The Mosaic Company (MOS)Basic Materials | Agricultural Inputs | Tampa, United States | NYSE
19.18 USD
+0.33
(1.751%)
⇧
(Oct. 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 19.25 +0.07 (0.365%) ⇧ (Oct. 13, 2026, 7:56 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 9:38 a.m. EDT
The Mosaic Company presents a classic value trap scenario where the market has priced in severe structural deterioration despite the company's historical resilience. Fundamentally, the business is currently failing to generate profit, with negative earnings per share and operating margins, while revenue contracted by 6%. The balance sheet is fragile, carrying significant debt against a shrinking revenue base, which explains why the stock has underperformed its peers over the last decade. Although the dividend yield appears attractive at 4.5%, the payout ratio is dangerously low at just 6%, indicating the company is likely paying out from cash reserves or burning capital to maintain the check, making it unsustainable if earnings do not recover quickly. Technically, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with recent price action showing consistent lower lows. The options market confirms this pessimism; traders are buying deep out-of-the-money puts to hedge against further drops, creating a heavy overhang that will likely suppress any near-term bounce. While analysts see potential for a recovery based on fertilizer expansion projects, the current data shows a company in distress with no immediate earnings catalyst to reverse the multi-year decline. Investors should wait for a clear turnaround in profitability and a stabilization in the stock price before considering a long position. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.057952 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.061226 |
| AutoETS | 0.061599 |
| AutoTheta | 0.063580 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 45% |
| H-stat | 1.87 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.381 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.94 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Basic Materials |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2026-09-09 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2026-09-09 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 52.249 |
| Revenue per Share | 38.564 |
| Market Cap | 6,097,238,528 |
| Forward P/E | 12.19 |
| Beta | 0.92 |
| Profit Margins | -5.21% |
| Website | https://www.mosaicco.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 9:38 a.m. EDT: Speculators are aggressively positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive put volume and open interest relative to calls across nearly all expirations. While there is some call activity near the $20 strike, the overwhelming capital flow is into strikes significantly above the current price ($22-$25 range), suggesting a fear of a continued decline rather than an expectation of a rally.
| Last Yield | 1yr Yield | 3yr Avg | 5yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.87% | 3.60% | 3.11% | 2.53% |
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 0.220 | 0.866142 |
| 2026-05-21 | 0.220 | 1.002735 |
| 2026-03-09 | 0.220 | 0.817236 |
| 2025-12-04 | 0.220 | 0.912863 |
| 2025-09-08 | 0.220 | 0.675261 |
| 2025-06-05 | 0.220 | 0.604396 |
| 2025-03-06 | 0.220 | 0.889968 |
| 2024-12-05 | 0.210 | 0.819992 |
| 2024-09-05 | 0.210 | 0.790960 |
| 2024-06-06 | 0.210 | 0.722643 |
| 2024-03-06 | 0.210 | 0.667727 |
| 2023-12-06 | 0.200 | 0.570125 |
| 2023-09-06 | 0.200 | 0.523697 |
| 2023-05-31 | 0.200 | 0.625782 |
| 2023-03-14 | 0.250 | 0.536711 |
| 2023-03-01 | 0.200 | 0.368596 |
| 2022-11-30 | 0.150 | 0.292398 |
| 2022-08-31 | 0.150 | 0.278448 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.150 | 0.255580 |
| 2022-03-02 | 0.113 | 0.210193 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.075 | 0.223082 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.075 | 0.235775 |
| 2021-06-02 | 0.075 | 0.201072 |
| 2021-03-03 | 0.050 | 0.158428 |
| 2020-12-02 | 0.050 | 0.235405 |
| 2020-09-02 | 0.050 | 0.264690 |
| 2020-06-03 | 0.050 | 0.364431 |
| 2020-03-04 | 0.050 | 0.292569 |
| 2019-12-04 | 0.050 | 0.272183 |
| 2019-09-04 | 0.050 | 0.275330 |
| 2019-06-05 | 0.050 | 0.224719 |
| 2019-03-06 | 0.025 | 0.085529 |
| 2018-12-06 | 0.025 | 0.072359 |
| 2018-09-05 | 0.025 | 0.081940 |
| 2018-06-06 | 0.025 | 0.085970 |
| 2018-02-28 | 0.025 | 0.094985 |
| 2017-12-06 | 0.025 | 0.106792 |
| 2017-09-06 | 0.150 | 0.759878 |
| 2017-05-30 | 0.150 | 0.653880 |
| 2017-02-28 | 0.275 | 0.881693 |
| 2016-11-29 | 0.275 | 1.016260 |
| 2016-09-06 | 0.275 | 0.959860 |
| 2016-05-31 | 0.275 | 1.089972 |
| 2016-03-01 | 0.275 | 1.014760 |
| 2015-12-01 | 0.275 | 0.864236 |
| 2015-09-01 | 0.275 | 0.701352 |
| 2015-06-02 | 0.275 | 0.607466 |
