Mattel, Inc. (MAT)Consumer Cyclical | Leisure | El Segundo, United States | NasdaqGS
15.14 USD
+0.22
(1.475%)
⇧
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 15.14 |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 3:43 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is severely compromised by a multi-year structural decline. Despite trading at a low forward P/E of roughly 9x, the company has suffered three consecutive years of negative annual returns, dragging the total cumulative return over the last nine years down by nearly 45%. This persistent price erosion suggests the market views the current valuation as insufficient to compensate for the deteriorating business trajectory, rather than a margin of safety. The balance sheet carries significant debt relative to equity, and the absence of any dividend history eliminates income support. While the stock is technically oversold and trading below its 200-day average, the momentum is weak, and the statistical forecast models predict a slight negative drift over the next month. Without a clear turnaround in revenue growth or margin expansion, this appears to be a value trap where the fundamentals are failing to support the price, making it unsuitable for both short-term momentum plays and long-term accumulation. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.051608 |
| AutoETS | 0.053398 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.053519 |
| AutoTheta | 0.057836 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 44% |
| H-stat | 4.20 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.195 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.71 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2017-08-20 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2017-08-20 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 137.445 |
| Revenue per Share | 18.178 |
| Market Cap | 4,325,497,856 |
| Trailing P/E | 11.13 |
| Forward P/E | 9.52 |
| Beta | 0.73 |
| Profit Margins | 7.79% |
| Website | https://corporate.mattel.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 3:43 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume and open interest concentrated at strikes below the current price (13.0 and 14.0), while call activity remains thin and scattered. The significant lack of call volume beyond the immediate money suggests a lack of bullish conviction for a recovery, whereas the put flow indicates a fear of further downside or a hedge against earnings volatility.
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-08-21 | 0.150000 | 0.913520 |
| 2017-05-17 | 0.380000 | 1.714801 |
| 2017-02-14 | 0.380000 | 1.479175 |
| 2016-11-18 | 0.380000 | 1.245085 |
| 2016-08-19 | 0.380000 | 1.156069 |
| 2016-05-17 | 0.380000 | 1.242236 |
| 2016-02-12 | 0.380000 | 1.235371 |
| 2015-11-23 | 0.380000 | 1.613588 |
| 2015-08-24 | 0.380000 | 1.772388 |
| 2015-05-20 | 0.380000 | 1.475155 |
| 2015-02-17 | 0.380000 | 1.406366 |
| 2014-11-24 | 0.380000 | 1.217949 |
| 2014-08-25 | 0.380000 | 1.089762 |
| 2014-05-21 | 0.380000 | 0.989841 |
| 2014-02-18 | 0.380000 | 1.071328 |
| 2013-11-25 | 0.360000 | 0.790514 |
| 2013-08-26 | 0.360000 | 0.869145 |
| 2013-05-21 | 0.360000 | 0.771704 |
| 2013-02-20 | 0.360000 | 0.883002 |
| 2012-11-26 | 0.310000 | 0.844227 |
| 2012-08-27 | 0.310000 | 0.880932 |
| 2012-05-21 | 0.310000 | 0.992000 |
| 2012-02-21 | 0.310000 | 0.968145 |
| 2011-11-28 | 0.230000 | 0.825556 |
| 2011-08-29 | 0.230000 | 0.872203 |
| 2011-05-23 | 0.230000 | 0.873860 |
| 2011-02-22 | 0.230000 | 0.917797 |
| 2010-12-01 | 0.830000 | 3.239656 |
| 2009-11-25 | 0.750000 | 3.766951 |
| 2008-12-03 | 0.750000 | 5.681818 |
| 2007-11-28 | 0.750000 | 3.740649 |
| 2006-11-29 | 0.650000 | 2.962625 |
| 2005-11-30 | 0.500000 | 3.003003 |
| 2004-12-01 | 0.450000 | 2.368421 |
| 2003-12-04 | 0.400000 | 2.037697 |
| 2002-11-22 | 0.050000 | 0.248139 |
| 2001-11-21 | 0.050000 | 0.265816 |
| 2001-09-06 | 0.090000 | 0.486750 |
| 2000-09-06 | 0.090000 | 0.894410 |
| 2000-06-16 | 0.090000 | 0.660550 |
| 2000-03-08 | 0.090000 | 0.986301 |
| 1999-12-08 | 0.090000 | 0.626087 |
| 1999-09-08 | 0.090000 | 0.397790 |
| 1999-06-09 | 0.090000 | 0.370180 |
| 1999-03-10 | 0.080000 | 0.333333 |
| 1998-12-09 | 0.080000 | 0.263918 |
| 1998-09-09 | 0.080000 | 0.221071 |
| 1998-06-10 | 0.080000 | 0.205788 |
| 1998-03-11 | 0.103000 | 0.235765 |
| 1997-12-05 | 0.070000 | 0.175549 |
| 1997-09-10 | 0.070000 | 0.206642 |
| 1997-06-12 | 0.070000 | 0.227642 |
| 1997-03-12 | 0.060000 | 0.235294 |
| 1996-12-11 | 0.060000 | 0.193548 |
| 1996-09-11 | 0.060000 | 0.222222 |
| 1996-06-12 | 0.060000 | 0.212389 |
| 1996-03-13 | 0.060000 | 0.226415 |
| 1995-12-13 | 0.048000 | 0.196721 |
| 1995-09-19 | 0.048000 | 0.197531 |
| 1995-06-20 | 0.048000 | 0.233010 |
| 1995-03-17 | 0.048000 | 0.260870 |
| 1994-12-15 | 0.038400 | 0.227488 |
| 1994-09-19 | 0.038400 | 0.216216 |
| 1994-06-16 | 0.038400 | 0.228571 |
| 1994-03-10 | 0.038400 | 0.237624 |
| 1993-12-06 | 0.038400 | 0.252101 |
| 1993-09-09 | 0.030720 | 0.223256 |
| 1993-06-07 | 0.030720 | 0.251309 |
| 1993-03-08 | 0.025600 | 0.224719 |
| 1992-12-07 | 0.025600 | 0.192308 |
| 1992-09-09 | 0.025600 | 0.206186 |
| 1992-06-08 | 0.025600 | 0.208333 |
| 1992-03-09 | 0.017067 | 0.158106 |
| 1991-12-09 | 0.017067 | 0.180184 |
| 1991-09-09 | 0.013653 | 0.197040 |
| 1991-06-10 | 0.013653 | 0.192303 |
| 1991-03-11 | 0.008192 | 0.130435 |
| 1990-12-10 | 0.008192 | 0.147239 |
| 1990-09-10 | 0.008192 | 0.155844 |
| 1990-06-11 | 0.008192 | 0.121827 |
| 1983-06-28 | 0.020480 | 0.681818 |
| 1983-03-28 | 0.020480 | 0.638298 |
| 1982-12-28 | 0.020480 | 0.447761 |
| 1982-09-28 | 0.020480 | 0.500000 |
| 1982-06-29 | 0.020480 | 0.461538 |
| 1982-03-31 | 0.020480 | 0.461538 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.16445917 |
| Address1 | 333 Continental Blvd. |
| All Time High | 48.48 |
| All Time Low | 0.955733 |
| Ask | 15.93 |
| Ask Size | 1 |
