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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Consumer Cyclical | Recreational Vehicles | Milwaukee, United States | NYSE
28.10 USD +0.26 (0.934%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4:02 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 27.76 -0.34 (-0.340%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 8 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 2:35 a.m. EDT

Harley-Davidson presents a classic value trap scenario where the balance sheet looks manageable but the business trajectory is broken. The company is currently trading at a discount to book value, yet it is dragging itself down with a -20.87% drop last year and a cumulative loss of nearly 47% over the past nine years. While the dividend yield of 2.66% provides some cushion, the payout ratio sits at a precarious 40.8%, meaning the company is burning cash to pay shareholders while operating cash flow is effectively negative (-$255k). The recent price action shows a slight bounce off the lows, but the underlying fundamentals—shrinking revenue and negative earnings growth—suggest the market is correctly pricing in a struggle to regain relevance. The options market confirms this anxiety, with traders stacking protection at deep discounts rather than betting on an immediate rally. Until the company demonstrates sustained revenue growth and positive operating cash flow, this remains a hold for income seekers only, not a core investment.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.047372
AutoETS0.049639
MSTL0.062474
AutoTheta0.063334

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 37%
H-stat 4.33
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.002
Excess Kurtosis 1.21
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Ex Dividend Date 2026-06-07
Last Dividend Date 2026-06-07
Debt to Equity Ratio 74.04
Revenue per Share 37.694
Market Cap 2,924,437,504
Trailing P/E 15.44
Forward P/E 14.16
Beta 1.29
Profit Margins 4.78%
Website https://www.harley-davidson.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 2:35 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put volume and open interest walls at strikes significantly below the current price (e.g., $15, $20, $23), suggesting a fear of a sharp downside gap. Conversely, there is notable call volume at distant strikes ($30-$40 range) indicating asymmetric bets on a recovery, but the immediate term is dominated by hedging against further weakness rather than aggressive bullish speculation.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.75% 3.24% 2.55% 2.18%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-08 0.1880 0.754717
2026-03-02 0.1880 1.057963
2025-12-09 0.1800 0.823045
2025-09-10 0.1800 0.599401
2025-06-02 0.1800 0.760456
2025-02-28 0.1800 0.698758
2024-12-10 0.1730 0.521084
2024-09-16 0.1730 0.455743
2024-06-05 0.1730 0.489530
2024-03-01 0.1730 0.476059
2023-12-08 0.1650 0.514019
2023-09-11 0.1650 0.506757
2023-06-02 0.1650 0.501978
2023-03-02 0.1650 0.351587
2022-12-08 0.1580 0.345657
2022-09-09 0.1580 0.384709
2022-06-01 0.1580 0.466765
2022-02-25 0.1580 0.386876
2021-12-07 0.1500 0.391236
2021-09-09 0.1500 0.403877
2021-06-09 0.1500 0.314994
2021-03-01 0.1500 0.415167
2020-12-03 0.0200 0.050633
2020-09-09 0.0200 0.069348
2020-05-21 0.0200 0.084818
2020-03-04 0.3800 1.262878
2019-12-13 0.3750 1.004016
2019-09-16 0.3750 1.037631
2019-05-29 0.3750 1.127142
2019-03-13 0.3750 1.027961
2018-12-13 0.3700 1.059261
2018-09-17 0.3700 0.833897
2018-05-30 0.3700 0.881162
2018-02-13 0.3700 0.783069
2017-12-14 0.3650 0.729708
2017-09-11 0.3650 0.767290
2017-05-23 0.3650 0.690765
2017-02-13 0.3650 0.638558
2016-12-14 0.3500 0.583333
2016-09-09 0.3500 0.692110
2016-05-24 0.3500 0.785810
2016-02-12 0.3500 0.903926
2015-12-09 0.3100 0.671868
2015-09-11 0.3100 0.565900
2015-05-26 0.3100 0.564252
2015-02-13 0.3100 0.485133
2014-12-12 0.2750 0.414032
2014-09-12 0.2750 0.426886
2014-05-27 0.2750 0.387106
2014-02-14 0.2750 0.423207
2013-12-13 0.2100 0.311065
2013-09-13 0.2100 0.331754
2013-05-28 0.2100 0.372671
2013-02-14 0.2100 0.392891
2012-12-14 0.1550 0.324064
2012-09-26 0.1550 0.369664
2012-05-29 0.1550 0.319654
2012-02-16 0.1550 0.341109
2011-12-16 0.1250 0.340692
2011-09-28 0.1250 0.350042
2011-05-31 0.1250 0.336383
2011-02-17 0.1000 0.235793
2010-12-17 0.1000 0.289855
2010-09-29 0.1000 0.352858
2010-06-01 0.1000 0.342700
2010-02-19 0.1000 0.409333
2009-12-17 0.1000 0.390778
2009-09-24 0.1000 0.424989
2009-06-02 0.1000 0.525210
2009-03-03 0.1000 1.079914
2008-12-17 0.3300 1.948052
2008-09-29 0.3300 0.870024
2008-06-03 0.3300 0.825206
2008-03-03 0.3000 0.809280
2007-12-19 0.3000 0.647948
2007-09-27 0.3000 0.645995
2007-06-07 0.2500 0.418550
2007-03-01 0.2100 0.323027
2006-12-20 0.2100 0.298041
2006-09-29 0.2100 0.334661
2006-06-05 0.2100 0.428571
2006-03-07 0.1800 0.352250
2005-12-14 0.1800 0.339111
2005-09-29 0.1600 0.341151
2005-06-10 0.1600 0.324873
2005-03-04 0.1250 0.202593
2004-12-15 0.1250 0.210084
2004-09-13 0.1000 0.159541
2004-06-01 0.1000 0.173010
2004-03-09 0.0800 0.151831
2003-12-11 0.0800 0.170249
2003-09-15 0.0400 0.084926
2003-06-06 0.0400 0.089827
2003-03-10 0.0350 0.094774
2002-12-18 0.0350 0.075464
2002-09-16 0.0350 0.072031
2002-06-07 0.0350 0.066679
2002-03-08 0.0300 0.054685
2001-12-13 0.0300 0.058038
2001-09-17 0.0300 0.073638
2001-06-07 0.0300 0.064309
2001-03-08 0.0250 0.056831
2000-12-14 0.0250 0.064205
2000-09-06 0.0250 0.050441
2000-06-12 0.0250 0.066007
2000-03-13 0.0225 0.063047
1999-12-16 0.0225 0.077253
1999-09-13 0.0225 0.084906
1999-06-11 0.0225 0.080000
1999-03-11 0.0200 0.067797
1998-12-16 0.0200 0.095952
1998-09-11 0.0200 0.132780
1998-06-12 0.0200 0.108844
1998-03-13 0.0175 0.114990
1997-12-18 0.0175 0.131765
1997-09-10 0.0175 0.130384
1997-06-12 0.0175 0.146982
1997-03-13 0.0150 0.162712
1996-12-19 0.0150 0.142433
1996-09-12 0.0150 0.146789
1996-06-12 0.0125 0.104439
1996-03-13 0.0125 0.136054
1995-12-13 0.0125 0.190476
1995-08-30 0.0125 0.180180
1995-05-18 0.0100 0.157635
1995-02-13 0.0100 0.148837
1994-11-21 0.0100 0.156098
1994-08-23 0.0100 0.144470
1994-05-18 0.0010 0.016452
1994-02-08 0.0075 0.124675
1993-10-26 0.0075 0.146341
1993-07-27 0.0075 0.150943
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.74
dividendYield 2.64
exDividendDate 2026-06-08
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.735
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.026400862
lastDividendValue 0.188
lastDividendDate 2026-06-08
dividendDate 2026-06-25

