Simplify MBS ETF (MTBA)Intermediate Government | Exchange Traded Fund | NYSEArca
47.36 USD
+0.01
(0.032%)
⇧
(Oct. 16, 2026, 9:39 a.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 11:20 a.m. EDT
The Simplify MBS ETF is currently trapped in a value trap defined by deteriorating spreads and persistent underperformance. Despite a headline-grabbing 5.65% yield, the underlying asset quality is degrading; the fund has lost nearly 1% year-to-date as agency MBS carry has compressed, and recent headlines explicitly warn of limited upside due to narrowing spreads. The price action confirms this structural weakness, trading near its 52-week low and failing to recover from the October lows. While the dividend is robust and consistent, it is likely propping up the price rather than reflecting genuine business strength, creating a scenario where capital gains are unlikely to materialize. The statistical forecast model, which relies on short-term noise, correctly identifies a flat-to-negative bias, but the fundamental reality is worse: the thesis for holding MBS is currently broken. Investors should view this as a speculative income play with significant downside risk, not a core holding. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.011501 |
| MSTL | 0.011557 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.011652 |
| AutoETS | 0.011652 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 75% |
| H-stat | 94.18 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.050 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.55 |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 11:20 a.m. EDT: Speculator positioning is extremely thin and skewed toward the downside. Call volume is virtually non-existent, while put open interest exists at the money, indicating a defensive stance rather than aggressive speculation. Implied volatility is elevated on the short-dated puts relative to calls, suggesting fear of further downside or stagnation rather than an expectation of a rally.
| Last Yield | 1yr Yield | 3yr Avg | 5yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49% | 5.90% | — | — |
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 0.230 | 0.488634 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.230 | 0.473446 |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.230 | 0.473105 |
| 2026-06-25 | 0.230 | 0.467480 |
| 2026-05-26 | 0.240 | 0.489796 |
| 2026-04-27 | 0.240 | 0.484066 |
| 2026-03-26 | 0.240 | 0.489696 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.250 | 0.494364 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.250 | 0.495688 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.280 | 0.556328 |
| 2025-11-21 | 0.250 | 0.496623 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.250 | 0.494462 |
| 2025-09-25 | 0.250 | 0.497018 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.250 | 0.497018 |
| 2025-07-28 | 0.250 | 0.503119 |
| 2025-06-25 | 0.250 | 0.501505 |
| 2025-05-27 | 0.250 | 0.505766 |
| 2025-04-25 | 0.250 | 0.501002 |
| 2025-03-26 | 0.250 | 0.500500 |
| 2025-02-25 | 0.250 | 0.498405 |
| 2025-01-28 | 0.250 | 0.502917 |
| 2024-12-23 | 0.248 | 0.500808 |
| 2024-11-25 | 0.250 | 0.497216 |
| 2024-10-28 | 0.250 | 0.499301 |
| 2024-09-25 | 0.250 | 0.485767 |
| 2024-08-27 | 0.250 | 0.486192 |
| 2024-07-26 | 0.250 | 0.492708 |
| 2024-06-25 | 0.250 | 0.494560 |
| 2024-05-24 | 0.250 | 0.497314 |
| 2024-04-25 | 0.250 | 0.503931 |
| 2024-03-25 | 0.250 | 0.491449 |
| 2024-02-26 | 0.250 | 0.494658 |
| 2024-01-26 | 0.250 | 0.488950 |
| 2023-12-26 | 0.246 | 0.477855 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| All Time High | 51.97 |
| All Time Low | 46.53 |
| Ask | 47.62 |
| Ask Size | 800 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 345,070 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 325,195 |
| Average Volume | 325,195 |
| Average Volume10Days | 345,070 |
| Beta3 Year | 0.0 |
| Bid | 47.06 |
| Bid Size | 1,000 |
| Category | Intermediate Government |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Day High | 47.3594 |
| Day Low | 47.33 |
| Dividend Yield | 5.65 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | PCX |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 47.86456 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.50955963 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.0106458645 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -6.62722 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 50.8 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -3.4449997 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.06781495 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 46.53 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.82500076 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.017730514 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 46.53 - 50.8 |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,699,367,400,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSEArca |
| Fullday Change | 0.01499939 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.031684387 |
| Fullday Price | 47.355 |
| Fund Family | Simplify Asset Management |
| Fund Inception Date | 1,699,228,800 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Legal Type | Exchange Traded Fund |
| Long Business Summary | The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in mortgage-backed securities. The advisor defines MBS as any agency or non-agency residential or commercial mortgage-backed security and any futures contract, forward agreement, swap contract, or option linked to the preceding. It is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing primarily in MBS’s issued by the Government National Mortgage Association, Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. |
| Long Name | Simplify MBS ETF |
| Market | us_market |
| Market State | REGULAR |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_1855793511 |
| Nav Price | 47.2021 |
| Net Assets | 1,075,681,540.0 |
| Net Expense Ratio | 0.15 |
| Open | 47.48 |
| Phone | 614-469-3294 |
| Previous Close | 47.34 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | ETF |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.01499939 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.031684387 |
| Regular Market Day High | 47.3594 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 47.33 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 47.33 - 47.3594 |
| Regular Market Open | 47.48 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 47.34 |
| Regular Market Price | 47.355 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,157,974 |
| Regular Market Volume | 2,124 |
| Short Name | Simplify MBS ETF |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | MTBA |
| Total Assets | 1,075,681,536 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Trailing Three Month Nav Returns | -3.55425 |
| Trailing Three Month Returns | -3.55425 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 49.203876 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.848877 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.03757584 |
| Type Disp | ETF |
| Volume | 2,124 |
| Yield | 0.056500003 |
| Ytd Return | -3.26626 |