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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | Atlanta, United States | NYSE
7.86 USD -0.08 (-1.008%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 7.86
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★☆☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:12 a.m. EDT

The long-term outlook is dire, driven by a brutal multi-year collapse where the stock has lost nearly 95% of its value over the last nine years. The most recent four consecutive years of negative returns confirm a structural deterioration in the business, rendering any 'value' narrative moot as the market has correctly priced in a failing franchise. The balance sheet is precarious, with debt-to-equity exceeding 600 and a current ratio of 0.045, signaling severe liquidity stress. While the dividend yield appears astronomical at 18%, it is a dangerous trap; the payout ratio of 179% indicates the company is burning cash to pay shareholders, eroding book value rather than generating sustainable income. Short-term momentum remains weak, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day averages, and options activity screams caution with heavy hedging on the downside. This is a classic value trap where the low price reflects a broken business model.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.031277
AutoETS0.039628
AutoTheta0.039901
MSTL0.044623

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 58%
H-stat 3.24
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.108
Excess Kurtosis -0.19
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-06-22
Last Dividend Date 2026-06-22
Debt to Equity Ratio 612.55
Revenue per Share 1.124
Market Cap 771,852,032
Trailing P/E 10.08
Forward P/E 3.81
Beta 1.54
Profit Margins 76.66%
Website https://www.invescomortgagecapital.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:12 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts relative to calls across all expirations. The put/call ratio is heavily skewed toward bearish bets, with significant volume flowing into deep out-of-the-money strikes (e.g., $6.00 calls vs $6.00 puts), suggesting a fear of a sharp decline rather than a rally. Implied volatility is elevated on the downside side, indicating the market prices in a high probability of further losses.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.54% 17.68% 18.46% 18.12%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-23 0.12 1.536492
2026-05-26 0.12 1.515152
2026-04-27 0.12 1.447527
2026-03-24 0.12 1.540436
2026-02-24 0.12 1.431981
2026-01-26 0.12 1.359003
2025-12-29 0.36 4.311377
2025-10-06 0.34 4.539386
2025-07-07 0.34 4.479578
2025-04-07 0.34 5.182927
2024-12-30 0.40 5.181347
2024-10-07 0.40 4.784689
2024-07-05 0.40 4.540295
2024-04-05 0.40 4.519774
2023-12-28 0.40 4.405286
2023-10-05 0.40 4.608295
2023-06-30 0.40 3.487358
2023-04-06 0.40 3.717472
2023-01-06 0.65 5.098039
2022-10-07 0.65 6.292352
2022-07-08 0.90 6.202619
2022-04-07 0.90 4.477612
2022-01-10 0.90 3.125000
2021-10-08 0.90 2.839117
2021-07-02 0.90 2.432432
2021-04-08 0.90 2.272727
2021-01-11 0.80 2.388060
2020-10-08 0.50 1.754386
2020-07-02 0.20 0.571429
2020-05-20 0.50 1.742160
2019-12-26 5.00 2.979738
2019-09-26 4.50 2.918288
2019-06-27 4.50 2.812500
2019-03-28 4.50 2.835539
2018-12-24 4.20 3.050109
2018-09-24 4.20 2.676864
2018-06-26 4.20 2.615193
2018-03-26 4.20 2.605459
2017-12-22 4.20 2.363534
2017-09-26 4.10 2.426036
2017-06-23 4.00 2.388060
2017-03-23 4.00 2.647253
2016-12-22 4.00 2.719239
2016-09-23 4.00 2.592353
2016-06-23 4.00 2.888087
2016-03-23 4.00 3.421728
2015-12-23 4.00 3.103181
2015-09-24 4.00 3.058104
2015-06-24 4.50 2.956636
2015-03-26 4.50 2.914508
2014-12-24 4.50 2.899485
2014-09-24 5.00 3.109453
2014-06-25 5.00 2.910361
2014-03-27 5.00 3.075031
2013-12-24 5.00 3.380663
2013-09-24 5.00 3.190811
2013-06-25 6.50 3.929867
2013-03-27 6.50 3.027480
2012-12-20 6.50 3.205128
2012-09-20 6.50 3.198819
2012-06-22 6.50 3.559693
2012-03-22 6.50 3.716410
2011-12-20 6.50 4.555011
2011-09-15 8.00 4.881025
2011-06-15 9.70 4.614653
2011-03-18 10.00 4.512635
2010-12-29 9.70 4.451583
2010-09-28 10.00 4.589261
2010-06-28 7.40 3.615046
2010-03-29 7.80 3.458980
2009-12-29 10.50 4.607284
2009-10-21 6.10 2.942595
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.44
dividendYield 18.14
exDividendDate 2026-06-23
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.4
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.17632242
lastDividendValue 0.12
lastDividendDate 2026-06-23
dividendDate 2026-07-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.050264597
Address1 1,331 Spring Street, N.W.
