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Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)

Real Estate | REIT - Residential | Miami, United States | NYSE
30.61 USD +0.11 (0.361%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 30.62 +0.01 (0.033%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:41 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★⯪☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:24 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is fractured by a critical divergence between the headline-grabbing yield and the reality of the payout. While the 10% yield looks attractive on paper, the payout ratio of 104.9% indicates the company is distributing more cash than it earns; this is a classic sign of NAV erosion or a temporary bridge to maintain income, making the dividend unsustainable in its current form. This fundamental weakness is reflected in the market's behavior: despite the 'strong buy' analyst consensus, the options chain is screaming caution with heavy put positioning, and the statistical forecast leans slightly negative. The recent price action shows a modest recovery from lows, but the underlying business faces a valuation trap where the high yield is likely a precursor to a cut rather than a permanent feature. Until the payout ratio normalizes below 100%, the long-term outlook remains neutral due to this structural risk to income stability.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.035483
MSTL0.036981
AutoETS0.038564
AutoARIMA0.039252

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 52%
H-stat 1.03
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.073
Excess Kurtosis 0.47
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-05
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-05
Debt to Equity Ratio 42.58
Revenue per Share 4.581
Market Cap 5,082,726,912
Trailing P/E 10.63
Forward P/E 9.40
Profit Margins 62.60%
Website https://millroseproperties.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:24 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts relative to calls across all expirations. While there is some call volume at the $35 strike, the dominant strategy is buying cheap insurance at lower strikes ($25-$30), suggesting a fear of a significant drop rather than a bullish breakout.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.71% 10.28% — —
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-06 0.77 2.714135
2026-04-02 0.76 2.750633
2026-01-05 0.75 2.550153
2025-10-03 0.73 2.268490
2025-07-03 0.69 2.461648
2025-04-04 0.38 1.587302
Additional Data
dividendRate 3.08
dividendYield 10.1
exDividendDate 2026-07-06
trailingAnnualDividendRate 3.01
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.09868853
lastDividendValue 0.77
lastDividendDate 2026-07-06
dividendDate 2026-07-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.103660345
Address1 600 Brickell Avenue
Address2 Suite 1400
All Time High 36.0
All Time Low 19.0
Ask 30.52
Ask Size 400
Audit Risk 5
Average Daily Volume10 Day 858,000
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,406,677
Average Volume 1,406,677
Average Volume10Days 858,000
Bid 30.3
Bid Size 400
Board Risk 6
Book Value 35.242
City Miami
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 30.61
Current Ratio 54.111
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 30.87
Day Low 30.38
Debt To Equity 42.58
Display Name Millrose Properties
Dividend Date 1,784,073,600
Dividend Rate 3.08
Dividend Yield 10.1
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,852,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,852,000
Earnings Growth 0.116
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.116
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,846,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,794,400,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,794,400,200
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 9.914
Enterprise Value 7,540,288,000
Eps Current Year 3.10667
Eps Forward 3.25667
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 2.88
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,783,296,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 29.2954
Fifty Day Average Change 1.3146
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.044873938
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -10.3660345
Fifty Two Week High 35.45
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.84
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.13653032
Fifty Two Week Low 26.3
Fifty Two Week Low Change 4.3100014
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.16387838
Fifty Two Week Range 26.3 - 35.45
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,738,765,800,000
Float Shares 153,104,491
Forward Eps 3.25667
Forward P E 9.399172
Free Cashflow -1,379,807,232
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Fullday Change 0.110001
Fullday Change Percent 0.360658
Fullday Price 30.62
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,785,542,400
Gross Margins 0.85307
Gross Profits 648,793,984
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.01128
Held Percent Institutions 0.93944
Implied Shares Outstanding 166,047,927
Industry REIT - Residential
Industry Disp REIT - Residential
Industry Key reit-residential
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,783,296,000
Last Dividend Value 0.77
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier permanent capital solution for residential homebuilders and developers. The company specializes in the acquisition, financing and development of residential land through long-term, capital-efficient structures. The company also provides homebuilders with a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites – the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry. Millrose utilizes a proprietary technology platform that provides real-time feedback and data analytics to drive acquisition decisions. Every transaction in the Millrose portfolio undergoes rigorous independent due diligence to ensure attractive yields and long-term viability. By enabling an asset-light model, Millrose provides its diverse roster of homebuilder partners with the strategic flexibility to maintain production volumes and optimize balance sheet efficiency across all market environments. Millrose Properties, Inc.is based in Miami, United States.
Long Name Millrose Properties, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 5,082,726,912
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_1900389437
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 476,063,008
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 5,064,461,773
Number Of Analyst Opinions 5
Open 30.63
Operating Cashflow 3,746,118,912
Operating Margins 0.85156995
Overall Risk 8
Payout Ratio 1.0488
Phone 212 782 3841
Post Market Change 0.010000229
Post Market Change Percent 0.03266981
Post Market Price 30.62
Post Market Time 1,787,960,464
Previous Close 30.5
Price Eps Current Year 9.852994
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.8685659
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 6.6830325
Profit Margins 0.62595004
Quick Ratio 0.191
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.110001
Regular Market Change Percent 0.360658
Regular Market Day High 30.87
Regular Market Day Low 30.38
Regular Market Day Range 30.38 - 30.87
Regular Market Open 30.63
Regular Market Previous Close 30.5
Regular Market Price 30.61
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,202
Regular Market Volume 708,905
Return On Assets 0.045760002
Return On Equity 0.081199996
Revenue Growth 0.321
Revenue Per Share 4.581
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20204377
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 10
Shares Outstanding 154,228,116
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0403
Shares Short 6,685,006
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 7,916,362
Short Name Millrose Properties, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.050300002
Short Ratio 5.88
Source Interval 15
State FL
Symbol MRP
Target High Price 40.0
Target Low Price 35.0
Target Mean Price 37.6
Target Median Price 38.0
Total Cash 34,171,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.206
Total Debt 2,491,731,968
Total Revenue 760,542,016
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 3.01
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.09868853
Trailing Eps 2.88
Trailing P E 10.628472
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 29.6639
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.94610023
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.031893995
Type Disp Equity
Volume 708,905
Website https://millroseproperties.com
Zip 33,131