| 2015-03-03 | 0.250 | 0.475195 |
| 2014-12-02 | 0.250 | 0.557414 |
| 2014-09-02 | 0.250 | 0.527426 |
| 2014-06-03 | 0.250 | 0.510725 |
| 2014-03-04 | 0.250 | 0.510517 |
| 2013-12-03 | 0.250 | 0.538793 |
| 2013-07-30 | 0.250 | 0.570646 |
| 2013-04-30 | 0.250 | 0.405910 |
| 2013-02-05 | 0.250 | 0.409165 |
| 2012-10-31 | 0.250 | 0.477646 |
| 2012-07-31 | 0.250 | 0.430219 |
| 2012-05-01 | 0.125 | 0.235449 |
| 2012-01-31 | 0.050 | 0.089334 |
| 2011-11-01 | 0.050 | 0.089493 |
| 2011-08-02 | 0.050 | 0.072632 |
| 2011-04-20 | 0.050 | 0.065989 |
| 2011-02-01 | 0.050 | 0.059609 |
| 2010-11-02 | 0.050 | 0.069667 |
| 2010-08-04 | 0.050 | 0.099246 |
| 2010-05-04 | 0.050 | 0.101833 |
| 2010-02-02 | 0.050 | 0.088731 |
| 2009-11-09 | 1.300 | 2.588610 |
| 2009-11-03 | 0.050 | 0.103864 |
| 2009-08-04 | 0.050 | 0.093145 |
| 2009-05-05 | 0.050 | 0.108061 |
| 2009-02-03 | 0.050 | 0.137589 |
| 2008-11-04 | 0.050 | 0.119789 |
| 2008-08-05 | 0.050 | 0.045261 |
| 2003-09-11 | 0.020 | 0.254777 |
| 2003-06-12 | 0.020 | 0.276625 |
| 2003-03-12 | 0.020 | 0.245098 |
| 2002-12-12 | 0.020 | 0.174825 |
| 2002-09-11 | 0.020 | 0.142653 |
| 2002-06-12 | 0.020 | 0.143575 |
| 2002-03-13 | 0.020 | 0.133779 |
| 2001-12-12 | 0.020 | 0.141343 |
| 2001-06-13 | 0.020 | 0.177936 |
| 2001-03-13 | 0.020 | 0.152091 |
| 2000-12-13 | 0.080 | 0.589862 |
| 2000-09-13 | 0.080 | 0.544681 |
| 2000-06-13 | 0.080 | 0.535565 |
| 2000-03-13 | 0.080 | 0.633663 |
| 1999-12-13 | 0.080 | 0.512000 |
| 1999-09-13 | 0.080 | 0.496124 |
| 1999-06-11 | 0.080 | 0.398754 |
| 1999-03-11 | 0.080 | 0.405063 |
| 1998-12-11 | 0.080 | 0.391437 |
| 1998-09-11 | 0.080 | 0.377581 |
| 1998-06-11 | 0.080 | 0.262834 |
| 1998-03-12 | 0.080 | 0.215488 |
| 1997-11-26 | 0.080 | 0.256000 |
| 1997-09-11 | 0.080 | 0.222222 |
| 1997-06-12 | 0.080 | 0.209150 |
| 1997-03-13 | 0.080 | 0.234432 |
| 1996-12-12 | 0.080 | 0.205788 |
| 1996-09-12 | 0.080 | 0.199377 |
| 1996-06-12 | 0.080 | 0.203175 |
| 1996-03-13 | 0.080 | 0.195719 |
| 1995-12-13 | 0.080 | 0.205128 |
| 1995-09-13 | 0.050 | 0.153551 |
| 1995-06-22 | 0.050 | 0.188679 |
| 1995-03-13 | 0.050 | 0.208333 |
| 1994-12-29 | 0.050 | 0.230548 |
| 1993-03-11 | 0.135 | 0.729730 |
| 1992-12-11 | 0.135 | 0.662577 |
| 1992-09-10 | 0.135 | 0.608451 |
| 1992-06-10 | 0.135 | 0.571429 |
| 1992-03-11 | 0.135 | 0.483221 |
| 1991-12-10 | 0.135 | 0.524272 |
| 1991-09-10 | 0.135 | 0.492027 |
| 1991-06-10 | 0.135 | 0.650602 |
| 1991-03-11 | 0.135 | 0.672897 |
| 1990-12-10 | 0.135 | 0.771429 |
| 1990-09-10 | 0.135 | 0.837209 |
| 1990-06-11 | 0.135 | 0.776978 |
| 1990-03-12 | 0.135 | 0.712871 |
| 1989-12-11 | 0.135 | 0.850394 |
| 1989-09-11 | 0.135 | 0.705882 |
| 1989-06-12 | 0.135 | 0.752613 |
| 1989-03-13 | 0.125 | 0.542005 |
| 1988-12-12 | 0.125 | 0.598802 |
| 1988-09-12 | 0.125 | 0.606061 |
| 1988-06-13 | 0.115 | 0.669091 |
| 1988-03-11 | 0.070 | 0.482759 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.3706177 |
| Address1 | 101 East Kennedy Blvd |
| Address2 | Suite 2500 |
| All Time High | 163.25 |
| All Time Low | 5.82 |
| Ask | 19.3 |
| Ask Size | 3,800 |
| Audit Risk | 9 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.5 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 9,873,960 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 8,246,281 |
| Average Volume | 8,246,281 |
| Average Volume10Days | 9,873,960 |
| Beta | 0.918 |
| Bid | 19.0 |
| Bid Size | 1,700 |
| Board Risk | 1 |
| Book Value | 36.062 |
| City | Tampa |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 2 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 19.18 |
| Current Ratio | 1.337 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 19.31 |
| Day Low | 18.87 |
| Debt To Equity | 52.249 |
| Display Name | Mosaic |
| Dividend Date | 1,790,208,000 |
| Dividend Rate | 0.88 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.67 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,942,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,942,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,736,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,736,000 |
| Ebitda | 1,718,700,032 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.14033 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 7.013 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.984 |
| Enterprise Value | 12,053,338,112 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.38983 |
