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The Mosaic Company (MOS)

Basic Materials | Agricultural Inputs | Tampa, United States | NYSE
23.60 USD -0.16 (-0.673%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4:02 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 23.71 +0.11 (0.466%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 8 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:05 a.m. EDT

The Mosaic Company presents a classic value trap scenario where the math looks attractive but the business reality is deteriorating. While the stock trades at a fraction of book value and offers a robust 3.77% yield, the company is actively cutting its own throat by withdrawing phosphate production guidance for 2026. This is not a temporary stumble; it is a structural admission that demand is insufficient to sustain previous operations. The negative revenue growth and negative operating margins confirm that the fertilizer expansion strategy is failing to generate the cash flow needed to support the dividend or fund growth. Although the options market has placed a heavy bid under the $20 strike, creating a potential floor, the lack of upward momentum and the explicit reduction in future production capacity suggest the stock will likely drift lower or stagnate until the balance sheet can be repaired. The dividend is safe for now, but paying for a shrinking business is rarely a winning long-term strategy.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.074699
AutoTheta0.080206
AutoARIMA0.080920
AutoETS0.080920

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 48%
H-stat 0.53
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.462
Excess Kurtosis -0.06
Attribute Value
Sector Basic Materials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-09
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-20
Debt to Equity Ratio 52.249
Revenue per Share 38.564
Market Cap 7,502,337,536
Forward P/E 14.70
Beta 0.82
Profit Margins -5.21%
Website https://www.mosaicco.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:05 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range-bound recovery rather than a breakout. Call Open Interest builds significantly at the $25 and $30 strikes, suggesting a floor and a distant target, while massive Put Open Interest clusters at $20-$21 indicate a hard support level. The skew shows elevated implied volatility for deep out-of-the-money puts, reflecting fear of a drop to $20, but the volume flow in calls near the money suggests buyers are stepping in to defend the current $24 level.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.00% 3.41% 3.00% 2.40%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-21 0.220 1.002735
2026-03-09 0.220 0.817236
2025-12-04 0.220 0.912863
2025-09-08 0.220 0.675261
2025-06-05 0.220 0.604396
2025-03-06 0.220 0.889968
2024-12-05 0.210 0.819992
2024-09-05 0.210 0.790960
2024-06-06 0.210 0.722643
2024-03-06 0.210 0.667727
2023-12-06 0.200 0.570125
2023-09-06 0.200 0.523697
2023-05-31 0.200 0.625782
2023-03-14 0.250 0.536711
2023-03-01 0.200 0.368596
2022-11-30 0.150 0.292398
2022-08-31 0.150 0.278448
2022-06-01 0.150 0.255580
2022-03-02 0.113 0.210193
2021-12-01 0.075 0.223082
2021-09-01 0.075 0.235775
2021-06-02 0.075 0.201072
2021-03-03 0.050 0.158428
2020-12-02 0.050 0.235405
2020-09-02 0.050 0.264690
2020-06-03 0.050 0.364431
2020-03-04 0.050 0.292569
2019-12-04 0.050 0.272183
2019-09-04 0.050 0.275330
2019-06-05 0.050 0.224719
2019-03-06 0.025 0.085529
2018-12-06 0.025 0.072359
2018-09-05 0.025 0.081940
2018-06-06 0.025 0.085970
2018-02-28 0.025 0.094985
2017-12-06 0.025 0.106792
2017-09-06 0.150 0.759878
2017-05-30 0.150 0.653880
2017-02-28 0.275 0.881693
2016-11-29 0.275 1.016260
2016-09-06 0.275 0.959860
2016-05-31 0.275 1.089972
2016-03-01 0.275 1.014760
2015-12-01 0.275 0.864236
2015-09-01 0.275 0.701352
2015-06-02 0.275 0.607466
2015-03-03 0.250 0.475195
2014-12-02 0.250 0.557414
2014-09-02 0.250 0.527426
2014-06-03 0.250 0.510725
2014-03-04 0.250 0.510517
2013-12-03 0.250 0.538793
2013-07-30 0.250 0.570646
2013-04-30 0.250 0.405910
2013-02-05 0.250 0.409165
2012-10-31 0.250 0.477646
2012-07-31 0.250 0.430219
2012-05-01 0.125 0.235449
2012-01-31 0.050 0.089334
2011-11-01 0.050 0.089493
2011-08-02 0.050 0.072632
2011-04-20 0.050 0.065989
2011-02-01 0.050 0.059609
2010-11-02 0.050 0.069667
2010-08-04 0.050 0.099246
2010-05-04 0.050 0.101833
2010-02-02 0.050 0.088731
2009-11-09 1.300 2.588610
2009-11-03 0.050 0.103864
2009-08-04 0.050 0.093145
2009-05-05 0.050 0.108061
2009-02-03 0.050 0.137589
2008-11-04 0.050 0.119789
2008-08-05 0.050 0.045261
2003-09-11 0.020 0.254777
2003-06-12 0.020 0.276625
2003-03-12 0.020 0.245098
2002-12-12 0.020 0.174825
2002-09-11 0.020 0.142653
2002-06-12 0.020 0.143575
2002-03-13 0.020 0.133779
2001-12-12 0.020 0.141343
2001-06-13 0.020 0.177936
2001-03-13 0.020 0.152091
2000-12-13 0.080 0.589862
2000-09-13 0.080 0.544681
2000-06-13 0.080 0.535565
2000-03-13 0.080 0.633663
1999-12-13 0.080 0.512000
1999-09-13 0.080 0.496124
1999-06-11 0.080 0.398754
1999-03-11 0.080 0.405063
1998-12-11 0.080 0.391437
1998-09-11 0.080 0.377581
1998-06-11 0.080 0.262834
1998-03-12 0.080 0.215488
1997-11-26 0.080 0.256000
1997-09-11 0.080 0.222222
1997-06-12 0.080 0.209150
1997-03-13 0.080 0.234432
1996-12-12 0.080 0.205788
1996-09-12 0.080 0.199377
1996-06-12 0.080 0.203175
1996-03-13 0.080 0.195719
1995-12-13 0.080 0.205128
1995-09-13 0.050 0.153551
1995-06-22 0.050 0.188679
1995-03-13 0.050 0.208333
1994-12-29 0.050 0.230548
1993-03-11 0.135 0.729730
1992-12-11 0.135 0.662577
1992-09-10 0.135 0.608451
1992-06-10 0.135 0.571429
1992-03-11 0.135 0.483221
1991-12-10 0.135 0.524272
1991-09-10 0.135 0.492027
1991-06-10 0.135 0.650602
1991-03-11 0.135 0.672897
1990-12-10 0.135 0.771429
1990-09-10 0.135 0.837209
1990-06-11 0.135 0.776978
1990-03-12 0.135 0.712871
1989-12-11 0.135 0.850394
1989-09-11 0.135 0.705882
1989-06-12 0.135 0.752613
1989-03-13 0.125 0.542005
1988-12-12 0.125 0.598802
1988-09-12 0.125 0.606061
1988-06-13 0.115 0.669091
1988-03-11 0.070 0.482759
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.88
dividendYield 3.7
exDividendDate 2026-09-10
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.88
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.037037037
lastDividendValue 0.22
lastDividendDate 2026-05-21
dividendDate 2026-06-02

