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The Mosaic Company (MOS)

Basic Materials | Agricultural Inputs | Tampa, United States | NYSE
22.31 USD +0.80 (3.719%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4:02 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 22.36 +0.05 (0.220%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 8 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:38 a.m. EDT

The Mosaic Company presents a classic value trap scenario where the math looks attractive but the reality is fragile. The stock trades at a grotesque trailing P/E of 153x because earnings have collapsed to pennies, even though the forward P/E of 11x suggests a massive turnaround is priced in. This disconnect is dangerous; the market is betting on a perfect execution of a 2026 recovery while ignoring the company's current inability to generate free cash flow (-$290M) and its razor-thin operating margins (less than 1%). The short-term outlook is neutral-to-slightly-bearish. Despite a recent rally, the stock remains below its 50-day moving average, and the statistical forecast models see very little upside over the next month. The options market confirms this hesitation, with heavy resistance placed at the $25 strike, suggesting that any bounce will likely be sold into. Long-term, the business faces significant headwinds. The withdrawal of phosphate production guidance for 2026 is a red flag that the core growth engine is stalled. While the multi-year price trajectory shows a net gain, this is driven by a massive spike in 2021 followed by a decade of volatility and recent declines, not by a consistent compounding of value. The balance sheet is strained with nearly $5.8 billion in debt against only $281 million in cash. However, the dividend offers a compelling 4.24% yield, which is the only bright spot. It is a reliable payout, but it is essentially a bridge loan for investors waiting for the earnings story to resolve. Until Mosaic can demonstrate sustained revenue growth and margin expansion without relying on one-off events, the stock remains a speculative hold rather than a core investment.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.060191
AutoARIMA0.067251
AutoETS0.067253
MSTL0.077512
MSTL_1150.085444
MSTL_900.119567
MSTL_90_1150.144329

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 39%
H-stat 6.19
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.547
Excess Kurtosis -0.65
Attribute Value
Sector Basic Materials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-20
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-20
Debt to Equity Ratio 48.19
Revenue per Share 39.157
Market Cap 7,091,158,528
Trailing P/E 159.36
Forward P/E 11.72
Beta 0.83
Profit Margins 0.36%
Website https://www.mosaicco.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:38 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range-bound recovery rather than a breakout. Call open interest is heavily concentrated at strikes 25.00 and 28.00, creating a significant wall of resistance that suggests traders expect the price to struggle above these levels. Conversely, put open interest is dense just below the current price (around 21.00-22.00), indicating a strong floor where sellers are willing to defend. While there is some volume in higher strikes (30.00-50.00), the lack of corresponding open interest buildup suggests this is speculative noise rather than a coordinated bullish thesis. The overall structure implies a 'mean reversion' trade: buying the dip near 21.00 and selling rallies capped near 25.00.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.00% 3.41% 3.00% 2.40%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-21 0.220 1.002735
2026-03-09 0.220 0.817236
2025-12-04 0.220 0.912863
2025-09-08 0.220 0.675261
2025-06-05 0.220 0.604396
2025-03-06 0.220 0.889968
2024-12-05 0.210 0.819992
2024-09-05 0.210 0.790960
2024-06-06 0.210 0.722643
2024-03-06 0.210 0.667727
2023-12-06 0.200 0.570125
2023-09-06 0.200 0.523697
2023-05-31 0.200 0.625782
2023-03-14 0.250 0.536711
2023-03-01 0.200 0.368596
2022-11-30 0.150 0.292398
2022-08-31 0.150 0.278448
2022-06-01 0.150 0.255580
2022-03-02 0.113 0.210193
