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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Energy | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Findlay, United States | NYSE
368.83 USD +5.29 (1.455%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 369.35 +0.52 (0.141%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 8 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★★⯪Long-term:★★★★⯪Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:27 a.m. EDT

Marathon Petroleum presents a compelling long-term case anchored by exceptional capital efficiency, boasting a 42% return on equity and 53% revenue growth, yet the market consensus lags significantly with analyst targets priced below the current level. The short-term outlook is aggressively bullish, supported by a 14-day price surge and heavy call option positioning at strikes above the current price, though the forecasting model offers weak confirmation. While the dividend yield is modest, the payout ratio is highly sustainable, reflecting a focus on reinvestment over income distribution. Investors should view the current valuation as a reflection of the company's dominance in refining margins rather than a value trap.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.215529
MSTL0.230835
AutoETS0.231281
AutoARIMA0.231282

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 41%
H-stat 7.93
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.423
Excess Kurtosis -0.92
Attribute Value
Sector Energy
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-18
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-18
Debt to Equity Ratio 133.328
Revenue per Share 520.764
Market Cap 107,674,984,448
Trailing P/E 12.79
Forward P/E 11.45
Beta 0.51
Profit Margins 5.55%
Website https://www.marathonpetroleum.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:27 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for continued upside with significant call volume at strikes above the current price (410) and heavy open interest walls at 330 and 360. Put positioning is defensive, concentrated at lower strikes (200, 160), suggesting downside protection rather than aggressive bearish bets. Implied volatility remains stable around 45-48%.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.28% 1.68% 1.99% 2.25%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-19 1.000 0.277200
2026-05-20 1.000 0.387042
2026-02-18 1.000 0.501077
2025-11-19 1.000 0.511457
2025-08-20 0.910 0.548788
2025-05-21 0.910 0.580728
2025-02-19 0.910 0.580950
2024-11-20 0.910 0.570962
2024-08-21 0.825 0.479735
2024-05-15 0.825 0.477845
2024-02-20 0.825 0.502161
2023-11-15 0.825 0.548793
2023-08-15 0.750 0.525873
2023-05-16 0.750 0.702576
2023-02-15 0.750 0.590040
2022-11-15 0.750 0.625000
2022-08-16 0.580 0.600103
2022-05-17 0.580 0.594567
2022-02-15 0.580 0.739702
2021-11-16 0.580 0.894510
2021-08-17 0.580 1.015762
2021-05-18 0.580 0.961379
2021-02-16 0.580 1.127089
2020-11-17 0.580 1.428220
2020-08-18 0.580 1.557465
2020-05-19 0.580 1.681159
2020-02-18 0.580 1.027094
2019-11-19 0.530 0.856912
2019-08-20 0.530 1.134418
2019-05-15 0.530 1.035358
2019-02-19 0.530 0.815259
2018-11-20 0.460 0.743254
2018-08-15 0.460 0.596009
2018-05-15 0.460 0.595161
2018-02-20 0.460 0.694340
2017-11-15 0.400 0.650407
2017-08-14 0.400 0.764672
2017-05-15 0.360 0.679373
2017-02-14 0.360 0.706436
2016-11-14 0.360 0.825877
2016-08-15 0.360 0.873574
2016-05-16 0.320 0.898120
2016-02-12 0.320 1.008509
2015-11-16 0.320 0.595127
2015-08-17 0.320 0.572758
2015-05-18 0.250 0.479524
2015-02-13 0.250 0.483185
2014-11-17 0.250 0.540482
2014-08-18 0.250 0.555001
2014-05-19 0.210 0.472547
2014-02-14 0.210 0.478851
2013-11-18 0.210 0.542425
2013-08-19 0.210 0.608255
2013-05-14 0.175 0.449583
2013-02-15 0.175 0.423934
2012-11-19 0.175 0.618702
2012-08-14 0.175 0.712396
2012-05-14 0.125 0.697934
2012-02-14 0.125 0.567924
2011-11-14 0.125 0.681013
2011-08-15 0.100 0.511509
Additional Data
dividendRate 4.0
dividendYield 1.1
exDividendDate 2026-08-19
trailingAnnualDividendRate 4.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.011002916
lastDividendValue 1.0
lastDividendDate 2026-08-19
dividendDate 2026-09-10

