839994
Enterprise To Ebitda 16.725
Enterprise To Revenue 1.436
Enterprise Value 347,883,360
Eps Current Year -0.01
Eps Forward 0.145
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -0.1
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,779,408,000
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 3.4736
Fifty Day Average Change 0.5164001
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.14866424
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -16.3522
Fifty Two Week High 5.14
Fifty Two Week High Change -1.1499999
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.22373539
Fifty Two Week Low 2.78
Fifty Two Week Low Change 1.21
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.4352518
Fifty Two Week Range 2.78 - 5.14
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,170,945,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 16.07
Float Shares 65,322,660
Forward Eps 0.145
Forward P E 27.517242
Free Cashflow 34,037,500
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 248
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.45068002
Gross Profits 109,200,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.013040001
Held Percent Institutions 0.9204
Implied Shares Outstanding 93,780,289
Industry Advertising Agencies
Industry Disp Advertising Agencies
Industry Key advertising-agencies
Ir Website http://investor.ncm.com/
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,779,408,000
Last Dividend Value 0.03
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,225,600
Last Split Date 1,691,107,200
Last Split Factor 1:10
Long Business Summary National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. It also sells digital advertising, including through NCM Boost, a data, insights and analytics platform that utilizes data; NCM Boost, a audience accelerator digital product; NCM Boomerang, retargeting solution designed to amplify post-theatre engagement; NCM Bullseye, an AI-generated creative to deliver dynamic and hyper-localized messaging; and NCM Blueprint, a real-time renovation permit data to identify homeowners who are actively engaged in remodelling projects. It offers its services to national and local sales groups. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.
Long Name National CineMedia, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 374,183,360
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_7958431
Most Recent Quarter 1,775,088,000
Net Income To Common -8,500,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,761,600
Non Diluted Market Cap 374,183,353
Number Of Analyst Opinions 4
Open 3.91
Operating Cashflow 20,500,000
Operating Margins -0.77647
Overall Risk 5
Payout Ratio 0.0
Peg Ratio 0.7
Phone 303 792 3600
Previous Close 3.9
Price Eps Current Year -399.0
Price Hint 4
Price To Book 1.082768
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.5442978
Profit Margins -0.03508
Quick Ratio 1.713
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0899999
Regular Market Change Percent 2.30769
Regular Market Day High 4.035
Regular Market Day Low 3.895
Regular Market Day Range 3.895 - 4.035
Regular Market Open 3.91
Regular Market Previous Close 3.9
Regular Market Price 3.99
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,800
Regular Market Volume 233,054
Return On Assets -0.01787
Return On Equity -0.023759998
Revenue Growth -0.026
Revenue Per Share 2.588
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Communication Services
Sector Disp Communication Services
Sector Key communication-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 93,780,289
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0783
Shares Short 7,342,601
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 6,986,191
Short Name National CineMedia, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.1312
Short Ratio 14.26
Source Interval 15
State CO
Symbol NCMI
Target High Price 6.0
Target Low Price 4.0
Target Mean Price 5.25
Target Median Price 5.5
Total Cash 48,600,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.518
Total Debt 22,300,000
Total Revenue 242,300,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.12
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.030769229
Trailing Eps -0.1
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 3.7224
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.26760006
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.07188912
Type Disp Equity
Volume 233,054
Website https://www.ncm.com
Zip 80,111