2021-12-01 0.075 0.223082
2021-09-01 0.075 0.235775
2021-06-02 0.075 0.201072
2021-03-03 0.050 0.158428
2020-12-02 0.050 0.235405
2020-09-02 0.050 0.264690
2020-06-03 0.050 0.364431
2020-03-04 0.050 0.292569
2019-12-04 0.050 0.272183
2019-09-04 0.050 0.275330
2019-06-05 0.050 0.224719
2019-03-06 0.025 0.085529
2018-12-06 0.025 0.072359
2018-09-05 0.025 0.081940
2018-06-06 0.025 0.085970
2018-02-28 0.025 0.094985
2017-12-06 0.025 0.106792
2017-09-06 0.150 0.759878
2017-05-30 0.150 0.653880
2017-02-28 0.275 0.881693
2016-11-29 0.275 1.016260
2016-09-06 0.275 0.959860
2016-05-31 0.275 1.089972
2016-03-01 0.275 1.014760
2015-12-01 0.275 0.864236
2015-09-01 0.275 0.701352
2015-06-02 0.275 0.607466
2015-03-03 0.250 0.475195
2014-12-02 0.250 0.557414
2014-09-02 0.250 0.527426
2014-06-03 0.250 0.510725
2014-03-04 0.250 0.510517
2013-12-03 0.250 0.538793
2013-07-30 0.250 0.570646
2013-04-30 0.250 0.405910
2013-02-05 0.250 0.409165
2012-10-31 0.250 0.477646
2012-07-31 0.250 0.430219
2012-05-01 0.125 0.235449
2012-01-31 0.050 0.089334
2011-11-01 0.050 0.089493
2011-08-02 0.050 0.072632
2011-04-20 0.050 0.065989
2011-02-01 0.050 0.059609
2010-11-02 0.050 0.069667
2010-08-04 0.050 0.099246
2010-05-04 0.050 0.101833
2010-02-02 0.050 0.088731
2009-11-09 1.300 2.588610
2009-11-03 0.050 0.103864
2009-08-04 0.050 0.093145
2009-05-05 0.050 0.108061
2009-02-03 0.050 0.137589
2008-11-04 0.050 0.119789
2008-08-05 0.050 0.045261
2003-09-11 0.020 0.254777
2003-06-12 0.020 0.276625
2003-03-12 0.020 0.245098
2002-12-12 0.020 0.174825
2002-09-11 0.020 0.142653
2002-06-12 0.020 0.143575
2002-03-13 0.020 0.133779
2001-12-12 0.020 0.141343
2001-06-13 0.020 0.177936
2001-03-13 0.020 0.152091
2000-12-13 0.080 0.589862
2000-09-13 0.080 0.544681
2000-06-13 0.080 0.535565
2000-03-13 0.080 0.633663
1999-12-13 0.080 0.512000
1999-09-13 0.080 0.496124
1999-06-11 0.080 0.398754
1999-03-11 0.080 0.405063
1998-12-11 0.080 0.391437
1998-09-11 0.080 0.377581
1998-06-11 0.080 0.262834
1998-03-12 0.080 0.215488
1997-11-26 0.080 0.256000
1997-09-11 0.080 0.222222
1997-06-12 0.080 0.209150
1997-03-13 0.080 0.234432
1996-12-12 0.080 0.205788
1996-09-12 0.080 0.199377
1996-06-12 0.080 0.203175
1996-03-13 0.080 0.195719
1995-12-13 0.080 0.205128
1995-09-13 0.050 0.153551
1995-06-22 0.050 0.188679
1995-03-13 0.050 0.208333
1994-12-29 0.050 0.230548
1993-03-11 0.135 0.729730
1992-12-11 0.135 0.662577
1992-09-10 0.135 0.608451
1992-06-10 0.135 0.571429
1992-03-11 0.135 0.483221
1991-12-10 0.135 0.524272
1991-09-10 0.135 0.492027
1991-06-10 0.135 0.650602
1991-03-11 0.135 0.672897
1990-12-10 0.135 0.771429
1990-09-10 0.135 0.837209
1990-06-11 0.135 0.776978
1990-03-12 0.135 0.712871
1989-12-11 0.135 0.850394
1989-09-11 0.135 0.705882
1989-06-12 0.135 0.752613
1989-03-13 0.125 0.542005
1988-12-12 0.125 0.598802
1988-09-12 0.125 0.606061
1988-06-13 0.115 0.669091
1988-03-11 0.070 0.482759
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.88
dividendYield 4.09
exDividendDate 2026-05-21
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.88
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.040911205
lastDividendValue 0.22
lastDividendDate 2026-05-21
dividendDate 2026-06-02

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.40332872
Address1 101 East Kennedy Blvd
Address2 Suite 2500
All Time High 163.25
All Time Low 5.82
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 800
Audit Risk 9
Average Analyst Rating 2.3 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 8,920,890
Average Daily Volume3 Month 9,262,006
Average Volume 9,262,006
Average Volume10Days 8,920,890
Beta 0.825
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 1,600
Board Risk 1
Book Value 37.137
City Tampa
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 2
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 22.31
Current Ratio 1.246
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 22.52
Day Low 21.73
Debt To Equity 48.19
Dividend Date 1,780,358,400
Dividend Rate 0.88
Dividend Yield 4.09
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,511,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,511,600
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,502,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,846,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,846,600