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 1.0179851
Address1 539 South Main Street
All Time High 367.6
All Time Low 13.175
Ask 370.0
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 7
Average Analyst Rating 2.3 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,427,600
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,363,637
Average Volume 2,363,637
Average Volume10Days 2,427,600
Beta 0.508
Bid 364.7
Bid Size 200
Board Risk 4
Book Value 67.41
City Findlay
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 1
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 368.83
Current Ratio 1.25
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 369.12
Day Low 363.2
Debt To Equity 133.328
Display Name Marathon Petroleum
Dividend Date 1,788,998,400
Dividend Rate 4.0
Dividend Yield 1.1
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,855,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,855,600
Earnings Growth 3.48
Earnings Quarterly Growth 3.225
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,846,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,709,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,709,000
Ebitda 15,397,000,192
Ebitda Margins 0.09989
Enterprise To Ebitda 8.785
Enterprise To Revenue 0.877
Enterprise Value 135,258,038,272
Eps Current Year 50.23425
Eps Forward 32.20183
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 28.83
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,787,097,600
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 305.8702
Fifty Day Average Change 62.959778
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.20583822
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 101.79851
Fifty Two Week High 369.12
Fifty Two Week High Change -0.29000854
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.00078567554
Fifty Two Week Low 161.93
Fifty Two Week Low Change 206.9
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 1.2777126
Fifty Two Week Range 161.93 - 369.12
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,308,922,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.25
Float Shares 279,987,905
Forward Eps 32.20183
Forward P E 11.453696
Free Cashflow 9,249,375,232
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 18,500
Fullday Change 5.28998
Fullday Change Percent 1.45513
Fullday Price 369.35
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,785,542,400
Gross Margins 0.12819
Gross Profits 19,760,001,024
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00331
Held Percent Institutions 0.79603
Implied Shares Outstanding 291,936,635
Industry Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Industry Disp Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Industry Key oil-gas-refining-marketing
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,787,097,600
Last Dividend Value 1.0
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,433,980,800
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Long Name Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Market us_market
Market Cap 107,674,984,448
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_118315802
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 8,545,999,872
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 102,091,034,341
Number Of Analyst Opinions 18
Open 363.74
Operating Cashflow 17,125,999,616
Operating Margins 0.13561
Overall Risk 6
Payout Ratio 0.1356
Peg Ratio 1.76
Phone 419 422 2121
Post Market Change 0.52001953
Post Market Change Percent 0.14099166
Post Market Price 369.35
Post Market Time 1,787,961,600
Previous Close 363.54
Price Eps Current Year 7.3422017
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 5.4714427
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.69852597
Profit Margins 0.05549
Quick Ratio 0.857
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.26316
Region US
Regular Market Change 5.28998
Regular Market Change Percent 1.45513
Regular Market Day High 369.12
Regular Market Day Low 363.2
Regular Market Day Range 363.2 - 369.12
Regular Market Open 363.74
Regular Market Previous Close 363.54
Regular Market Price 368.83
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,202
Regular Market Volume 1,917,722
Return On Assets 0.087390006
Return On Equity 0.42099
Revenue Growth 0.537
Revenue Per Share 520.764
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20504117
Sector Energy
Sector Disp Energy
Sector Key energy
Share Holder Rights Risk 9
Shares Outstanding 291,936,635
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0232
Shares Short 6,521,760
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 6,412,255
Short Name Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Short Percent Of Float 0.027
Short Ratio 2.85
Source Interval 15
State OH
Symbol MPC
Target High Price 413.0
Target Low Price 186.0
Target Mean Price 324.55557
Target Median Price 322.0
Total Cash 7,768,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 27.661
Total Debt 34,292,000,768
Total Revenue 154,145,996,800
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 4.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.011002916
Trailing Eps 28.83
Trailing P E 12.79327
Trailing Peg Ratio 1.8034
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 236.14865
Two Hundred Day Average Change 132.68134
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.56185514
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,917,722
Website https://www.marathonpetroleum.com
Zip 45,840-3229