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Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)

Financial Services | Financial Conglomerates | Dallas, United States | NYSE
36.85 USD +0.08 (0.218%) ⇧ (Oct. 16, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 36.85

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 6:20 a.m. EDT

The investment case here rests on a divergence between a fundamentally stable business and a stock that appears oversold relative to its long-term trajectory. Over the last nine years, the company has delivered a +35.52% cumulative return with no consecutive years of decline at the end of the window, suggesting the recent price weakness is a temporary dislocation rather than a structural failure. Fundamentally, the balance sheet is healthy with a payout ratio of just 28%, allowing for sustainable dividends even as earnings growth remains modest. However, the short-term outlook is muted; the stock is trading below its 50-day moving average, and the statistical forecast model offers only a negligible upward bias with moderate confidence. While the options market is aggressively betting on a rebound to $40, the immediate technical setup lacks the explosive momentum required for a high-conviction entry. This is a solid mid-tier hold for income and mean reversion, but not a breakout play until the price clears its recent resistance.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.027604
AutoETS0.027605
MSTL0.029455
AutoTheta0.032621

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 51%
H-stat 4.95
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.786
Excess Kurtosis 0.45
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-06
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-06
Revenue per Share 21.213
Market Cap 2,111,004,288
Trailing P/E 13.65
Forward P/E 14.89
Beta 0.89
Profit Margins 12.73%
Website https://www.hilltop.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 6:20 a.m. EDT: Speculator positioning is overwhelmingly bullish, with significant open interest concentrated in out-of-the-money calls at the $40 strike across multiple expirations. This suggests a consensus expectation of a move toward the upper end of the trading range, while put activity is virtually non-existent, indicating a lack of hedging against downside risk.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.56% 2.15% 2.19% 2.09%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-07 0.220 0.563525
2026-05-08 0.200 0.529661
2026-02-13 0.200 0.509295
2025-11-07 0.180 0.545124
2025-08-15 0.180 0.562500
2025-05-08 0.180 0.592105
2025-02-13 0.180 0.564086
2024-11-08 0.170 0.522755
2024-08-16 0.170 0.543478
2024-05-09 0.170 0.540369
2024-02-09 0.170 0.549984
2023-11-10 0.160 0.556328
2023-08-10 0.160 0.513149
2023-05-09 0.160 0.520325
2023-02-09 0.160 0.475342
2022-11-09 0.150 0.525210
2022-08-11 0.150 0.514933
2022-05-12 0.150 0.522466
2022-02-14 0.150 0.461823
2021-11-12 0.120 0.323625
2021-08-12 0.120 0.360685
2021-05-13 0.120 0.331309
2021-02-11 0.120 0.379507
2020-11-13 0.090 0.376727
2020-08-13 0.090 0.441609
2020-05-14 0.090 0.643777
2020-02-13 0.090 0.401427
2019-11-14 0.080 0.321285
2019-08-14 0.080 0.362647
2019-05-14 0.080 0.391198
2019-02-14 0.080 0.428036
2018-11-14 0.070 0.367647
2018-08-14 0.070 0.331911
2018-05-14 0.070 0.313620
2018-02-14 0.070 0.277778
2017-11-14 0.060 0.265487
2017-08-11 0.060 0.236873
2017-05-11 0.060 0.230061
2017-02-13 0.060 0.216685
2016-11-10 0.060 0.227531
2005-06-28 0.188 1.437309
2005-03-29 0.313 2.528271
2004-12-29 0.313 2.181185
2004-09-28 0.313 1.996173
2004-06-28 0.313 1.896970
2004-03-29 0.149 0.814653
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.8
dividendYield 2.18
exDividendDate 2026-08-07
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.76
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.020669023
lastDividendValue 0.22
lastDividendDate 2026-08-07
dividendDate 2026-08-21

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.15738118
Address1 6,565 Hillcrest Avenue
All Time High 40.41
All Time Low 6.88
Ask 36.77
Ask Size 200
Audit Risk 10
Average Analyst Rating 3.3 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 314,870
Average Daily Volume3 Month 287,812
Average Volume 287,812
Average Volume10Days 314,870
Beta 0.885
Bid 36.73
Bid Size 200
Board Risk 9
Book Value 37.117
City Dallas
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 36.85
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 37.44
Day Low 36.74
Display Name Hilltop
Dividend Date 1,787,270,400
Dividend Rate 0.8
Dividend Yield 2.18
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,792,785,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,792,785,600
Earnings Growth 0.111
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.012
Earnings Timestamp 1,792,699,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,792,699,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,792,699,200
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 2.788
Enterprise Value 3,541,153,536
Eps Current Year 2.44
Eps Forward 2.475
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 2.7
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,786,060,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 38.3196
Fifty Day Average Change -1.4696007
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.03835115
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 15.738117
Fifty Two Week High 40.41
Fifty Two Week High Change -3.5600014
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.08809704
Fifty Two Week Low 31.02
Fifty Two Week Low Change 5.829998
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.18794319
Fifty Two Week Range 31.02 - 40.41
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,077,201,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.99
Float Shares 38,202,020
Forward Eps 2.475
Forward P E 14.888889
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 3,600
Fullday Change 0.07999802
Fullday Change Percent 0.21756327
Fullday Price 36.85
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.0
Gross Profits 1,270,299,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.32685003
Held Percent Institutions 0.5728
Implied Shares Outstanding 57,286,417
Industry Financial Conglomerates
Industry Disp Financial Conglomerates
Industry Key financial-conglomerates
Ir Website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=147468&p=irol-stockQuote
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,786,060,800
Last Dividend Value 0.22
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking services. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, term, agricultural and commercial real estate, equipment loans, and other lending products; and mortgage, commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance. It provides treasury management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, and overdraft privilege services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts services, as well as automated teller machines. The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; advisory services and products for derivatives and commodities; agricultural insurance; and sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds; mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products; and provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment offers fixed and adjustable rate mortgages, jumbo, new construction, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Long Name Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 2,111,004,288
Market State POST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_24451
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 161,760,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,186,622,536
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 37.05
Operating Cashflow -94,670,000
Operating Margins 0.15799
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 0.28149998
Peg Ratio 0.61
Phone 214 855 2177
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 36.85
Post Market Time 1,792,184,700
Previous Close 36.77
Price Eps Current Year 15.102458
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.9928065
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.6618168
Profit Margins 0.12734
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 3.25
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.079998
Regular Market Change Percent 0.217563
Regular Market Day High 37.44
Regular Market Day Low 36.74
Regular Market Day Range 36.74 - 37.44
Regular Market Open 37.05
Regular Market Previous Close 36.77
Regular Market Price 36.85
Regular Market Time 1,792,180,803
Regular Market Volume 258,783
Return On Assets 0.010620001
Return On Equity 0.076009996
Revenue Growth 0.052
Revenue Per Share 21.213
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 7
Shares Outstanding 57,286,417
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.042
Shares Short 2,403,875
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 2,269,571
Short Name Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0726
Short Ratio 6.94
Source Interval 15
State TX
Symbol HTH
Target High Price 42.0
Target Low Price 40.0
Target Mean Price 41.0
Target Median Price 41.0
Total Cash 1,587,552,000
Total Cash Per Share 27.713
Total Debt 2,987,638,016
Total Revenue 1,270,299,008
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.76
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.020669023
Trailing Eps 2.7
Trailing P E 13.648148
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 37.59905
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.74905014
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.01992205
Type Disp Equity
Volume 258,783
Website https://www.hilltop.com
Zip 75,205