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Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)

Financial Services | Credit Services | Minneapolis, United States | NasdaqGS
20.30 USD -0.24 (-1.168%) ⇩ (Oct. 14, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 20.30
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 2:42 a.m. EDT

Jefferson Capital presents a classic value trap scenario where attractive headline numbers mask severe operational deterioration. While the forward P/E of 6.5 looks compelling, it is built on an EPS of $3.07 that implies a massive turnaround from the reported -96% earnings growth and negative free cash flow. The business is bleeding cash (-$127M FCF) while paying a dividend that exceeds its earnings generation (payout ratio > 100%), signaling that the current yield is unsustainable and likely funded by debt or capital reserves. The balance sheet is fragile with a debt-to-equity ratio near 300%, leaving little room for error if collections slow further. Although the stock trades near its 52-week lows, the recent price action shows no recovery momentum, hovering just below key moving averages. With no meaningful analyst coverage and a statistical forecast showing zero directional bias, the risk-reward profile is skewed against the buyer until the company demonstrates a sustained return to profitability.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.043792
AutoTheta0.044770
AutoARIMA0.045070
AutoETS0.045070

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 50%
H-stat 0.51
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.567
Excess Kurtosis 0.22
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-23
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-23
Debt to Equity Ratio 296.01
Revenue per Share 11.247
Market Cap 1,165,738,368
Trailing P/E 22.31
Forward P/E 6.60
Profit Margins 24.12%
Website https://www.jcap.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 2:42 a.m. EDT: Options activity is extremely thin with negligible volume and open interest across nearly all strikes. The sparse data shows minimal positioning, with a single out-of-the-money call strike noted for a later expiration, suggesting a lack of significant speculative conviction in either direction. Implied volatility remains elevated relative to the low liquidity, indicating uncertainty rather than a clear directional bet.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.09% 4.85% — —
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-24 0.24 1.085482
2026-05-26 0.24 1.388086
2026-03-24 0.24 1.243523
2025-11-25 0.24 1.136902
2025-08-25 0.24 1.232033
Additional Data
dividendYield 4.67
exDividendDate 2026-08-24
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.48
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.023369035
lastDividendValue 0.24
lastDividendDate 2026-08-24
dividendDate 2026-09-03

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.13105726
Address1 600 South Highway 169
Address2 Suite 1575
All Time High 24.44
All Time Low 15.5
Ask 25.98
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 6
Average Analyst Rating 1.6 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 278,630
Average Daily Volume3 Month 323,287
Average Volume 323,287
Average Volume10Days 278,630
Bid 14.39
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 10
Book Value 8.291
City Minneapolis
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 8
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 20.3
Current Ratio 5.355
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 20.3875
Day Low 19.99
Debt To Equity 296.01
Display Name Jefferson Capital
Dividend Date 1,788,393,600
Dividend Yield 4.67
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,654,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,654,800
Earnings Growth -0.96
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.133
Earnings Timestamp 1,786,651,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,794,859,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,794,859,200
Ebitda 389,721,984
Ebitda Margins 0.60636
Enterprise To Ebitda 6.556
Enterprise To Revenue 3.975
Enterprise Value 2,554,903,296
Eps Current Year 3.0
Eps Forward 3.075
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.91
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,787,529,600
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 15
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 20.8893
Fifty Day Average Change -0.58930016
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.028210623
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 13.105726
Fifty Two Week High 24.44
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.1400013
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.16939448
Fifty Two Week Low 15.5
Fifty Two Week Low Change 4.799999
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.30967736
Fifty Two Week Range 15.5 - 24.44
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,750,944,600,000
Float Shares 16,773,425
Forward Eps 3.075
Forward P E 6.6016254
Free Cashflow -127,625,624
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 1,120
Fullday Change -0.24000168
Fullday Change Percent -1.1684599
Fullday Price 20.3
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.75158995
Gross Profits 483,063,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.08833
Held Percent Institutions 0.95985
Implied Shares Outstanding 57,425,536
Industry Credit Services
Industry Disp Credit Services
Industry Key credit-services
Ipo Expected Date 2,025-06-26
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,787,529,600
Last Dividend Value 0.24
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of consumer receivables at discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay obligations and work toward financial recovery. The company offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, utilities, telecom, and other receivables. It also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans. Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Long Name Jefferson Capital, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,165,738,368
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_118953816
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 128,473,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,097,401,992
Number Of Analyst Opinions 5
Open 20.2
Operating Cashflow 221,142,000
Operating Margins 0.61196
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 1.0548999
Phone 320 229 8505
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 20.3
Post Market Time 1,792,008,072
Previous Close 20.54
Price Eps Current Year 6.7666664
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 2.448438
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.8137436
Profit Margins 0.24119
Quick Ratio 5.34
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 1.6
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.240002
Regular Market Change Percent -1.16846
Regular Market Day High 20.3875
Regular Market Day Low 19.99
Regular Market Day Range 19.99 - 20.3875
Regular Market Open 20.2
Regular Market Previous Close 20.54
Regular Market Price 20.3
Regular Market Time 1,792,008,001
Regular Market Volume 199,174
Return On Assets 0.12515001
Return On Equity 0.34952998
Revenue Growth 0.115
Revenue Per Share 11.247
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17004645
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 57,425,536
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0154
Shares Short 881,489
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 978,762
Short Name Jefferson Capital, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.045
Short Ratio 3.61
Source Interval 15
State MN
Symbol JCAP
Target High Price 30.0
Target Low Price 24.0
Target Mean Price 28.2
Target Median Price 29.0
Total Cash 20,406,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.355
Total Debt 1,409,570,944
Total Revenue 642,724,992
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.48
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.023369035
Trailing Eps 0.91
Trailing P E 22.307692
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 20.135025
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.16497421
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.008193395
Type Disp Equity
Volume 199,174
Website https://www.jcap.com
Zip 55,426