Address2 Suite 2500
All Time High 249.2
All Time Low 5.86
Ask 7.9
Ask Size 31,800
Audit Risk 6
Average Analyst Rating 2.8 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,710,540
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,490,234
Average Volume 2,490,234
Average Volume10Days 2,710,540
Beta 1.542
Bid 7.89
Bid Size 24,400
Board Risk 3
Book Value 8.14
City Atlanta
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,325,289,600
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 7.86
Current Ratio 0.045
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 7.945
Day Low 7.84
Debt To Equity 612.55
Display Name Invesco Mortgage Capital
Dividend Date 1,784,073,600
Dividend Rate 1.44
Dividend Yield 18.14
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,777,640,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,777,640,400
Earnings Timestamp 1,777,579,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,784,836,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,784,836,800
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 77.094
Enterprise Value 6,208,167,936
Eps Current Year 2.08072
Eps Forward 2.0632
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.78
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,782,172,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 7.9596
Fifty Day Average Change -0.09959984
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.012513171
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 5.0264597
Fifty Two Week High 9.5
Fifty Two Week High Change -1.6399999
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.17263156
Fifty Two Week Low 7.1
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.7600002
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.10704229
Fifty Two Week Range 7.1 - 9.5
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,246,455,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 19.14
Float Shares 92,549,440
Forward Eps 2.0632
Forward P E 3.809616
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 80,527,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0029499999
Held Percent Institutions 0.4049
Implied Shares Outstanding 98,200,000
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,782,172,800
Last Dividend Value 0.12
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,654,473,600
Last Split Factor 1:10
Long Business Summary Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by the United States (U.S.) government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; the U.S. treasury securities; real estate-related financing arrangements; to-be-announced securities forward contracts to purchase RMBS; and commercial mortgage loans. It has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Long Name Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 771,852,032
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_45988053
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 48,763,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 779,708,000
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 7.915
Operating Cashflow 164,424,000
Operating Margins 1.32578
Overall Risk 5
Payout Ratio 1.7949001
Peg Ratio 7.2
Phone 404 892 0896
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 7.86
Post Market Time 1,783,984,727
Previous Close 7.94
Price Eps Current Year 3.7775388
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.9656019
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 9.58501
Profit Margins 0.76662004
Quick Ratio 0.015
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.83333
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.0799999
Regular Market Change Percent -1.00756
Regular Market Day High 7.945
Regular Market Day Low 7.84
Regular Market Day Range 7.84 - 7.945
Regular Market Open 7.915
Regular Market Previous Close 7.94
Regular Market Price 7.86
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 2,017,935
Return On Assets 0.00993
Return On Equity 0.07549
Revenue Per Share 1.124
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 98,200,000
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.1037
Shares Short 10,182,915
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 8,232,979
Short Name INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC
Short Percent Of Float 0.1039
Short Ratio 3.83
Source Interval 15
State GA
Symbol IVR
Target High Price 9.5
Target Low Price 7.75
Target Mean Price 8.5
Target Median Price 8.25
Total Cash 53,717,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.579
Total Debt 5,368,102,912
Total Revenue 80,527,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.4
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.17632242
Trailing Eps 0.78
Trailing P E 10.076923
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 8.10745
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.2474494
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.030521238
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,017,935
Website https://www.invescomortgagecapital.com
Zip 30,309