| Eps Forward | 1.57292 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -2.01 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,788,998,400 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 20 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 23.2402 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -4.0601997 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.1747059 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -37.061768 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 32.25 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -13.07 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.40527132 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 18.41 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.77000046 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.04182512 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 18.41 - 32.25 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 570,205,800,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 1.55 |
| Float Shares | 297,804,641 |
| Forward Eps | 1.57292 |
| Forward P E | 12.193882 |
| Free Cashflow | -746,275,008 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 13,000 |
| Fullday Change | 0.30999947 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 1.6445595 |
| Fullday Price | 19.18 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.11236 |
| Gross Profits | 1,376,199,936 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.0033500001 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.98469 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 317,895,646 |
| Industry | Agricultural Inputs |
| Industry Disp | Agricultural Inputs |
| Industry Key | agricultural-inputs |
| Ir Website | http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=70455&p=irol-irhome |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,788,998,400 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.22 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 817,776,000 |
| Last Split Factor | 2:1 |
| Long Business Summary | The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida. |
| Long Name | The Mosaic Company |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 6,097,238,528 |
| Market State | POSTPOST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_890498 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -638,499,968 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 7,647,390,254 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 18 |
| Open | 18.89 |
| Operating Cashflow | 444,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.00117 |
| Overall Risk | 2 |
| Payout Ratio | 6.2857 |
| Peg Ratio | 2.02 |
| Phone | 800 918 8270 |
| Post Market Change | 0.069999695 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.3649619 |
| Post Market Price | 19.25 |
| Post Market Time | 1,791,935,811 |
| Previous Close | 18.85 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 49.200935 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 0.5318618 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.4978191 |
| Profit Margins | -0.05213 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.354 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.45 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.33 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 1.75066 |
| Regular Market Day High | 19.31 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 18.87 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 18.87 - 19.31 |
| Regular Market Open | 18.89 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 18.85 |
| Regular Market Price | 19.18 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,791,921,602 |
| Regular Market Volume | 7,792,504 |
| Return On Assets | 0.01239 |
| Return On Equity | -0.05073 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.06 |
| Revenue Per Share | 38.564 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.17502642 |
| Sector | Basic Materials |
| Sector Disp | Basic Materials |
| Sector Key | basic-materials |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 317,895,646 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.094399996 |
| Shares Short | 29,994,221 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 28,883,934 |
| Short Name | Mosaic Company (The) |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1252 |
| Short Ratio | 3.64 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | FL |
| Symbol | MOS |
| Target High Price | 35.0 |
| Target Low Price | 17.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 26.49444 |
| Target Median Price | 26.0 |
| Total Cash | 294,000,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.925 |
| Total Debt | 6,079,099,904 |
| Total Revenue | 12,247,900,160 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.88 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.046684347 |
| Trailing Eps | -2.01 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | 2.0198 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 24.371 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -5.191 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.21299905 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 7,792,504 |
| Website | https://www.mosaicco.com |
| Zip | 33,602 |