| Audit Risk | 6 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.0 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 3,182,660 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 4,350,615 |
| Average Volume | 4,350,615 |
| Average Volume10Days | 3,182,660 |
| Beta | 0.729 |
| Bid | 14.35 |
| Bid Size | 1 |
| Board Risk | 4 |
| Book Value | 6.994 |
| City | El Segundo |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 4 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 15.14 |
| Current Ratio | 1.902 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 15.24 |
| Day Low | 14.905 |
| Debt To Equity | 137.445 |
| Display Name | Mattel |
| Dividend Date | 1,505,433,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,877,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,877,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,131,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,131,200 |
| Ebitda | 653,438,976 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.11903 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 10.021 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.193 |
| Enterprise Value | 6,547,953,152 |
| Eps Current Year | 1.30798 |
| Eps Forward | 1.59038 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.36 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,503,273,600 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 14.3548 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.7852001 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.05469948 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -16.445917 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 22.48 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -7.339999 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.32651243 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 12.73 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 2.4100008 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.18931665 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 12.73 - 22.48 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 203,866,200,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 5.17 |
| Float Shares | 231,397,001 |
| Forward Eps | 1.59038 |
| Forward P E | 9.519738 |
| Free Cashflow | 425,315,872 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 31,000 |
| Fullday Change | 0.22 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 1.47453 |
| Fullday Price | 15.14 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | 0.47605 |
| Gross Profits | 2,613,455,104 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.010319999 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.08991 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 285,700,000 |
| Industry | Leisure |
| Industry Disp | Leisure |
| Industry Key | leisure |
| Ir Website | http://investor.shareholder.com/mattel/ |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,503,273,600 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.15 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 825,897,600 |
| Last Split Factor | 5:4 |
| Long Business Summary | Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California. |
| Long Name | Mattel, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 4,325,497,856 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_31197 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | 427,366,016 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 4,259,787,000 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 13 |
| Open | 15.02 |
| Operating Cashflow | 666,388,992 |
| Operating Margins | 0.01323 |
| Overall Risk | 1 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 1.25 |
| Phone | 310 252 2000 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 15.14 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,959,805 |
| Previous Close | 14.92 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 11.575101 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 2.1647127 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.7878968 |
| Profit Margins | 0.07785 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.042 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.22 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 1.47453 |
| Regular Market Day High | 15.24 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 14.905 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 14.905 - 15.24 |
| Regular Market Open | 15.02 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 14.92 |
| Regular Market Price | 15.14 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,201 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,917,203 |
| Return On Assets | 0.04731 |
| Return On Equity | 0.20497 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.105 |
| Revenue Per Share | 18.178 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20204377 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 285,700,000 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.09060001 |
| Shares Short | 25,885,588 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 27,481,840 |
| Short Name | Mattel, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.14 |
| Short Ratio | 5.83 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | MAT |
| Target High Price | 28.0 |
| Target Low Price | 12.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 18.23077 |
| Target Median Price | 18.0 |
| Total Cash | 523,856,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 1.834 |
| Total Debt | 2,746,310,912 |
| Total Revenue | 5,489,929,216 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.36 |
| Trailing P E | 11.132353 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | 1.222 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 16.65025 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.5102491 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.09070429 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,917,203 |
| Website | https://corporate.mattel.com |
| Zip | 90,245-5012 |