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Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)

Financial Services | Banks - Regional | Effingham, United States | NasdaqGS
30.53 USD -0.23 (-0.748%) ⇩ (July 14, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 5:09 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Midland States Bancorp is currently fractured by a severe disconnect between its attractive headline yield and its deteriorating operational reality. While the 4.25% dividend yield looks compelling on the surface, the company is paying out more than it earns (a payout ratio exceeding 100%), signaling that the dividend is being funded by capital erosion rather than sustainable earnings. This is compounded by a brutal multi-year price trajectory where the stock has lost over 15% of its value despite a recent recovery in revenue growth; the market has clearly priced in significant structural issues that the current fundamentals have not yet resolved. Short-term, the stock is technically neutral, trading near its 50-day average with no clear momentum catalyst to drive a breakout, and the statistical forecast offers no directional guidance. Long-term, the repeated annual declines and the inability to sustain profitability margins suggest the bank is struggling to compete or manage its asset quality effectively. The 'strong buy' headlines circulating are likely ignoring the stark reality of the balance sheet stress. Until the payout ratio drops below 100% and the stock demonstrates a sustained reversal in its multi-year decline, this remains a speculative hold rather than a core investment.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.046981
AutoETS0.046981
AutoTheta0.047021
MSTL0.047129

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 44%
H-stat 3.58
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.210
Excess Kurtosis -1.27
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-14
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-14
Revenue per Share 12.643
Market Cap 632,880,832
Trailing P/E 25.44
Forward P/E 9.71
Beta 0.64
Profit Margins 12.81%
Website https://www.midlandsb.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:09 a.m. EDT: Options activity is extremely thin with negligible open interest and volume across all expirations. There is no meaningful positioning in either calls or puts to indicate a specific speculative bias; the market appears inactive rather than bearish.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.21% 6.42% 5.84% 5.33%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-15 0.320 1.205273
2026-02-13 0.320 1.393122
2025-11-14 0.320 1.978973
2025-08-15 0.320 1.844380
2025-05-16 0.310 1.733781
2025-02-14 0.310 1.603725
2024-11-18 0.310 1.179156
2024-08-16 0.310 1.431210
2024-05-16 0.310 1.321962
2024-02-15 0.310 1.229183
2023-11-16 0.300 1.287554
2023-08-10 0.300 1.300390
2023-05-11 0.300 1.602564
2023-02-16 0.300 1.151190
2022-11-10 0.290 1.032028
2022-08-18 0.290 1.033500
2022-05-12 0.290 1.144887
2022-02-10 0.290 0.978408
2021-11-19 0.280 1.120000
2021-08-12 0.280 1.101062
2021-05-13 0.280 0.992556
2021-02-11 0.280 1.349398
2020-11-19 0.268 1.509859
2020-08-13 0.268 1.804714
2020-05-14 0.268 1.995532
2020-02-13 0.268 0.991491
2019-11-15 0.243 0.866310
2019-08-15 0.243 0.955940
2019-05-10 0.243 0.914221
2019-02-14 0.243 0.987805
2018-11-16 0.220 0.844530
2018-08-16 0.220 0.635104
2018-05-17 0.220 0.681959
2018-02-15 0.220 0.727513
2017-11-16 0.200 0.644538
2017-08-16 0.200 0.670241
2017-05-10 0.200 0.566251
2017-02-15 0.200 0.574548
2016-11-16 0.180 0.629591
2016-08-10 0.180 0.801425
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.28
dividendYield 4.19
exDividendDate 2026-05-15
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.27
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.041287385
lastDividendValue 0.32
lastDividendDate 2026-05-15
dividendDate 2026-05-22

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.64493537
Address1 1,201 Network Centre Drive
All Time High 37.581
All Time Low 12.48
Ask 39.2
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 10
Average Analyst Rating 3.0 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 154,790
Average Daily Volume3 Month 166,737
Average Volume 166,737
Average Volume10Days 154,790
Beta 0.643
Bid 22.15
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 7
Book Value 21.544
City Effingham
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 30.53
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 31.74
Day Low 30.38
Display Name Midland States Bancorp
Dividend Date 1,779,408,000
Dividend Rate 1.28
Dividend Yield 4.19
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,761,249,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,761,249,600
Earnings Timestamp 1,784,836,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,784,836,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,784,836,800
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 4.04
Enterprise Value 1,108,744,704
Eps Current Year 3.175
Eps Forward 3.144
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.2
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,778,803,200
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 28.7696
Fifty Day Average Change 1.7604008
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.061189614
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 64.49354
Fifty Two Week High 31.74
Fifty Two Week High Change -1.2099991
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.038122214
Fifty Two Week Low 14.24
Fifty Two Week Low Change 16.29
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 1.1439607
Fifty Two Week Range 14.24 - 31.74
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,464,096,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 5.33
Float Shares 19,475,232
Forward Eps 3.144
Forward P E 9.71056
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 839
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.0
Gross Profits 274,468,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.08178
Held Percent Institutions 0.7014
Implied Shares Outstanding 20,729,799
Industry Banks - Regional
Industry Disp Banks - Regional
Industry Key banks-regional
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,778,803,200
Last Dividend Value 0.32
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company offers commercial loans; commercial real estate loans that include various property types, such as owner-occupied offices, warehouses and production facilities, office buildings, hotels, mixed-use residential and commercial facilities, retail centers, multifamily properties, assisted living facilities, and farmland; construction and land development loans, including loans to small and midsized businesses to construct owner-user properties, loans to developers of commercial real estate investment properties and residential developments, and loans to individual clients for construction of single family homes; and residential real estate loans comprising first and second mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit. It also provides commercial equipment leasing; depository products consisting of checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposits, and sweep accounts; and trust and wealth management products and services, such as financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.
Long Name Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 632,880,832
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_764589
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 25,427,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 637,648,617
Number Of Analyst Opinions 4
Open 30.95
Operating Cashflow 117,946,000
Operating Margins 0.34021
Overall Risk 8
Payout Ratio 1.0583
Peg Ratio 1.41
Phone 217 342 7321
Pre Market Change 0.13999939
Pre Market Change Percent 0.45856333
Pre Market Price 30.67
Pre Market Time 1,784,102,681
Previous Close 30.76
Price Eps Current Year 9.615748
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.4170998
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 2.3058455
Profit Margins 0.12809
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 3.0
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.22999954
Regular Market Change Percent -0.7477228
Regular Market Day High 31.74
Regular Market Day Low 30.38
Regular Market Day Range 30.38 - 31.74
Regular Market Open 30.95
Regular Market Previous Close 30.76
Regular Market Price 30.53
Regular Market Time 1,784,059,201
Regular Market Volume 173,851
Return On Assets 0.00508
Return On Equity 0.0622
Revenue Growth 0.143
Revenue Per Share 12.643
Sand P52 Week Change 0.2043345
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 20,729,799
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.038399998
Shares Short 795,932
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 600,677
Short Name Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0416
Short Ratio 4.25
Source Interval 15
State IL
Symbol MSBI
Target High Price 33.0
Target Low Price 28.0
Target Mean Price 30.75
Target Median Price 31.0
Total Cash 117,310,000
Total Cash Per Share 5.659
Total Debt 482,625,984
Total Revenue 274,468,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.27
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.041287385
Trailing Eps 1.2
Trailing P E 25.441666
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 22.53205
Two Hundred Day Average Change 7.9979515
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.3549589
Type Disp Equity
Volume 173,851
Website https://www.midlandsb.com
Zip 62,401