Merlin, Inc. (MRLN)Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Boston, United States | NasdaqGM
4.17 USD
-0.12
(-2.797%) ⇩
(July 14, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:08 a.m. EDT
Merlin, Inc. presents a catastrophic fundamental profile masked by a speculative narrative of autonomous aviation breakthroughs. The company is burning cash aggressively, evidenced by negative operating cash flow of -$70 million against mere $7.7 million in revenue, while posting a gross margin of just 0.36%. The balance sheet is fragile with negative book value and a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 5x, suggesting equity is being eroded by liabilities. Despite a massive analyst target price of $13, the forward P/E is negative due to losses, rendering traditional valuation metrics useless. The price action confirms the distress, trading near its 52-week low of $4.15 after a severe decline from $17. The lack of dividends and the overwhelming options activity focused on buying puts rather than calls suggests the market views this as a value trap or a potential delisting candidate, not a turnaround story. The recent news of design milestones is insufficient to overcome the structural financial implosion. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_65 ✓ | 0.196590 |
| MSTL | 0.211205 |
| AutoTheta | 0.213309 |
| AutoETS | 0.213481 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.243734 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_65
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 39% |
| H-stat | 0.23 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.205 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.22 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 5.869 |
| Revenue per Share | 1.377 |
| Market Cap | 402,505,280 |
| Forward P/E | -5.79 |
| Website | https://www.merlinlabs.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:08 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection rather than upside participation. Put open interest significantly exceeds call open interest across nearly all expirations, with heavy concentration in strikes below the current price (e.g., 2.5 and 5.0). While there is notable call volume at distant strikes (12.5, 15.0), these represent speculative lottery tickets with minimal open interest compared to the defensive put wall. The implied volatility structure shows elevated premiums for downside moves relative to upside moves, indicating a market consensus focused on survival or further decline rather than a catalyst-driven rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.58470476 |
| Address1 | 129 South Street |
| All Time High | 17.0 |
| All Time Low | 4.12 |
| Ask | 5.33 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.0 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,926,510 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,602,265 |
| Average Volume | 2,602,265 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,926,510 |
| Bid | 3.11 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Book Value | -1.645 |
| City | Boston |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 4.17 |
| Current Ratio | 8.718 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 4.4394 |
| Day Low | 4.1201 |
| Debt To Equity | 5.869 |
| Display Name | Merlin |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,788,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,788,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,761,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,786,624,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,786,624,200 |
| Ebitda | -69,509,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -6.649 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 60.137 |
| Enterprise Value | 462,153,312 |
| Eps Current Year | -1.22 |
| Eps Forward | -0.72 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -5.85 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NGM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 6.8724 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -2.7023997 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.39322504 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -58.470474 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 17.0 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -12.83 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.7547059 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 4.1201 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.049900055 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.0121113695 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 4.1201 - 17.0 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,733,149,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 28,637,721 |
| Forward Eps | -0.72 |
| Forward P E | -5.7916665 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGM |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.00364 |
| Gross Profits | 28,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.61842996 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.32459998 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 96,524,052 |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense |
| Industry Disp | Aerospace & Defense |
| Industry Key | aerospace-defense |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Merlin, Inc., an aerospace and defense technology company, develops AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft in the United States and New Zealand. The company provides an aircraft-agnostic, AI-powered software platform that enables autonomous flight for both legacy and next-generation airborne systems. Its main product, the Merlin Pilot, is an integrated hardware and software solution that manages navigation, communication with air traffic control, obstacle avoidance, and real-time decision-making using sensor technologies and natural language processing. The company supports both military and civil aviation programs, offering solutions for missions such as cargo transport and national security operations. It collaborates with partners and regulatory bodies to conduct flight trials and support the certification of autonomous flight systems. The company serves defense organizations, commercial aviation clients, government agencies, regulators, and air cargo operators. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts. |
| Long Name | Merlin, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 402,505,280 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_701474560 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -499,598,016 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 403,470,537 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 4.4 |
| Operating Cashflow | -70,431,000 |
| Operating Margins | -26.95808 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Previous Close | 4.29 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -3.418033 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | -2.5349545 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 52.375443 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 8.345 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.119999886 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -2.7972002 |
| Regular Market Day High | 4.4394 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 4.1201 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 4.1201 - 4.4394 |
| Regular Market Open | 4.4 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 4.29 |
| Regular Market Price | 4.17 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,784,059,201 |
| Regular Market Volume | 883,630 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.154 |
| Revenue Per Share | 1.377 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20365608 |
| Sector | Industrials |
| Sector Disp | Industrials |
| Sector Key | industrials |
| Shares Outstanding | 96,524,052 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0681 |
| Shares Short | 5,659,022 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 3,246,691 |
| Short Name | Merlin, Inc. |
| Short Ratio | 1.47 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | MA |
| Symbol | MRLN |
| Target High Price | 15.0 |
| Target Low Price | 8.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 11.33333 |
| Target Median Price | 11.0 |
| Total Cash | 123,102,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 1.275 |
| Total Debt | 2,419,000 |
| Total Revenue | 7,685,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -5.85 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 9.683 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -5.5129995 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.56934834 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 883,630 |
| Website | https://www.merlinlabs.com |
| Zip | 2,111 |