Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK)Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Mountain View, United States | NasdaqGM
1.41 USD
-0.19
(-11.635%) ⇩
(Oct. 16, 2026, 2:06 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 7:50 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Kodiak AI is currently broken by a severe disconnect between its financial reality and its market valuation. While analysts project triple-digit upside based on a $10.50 target, the company is burning cash aggressively with operating losses exceeding $120 million and negative free cash flow of over $100 million. The balance sheet is fragile, with negative book value and a debt-to-equity ratio nearing 140%, meaning the company is effectively insolvent on a liquidation basis. The stock has already corrected significantly, dropping from highs near $11.35 to current levels around $1.67, yet the fundamental deterioration—negative earnings, massive cash burn, and no dividend support—suggests the market is correctly pricing a high risk of permanent capital loss. The options market confirms this pessimism, with traders buying deep out-of-the-money puts as insurance against further declines rather than betting on a rebound. Until the company demonstrates a clear path to profitability or a massive reduction in cash burn, the risk-reward profile remains heavily skewed against investors. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.254754 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.366021 |
| AutoETS | 0.367529 |
| MSTL | 0.367783 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 30% |
| H-stat | 354.98 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.036 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.34 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Technology |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 139.502 |
| Revenue per Share | 0.047 |
| Market Cap | 281,868,544 |
| Forward P/E | -1.81 |
| Beta | 0.60 |
| Website | https://kodiak.ai |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 7:50 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection rather than upside participation. Put open interest dominates across nearly all expirations, with significant concentrations at strikes well below the current price (e.g., $1.00 and $2.00). Call activity is sparse and concentrated at very distant out-of-the-money strikes ($10.00+), suggesting a speculative 'lottery ticket' mentality rather than a genuine belief in near-term recovery. The implied volatility skew is heavily skewed toward the downside, indicating fear of further price erosion.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.79457366 |
| Address1 | 1,049 Terra Bella Avenue |
| All Time High | 11.35 |
| All Time Low | 1.51 |
| Ask | 5.65 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.3 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 6,635,820 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,912,596 |
| Average Volume | 2,912,596 |
| Average Volume10Days | 6,635,820 |
| Beta | 0.603 |
| Bid | 3.23 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Book Value | -0.973 |
| City | Mountain View |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 1.405 |
| Current Ratio | 5.536 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 1.605 |
| Day Low | 1.4 |
| Debt To Equity | 139.502 |
| Display Name | Kodiak AI |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,793,916,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,793,916,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,793,908,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,908,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,908,800 |
| Ebitda | -145,148,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -3.024 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 61.37 |
| Enterprise Value | 438,914,880 |
| Eps Current Year | -0.56368 |
| Eps Forward | -0.77685 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -2.91 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NGM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 3.2175 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -1.8125 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.5633256 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -79.45737 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 11.35 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -9.945001 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.87621146 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 1.4 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.004999995 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.0035714253 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 1.4 - 11.35 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,758,807,000,000 |
| Float Shares | 129,715,696 |
| Forward Eps | -0.77685 |
| Forward P E | -1.808586 |
| Free Cashflow | -102,067,872 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGM |
| Full Time Employees | 341 |
| Fullday Change | -0.18500006 |
| Fullday Change Percent | -11.635223 |
| Fullday Price | 1.405 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Gross Margins | 1.0 |
| Gross Profits | 7,152,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.36091 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.45288 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 200,618,170 |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure |
| Industry Disp | Software - Infrastructure |
| Industry Key | software-infrastructure |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,025-09-25 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Kodiak AI, Inc. engages in the development of autonomous vehicle technology and related services. It offers Kodiak Driver, a virtual driver that combines advanced AI-powered software with modular and vehicle-agnostic hardware designed to help address its customers. The company also provides oversight and integration tools, including Kodiak OnTime, a proprietary suite of support services and tools designed to provide smooth integration with customer operations. In addition, it delivers freight through its autonomous trucks; and offers driver-as-a-service to its customers. Kodiak AI, Inc. has strategic collaboration with General Dynamics Land Systems to create autonomous ground vehicles (AGVs) for defense applications. The company serves long-haul trucking, industrial trucking, and defense industries. Kodiak AI, Inc. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California. |
| Long Name | Kodiak AI, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 281,868,544 |
| Market State | REGULAR |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_576664358 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -359,080,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 599,848,328 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 9 |
| Open | 1.59 |
| Operating Cashflow | -121,199,000 |
| Operating Margins | -12.48271 |
| Phone | 650 209 8005 |
| Previous Close | 1.59 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -2.492549 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | -1.4439876 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 39.411148 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 5.374 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.33333 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.18500006 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -11.635223 |
| Regular Market Day High | 1.605 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 1.4 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 1.4 - 1.605 |
| Regular Market Open | 1.59 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 1.59 |
| Regular Market Price | 1.405 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,173,968 |
| Regular Market Volume | 2,950,978 |
| Return On Assets | -0.7539 |
| Revenue Growth | 5.956 |
| Revenue Per Share | 0.047 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.16207206 |
| Sector | Technology |
| Sector Disp | Technology |
| Sector Key | technology |
| Shares Outstanding | 200,618,170 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0493 |
| Shares Short | 9,881,992 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 8,930,670 |
| Short Name | Kodiak AI, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.077800006 |
| Short Ratio | 2.66 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | KDK |
| Target High Price | 13.0 |
| Target Low Price | 8.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 10.5 |
| Target Median Price | 11.0 |
| Total Cash | 151,056,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.753 |
| Total Debt | 47,803,000 |
| Total Revenue | 7,152,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -2.91 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 6.4702 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -5.0652 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.78285056 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 2,950,978 |
| Website | https://kodiak.ai |
| Zip | 94,043-7373 |