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Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL)

Financial Services | Asset Management | New York, United States | NYSE
13.03 USD -0.26 (-1.956%) ⇩ (Oct. 16, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 13.10 +0.07 (0.537%) ⇧ (Oct. 16, 2026, 7:45 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 11:13 a.m. EDT

The long-term outlook remains neutral due to a distinct structural decline. Over the last year, the asset has lost nearly 20% of its value, and the most recent annual return was negative. While the business generates strong operating margins and offers a robust dividend yield, the market has clearly priced in a deterioration in the underlying lending portfolio or growth prospects, evidenced by the sharp drop in share price and negative year-over-year performance. The short-term view is similarly cautious; recent price action shows the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day averages, confirming a downtrend. Although the high dividend yield provides a floor, the capital appreciation potential is currently suppressed by these fundamental headwinds and the heavy speculative hedging seen in the options chain.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.060236
AutoARIMA0.070278
AutoETS0.070285
MSTL0.070849

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 49%
H-stat 139.65
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.084
Excess Kurtosis -1.11
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Debt to Equity Ratio 120.27
Revenue per Share 4.351
Market Cap 1,095,889,664
Trailing P/E 18.88
Forward P/E 7.23
Beta 0.68
Profit Margins 15.97%

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 11:13 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioned for downside protection, with massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 13 and 14) expiring in November and December. This creates a 'put wall' suggesting a fear of further decline. Conversely, call activity is sparse and concentrated in deep out-of-the-money strikes (15, 16, 20), indicating limited bullish conviction for a quick rebound. Implied volatility is elevated on the put side, pricing in significant downside risk.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
3.30% 12.54% — —
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-30 0.45 3.301541
2026-06-30 0.45 2.976190
2026-03-31 0.45 3.223496
2025-12-31 0.50 3.033981
2025-09-30 0.50 3.109453
2025-06-30 0.50 2.670940
2025-03-31 0.50 2.505010
2024-12-31 0.50 2.420136
2024-11-04 0.10 0.509165
2024-09-30 0.50 2.527806
2024-08-05 0.10 0.508130
2024-06-28 0.50 2.288329
2024-03-27 0.50 2.250225
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.8
dividendYield 13.81
exDividendDate 2026-09-30
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.9
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.14296463
lastDividendValue 0.45
lastDividendDate 2026-09-30

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.22990543
Address1 1,585 Broadway
All Time High 24.18
All Time Low 12.94
Ask 13.05
Ask Size 600
Average Daily Volume10 Day 527,390
Average Daily Volume3 Month 467,553
Average Volume 467,553
Average Volume10Days 527,390
Beta 0.684
Bid 13.0
Bid Size 300
Book Value 19.5
City New York
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 13.03
Current Ratio 1.52
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 13.35
Day Low 13.03
Debt To Equity 120.27
Display Name Morgan Stanley Direct Lending
Dividend Rate 1.8
Dividend Yield 13.81
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,793,995,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,793,995,200
Earnings Growth -0.774
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.78
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,908,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,908,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,908,800
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 8.072
Enterprise Value 3,020,325,632
Eps Current Year 1.80088
Eps Forward 1.80125
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.69
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 212 507 8474
Fifty Day Average 14.5876
Fifty Day Average Change -1.5576
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.10677562
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -22.990543
Fifty Two Week High 17.91
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.88
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.27247348
Fifty Two Week Low 12.94
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.09000015
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.0069551896
Fifty Two Week Range 12.94 - 17.91
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,706,106,600,000
Forward Eps 1.80125
Forward P E 7.2338653
Free Cashflow 81,169,872
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Fullday Change -0.18999958
Fullday Change Percent -1.4296432
Fullday Price 13.03
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 374,159,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00605
Held Percent Institutions 0.35184
Implied Shares Outstanding 84,105,122
Industry Asset Management
Industry Disp Asset Management
Industry Key asset-management
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Last Dividend Value 0.45
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a business development company. It is a Private Debt fund. The fund chiefly invests in riskier bonds, issued by middle-market companies or by private equity firms looking to finance their acquisitions.
Long Name Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,095,889,664
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_632575594
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 59,746,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,211,113,756
Number Of Analyst Opinions 7
Open 13.41
Operating Cashflow 282,913,984
Operating Margins 0.79954004
Payout Ratio 2.7536
Phone 212 761 7160
Post Market Change 0.07000065
Post Market Change Percent 0.5372268
Post Market Price 13.1
Post Market Time 1,792,194,320
Previous Close 13.29
Price Eps Current Year 7.2353516
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.66820514
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 2.928941
Profit Margins 0.15968001
Quick Ratio 1.414
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.26
Regular Market Change Percent -1.95636
Regular Market Day High 13.35
Regular Market Day Low 13.03
Regular Market Day Range 13.03 - 13.35
Regular Market Open 13.41
Regular Market Previous Close 13.29
Regular Market Price 13.03
Regular Market Time 1,792,180,802
Regular Market Volume 532,728
Return On Assets 0.048860002
Return On Equity 0.03475
Revenue Growth -0.108
Revenue Per Share 4.351
Sand P52 Week Change 0.13723719
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Shares Outstanding 84,105,122
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0469
Shares Short 3,946,221
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 3,909,219
Short Percent Of Float 0.053200003
Short Ratio 9.41
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol MSDL
Target High Price 17.0
Target Low Price 14.0
Target Mean Price 15.60714
Target Median Price 16.0
Total Cash 57,461,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.683
Total Debt 1,981,896,960
Total Revenue 374,159,008
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.9
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.14296463
Trailing Eps 0.69
Trailing P E 18.884058
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 15.1292
Two Hundred Day Average Change -2.0992002
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.13875157
Type Disp Equity
Volume 532,728
Zip 10,036