Ebitda 1,993,100,032
Ebitda Margins 0.16035
Enterprise To Ebitda 6.385
Enterprise To Revenue 1.024
Enterprise Value 12,725,658,624
Eps Current Year 0.85411
Eps Forward 1.90375
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.14
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,779,321,600
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 22.192
Fifty Day Average Change 0.11800003
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.005317233
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -40.33287
Fifty Two Week High 37.53
Fifty Two Week High Change -15.219999
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.40554222
Fifty Two Week Low 19.8
Fifty Two Week Low Change 2.5100002
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.1267677
Fifty Two Week Range 19.8 - 37.53
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 570,205,800,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.04
Float Shares 315,901,423
Forward Eps 1.90375
Forward P E 11.718976
Free Cashflow -289,787,488
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 13,249
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.13307999
Gross Profits 1,654,099,968
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00341
Held Percent Institutions 0.94027
Implied Shares Outstanding 317,846,644
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Industry Disp Agricultural Inputs
Industry Key agricultural-inputs
Ir Website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=70455&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,779,321,600
Last Dividend Value 0.22
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 817,776,000
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Long Name The Mosaic Company
Market us_market
Market Cap 7,091,158,528
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_890498
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 45,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 6,836,881,312
Number Of Analyst Opinions 19
Open 21.71
Operating Cashflow 886,099,968
Operating Margins 0.00791
Overall Risk 2
Payout Ratio 6.2857
Peg Ratio 2.02
Phone 800 918 8270
Post Market Change 0.049100876
Post Market Change Percent 0.22008461
Post Market Price 22.3591
Post Market Time 1,783,987,200
Previous Close 21.51
Price Eps Current Year 26.120756
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.60074854
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.5705103
Profit Margins 0.0036199999
Quick Ratio 0.359
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.25
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.799999
Regular Market Change Percent 3.7192
Regular Market Day High 22.52
Regular Market Day Low 21.73
Regular Market Day Range 21.73 - 22.52
Regular Market Open 21.71
Regular Market Previous Close 21.51
Regular Market Price 22.31
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,926
Regular Market Volume 8,672,422
Return On Assets 0.02
Return On Equity 0.0059399996
Revenue Growth 0.144
Revenue Per Share 39.157
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Basic Materials
Sector Disp Basic Materials
Sector Key basic-materials
Share Holder Rights Risk 5
Shares Outstanding 317,846,644
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0933
Shares Short 29,665,903
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 20,850,285
Short Name Mosaic Company (The)
Short Percent Of Float 0.123900004
Short Ratio 2.87
Source Interval 15
State FL
Symbol MOS
Target High Price 35.0
Target Low Price 19.0
Target Mean Price 27.18947
Target Median Price 27.0
Total Cash 281,800,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.887
Total Debt 5,762,500,096
Total Revenue 12,429,500,416
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.88
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.040911205
Trailing Eps 0.14
Trailing P E 159.35713
Trailing Peg Ratio 2.0198
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 25.9338
Two Hundred Day Average Change -3.6238003
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.13973272
Type Disp Equity
Volume 8,672,422
Website https://www.mosaicco.com
Zip 33,602