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.28541356
Address1 101 East Kennedy Blvd
Address2 Suite 2500
All Time High 163.25
All Time Low 5.82
Ask 23.6
Ask Size 500
Audit Risk 9
Average Analyst Rating 2.5 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 8,424,640
Average Daily Volume3 Month 8,666,182
Average Volume 8,666,182
Average Volume10Days 8,424,640
Beta 0.821
Bid 23.6
Bid Size 500
Board Risk 1
Book Value 36.062
City Tampa
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 2
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 23.6
Current Ratio 1.337
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 24.29
Day Low 23.325
Debt To Equity 52.249
Dividend Date 1,780,358,400
Dividend Rate 0.88
Dividend Yield 3.7
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,942,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,942,000
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,873,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,736,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,736,000
Ebitda 1,718,700,032
Ebitda Margins 0.14033
Enterprise To Ebitda 7.831
Enterprise To Revenue 1.099
Enterprise Value 13,458,437,120
Eps Current Year 0.41212
Eps Forward 1.60579
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -2.01
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,788,998,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 22.3616
Fifty Day Average Change 1.2383995
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.055380628
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -28.541357
Fifty Two Week High 36.99
Fifty Two Week High Change -13.390001
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.36198974
Fifty Two Week Low 19.8
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.8000011
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.19191925
Fifty Two Week Range 19.8 - 36.99
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 570,205,800,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.04
Float Shares 297,804,641
Forward Eps 1.60579
Forward P E 14.6968155
Free Cashflow -746,275,008
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 13,000
Fullday Change -0.16
Fullday Change Percent -0.6734
Fullday Price 23.71
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,785,542,400
Gross Margins 0.11236
Gross Profits 1,376,199,936
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0033500001
Held Percent Institutions 0.98601997
Implied Shares Outstanding 317,895,646
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Industry Disp Agricultural Inputs
Industry Key agricultural-inputs
Ir Website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=70455&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,779,321,600
Last Dividend Value 0.22
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 817,776,000
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Long Name The Mosaic Company
Market us_market
Market Cap 7,502,337,536
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_890498
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common -638,499,968
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 7,553,200,548
Number Of Analyst Opinions 19
Open 23.95
Operating Cashflow 444,000,000
Operating Margins -0.00117
Overall Risk 2
Payout Ratio 6.2857
Peg Ratio 2.02
Phone 800 918 8270
Post Market Change 0.1099987
Post Market Change Percent 0.4660962
Post Market Price 23.71
Post Market Time 1,787,961,600
Previous Close 23.76
Price Eps Current Year 57.264874
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.6544285
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.6125407
Profit Margins -0.05213
Quick Ratio 0.354
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.45
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.16
Regular Market Change Percent -0.6734
Regular Market Day High 24.29
Regular Market Day Low 23.325
Regular Market Day Range 23.325 - 24.29
Regular Market Open 23.95
Regular Market Previous Close 23.76
Regular Market Price 23.6
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,323
Regular Market Volume 5,384,647
Return On Assets 0.01239
Return On Equity -0.05073
Revenue Growth -0.06
Revenue Per Share 38.564
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20504117
Sector Basic Materials
Sector Disp Basic Materials
Sector Key basic-materials
Share Holder Rights Risk 5
Shares Outstanding 317,895,646
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0912
Shares Short 29,005,945
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 29,645,570
Short Name Mosaic Company (The)
Short Percent Of Float 0.12109999
Short Ratio 3.93
Source Interval 15
State FL
Symbol MOS
Target High Price 35.0
Target Low Price 17.0
Target Mean Price 26.46842
Target Median Price 26.0
Total Cash 294,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.925
Total Debt 6,079,099,904
Total Revenue 12,247,900,160
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.88
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.037037037
Trailing Eps -2.01
Trailing Peg Ratio 2.0198
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 24.5365
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.93650055
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.038167648
Type Disp Equity
Volume 5,384,647
Website https://www.mosaicco.com
Zip 33,602