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Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)

Real Estate | REIT - Residential | Miami, United States | NYSE
28.17 USD -0.20 (-0.705%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 28.25 +0.08 (0.284%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 8 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:36 a.m. EDT

Millrose Properties presents a classic high-yield value trap scenario where the headline 10.88% yield masks severe structural fragility. The payout ratio of 105% indicates the company is distributing more cash than it earns, eroding the capital base required to maintain its residential portfolio. While the recent price action shows a modest bounce off the lows, the heavy concentration of put options at the $25 level signals that the market views this price as a hard floor, not a launchpad. The statistical forecast offers only a marginal upward lean, which fails to overcome the fundamental warning signs of negative free cash flow and a balance sheet stretched by debt. Investors should view the current price as a defensive play for income preservation rather than a growth opportunity, given the risk that the dividend itself may become unsustainable if earnings do not accelerate significantly.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL_40 ✓0.058411
AutoTheta0.064768
AutoETS0.065939
AutoARIMA0.066064
MSTL0.076466

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_40

Forecast Reliability
Score 50%
H-stat 0.77
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.533
Excess Kurtosis -0.69
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-05
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-05
Debt to Equity Ratio 41.516
Revenue per Share 4.293
Market Cap 4,677,570,048
Trailing P/E 10.10
Forward P/E 8.72
Profit Margins 64.96%
Website https://millroseproperties.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:36 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range-bound recovery rather than a breakout. Call open interest is heavily concentrated at the $35 strike, acting as a significant resistance wall, while put volume and open interest are stacked at the $25 strike, establishing a strong floor. The imbalance in volume versus open interest suggests active selling pressure near current levels, with traders hedging downside risk below $25 while waiting for a catalyst to push prices toward the $35 ceiling.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.71% 10.28% — —
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-06 0.77 2.714135
2026-04-02 0.76 2.750633
2026-01-05 0.75 2.550153
2025-10-03 0.73 2.268490
2025-07-03 0.69 2.461648
2025-04-04 0.38 1.587302
Additional Data
dividendRate 3.08
dividendYield 10.86
exDividendDate 2026-07-06
trailingAnnualDividendRate 2.93
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.10327811
lastDividendValue 0.77
lastDividendDate 2026-07-06
dividendDate 2026-07-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.06214875
Address1 600 Brickell Avenue
Address2 Suite 1400
All Time High 36.0
All Time Low 19.0
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 200
Audit Risk 5
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,687,490
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,664,321
Average Volume 1,664,321
Average Volume10Days 1,687,490
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 300
Board Risk 6
Book Value 35.262
City Miami
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 28.17
Current Ratio 66.463
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 28.6589
Day Low 28.07
Debt To Equity 41.516
Display Name Millrose Properties
Dividend Date 1,784,073,600
Dividend Rate 3.08
Dividend Yield 10.86
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,076,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,076,000
Earnings Growth 0.897
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.897
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,070,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,778,070,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,778,070,600
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 9.904
Enterprise Value 7,058,478,080
Eps Current Year 3.105
Eps Forward 3.23
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 2.79
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,783,296,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 28.5234
Fifty Day Average Change -0.35339928
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.012389802
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -6.214875
Fifty Two Week High 36.0
Fifty Two Week High Change -7.83
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.2175
Fifty Two Week Low 26.3
Fifty Two Week Low Change 1.8700008
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.07110269
Fifty Two Week Range 26.3 - 36.0
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,738,765,800,000
Float Shares 153,141,022
Forward Eps 3.23
Forward P E 8.721362
Free Cashflow -2,056,857,728
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.85436
Gross Profits 608,892,032
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.01126
Held Percent Institutions 0.90899
Implied Shares Outstanding 166,047,927
Industry REIT - Residential
Industry Disp REIT - Residential
Industry Key reit-residential
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,783,296,000
Last Dividend Value 0.77
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier homesite option platform for residential homebuilders. The company specializes in the acquisition and horizontal development of land to provide a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites – the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry. Unlike traditional land bankers, Millrose utilizes a proprietary technology platform that provides real-time feedback and data analytics to drive acquisition decisions. Every transaction in the Millrose portfolio undergoes rigorous independent due diligence to ensure attractive yields and long-term viability. By enabling an asset-light model, Millrose provides its diverse roster of homebuilder partners with the strategic flexibility to maintain production volumes and optimize balance sheet efficiency across all market environments. Millrose Properties, Inc.is based in Miami, United States.
Long Name Millrose Properties, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 4,677,570,048
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_1900389437
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 462,942,016
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 4,710,779,688
Number Of Analyst Opinions 5
Open 28.47
Operating Cashflow 3,756,389,120
Operating Margins 0.85202
Overall Risk 8
Payout Ratio 1.0502
Phone 212 782 3841
Post Market Change 0.07999992
Post Market Change Percent 0.2839898
Post Market Price 28.25
Post Market Time 1,783,987,200
Previous Close 28.37
Price Eps Current Year 9.072464
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.79887694
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 6.5632424
Profit Margins 0.64957
Quick Ratio 0.343
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.200001
Regular Market Change Percent -0.704973
Regular Market Day High 28.6589
Regular Market Day Low 28.07
Regular Market Day Range 28.07 - 28.6589
Regular Market Open 28.47
Regular Market Previous Close 28.37
Regular Market Price 28.17
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 702,805
Return On Assets 0.045339998
Return On Equity 0.078940004
Revenue Growth 1.357
Revenue Per Share 4.293
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 10
Shares Outstanding 154,228,116
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.047
Shares Short 7,796,742
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 5,240,318
Short Name Millrose Properties, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0587
Short Ratio 3.85
Source Interval 15
State FL
Symbol MRP
Target High Price 40.0
Target Low Price 35.0
Target Mean Price 38.6
Target Median Price 40.0
Total Cash 49,276,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.297
Total Debt 2,430,183,936
Total Revenue 712,691,968
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 2.93
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.10327811
Trailing Eps 2.79
Trailing P E 10.096774
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 30.22615
Two Hundred Day Average Change -2.0561504
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.068025544
Type Disp Equity
Volume 702,805
Website https://millroseproperties.com
Zip 33,131