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.040628195
Address1 3,700 West Juneau Avenue
All Time High 75.87
All Time Low 0.226563
Ask 28.41
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 3
Average Analyst Rating 2.5 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,789,420
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,541,533
Average Volume 2,541,533
Average Volume10Days 1,789,420
Beta 1.29
Bid 28.13
Bid Size 200
Board Risk 2
Book Value 29.779
City Milwaukee
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 7
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 28.1
Current Ratio 1.903
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 28.35
Day Low 27.63
Debt To Equity 74.04
Display Name Harley-Davidson
Dividend Date 1,782,345,600
Dividend Rate 0.74
Dividend Yield 2.64
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,784,811,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,784,811,600
Earnings Growth -0.15
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.258
Earnings Timestamp 1,784,809,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,795,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,795,400
Ebitda 427,424,992
Ebitda Margins 0.100810006
Enterprise To Ebitda 9.277
Enterprise To Revenue 0.935
Enterprise Value 3,965,049,344
Eps Current Year 0.67455
Eps Forward 1.9843
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.82
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,780,876,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 26.155
Fifty Day Average Change 1.9449997
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.07436435
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -4.0628195
Fifty Two Week High 31.25
Fifty Two Week High Change -3.1499996
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.100799985
Fifty Two Week Low 17.09
Fifty Two Week Low Change 11.01
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.6442364
Fifty Two Week Range 17.09 - 31.25
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 521,213,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.06
Float Shares 102,943,320
Forward Eps 1.9843
Forward P E 14.161165
Free Cashflow 110,030,248
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 5,500
Fullday Change 0.26
Fullday Change Percent 0.933909
Fullday Price 27.76
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,785,542,400
Gross Margins 0.27989
Gross Profits 1,186,695,040
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.011849999
Held Percent Institutions 1.118
Implied Shares Outstanding 104,072,507
Industry Recreational Vehicles
Industry Disp Recreational Vehicles
Industry Key recreational-vehicles
Ir Website http://investor.harley-davidson.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=87981&p=irol-stockquote&locale=en_US&bmLocale=en_US
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,780,876,800
Last Dividend Value 0.188
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 955,324,800
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Long Name Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 2,924,437,504
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_277444
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 202,643,008
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,897,378,594
Number Of Analyst Opinions 11
Open 28.26
Operating Cashflow -255,000
Operating Margins 0.05633
Overall Risk 2
Payout Ratio 0.4083
Peg Ratio 2.88
Phone 414 342 4680
Post Market Change -0.34000015
Post Market Change Percent -1.209965
Post Market Price 27.76
Post Market Time 1,787,961,600
Previous Close 27.84
Price Eps Current Year 41.657402
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.943618
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.6897527
Profit Margins 0.0478
Quick Ratio 1.592
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.5
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.26
Regular Market Change Percent 0.933909
Regular Market Day High 28.35
Regular Market Day Low 27.63
Regular Market Day Range 27.63 - 28.35
Regular Market Open 28.26
Regular Market Previous Close 27.84
Regular Market Price 28.1
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,354
Regular Market Volume 1,146,884
Return On Assets 0.01623
Return On Equity 0.06093
Revenue Growth -0.059
Revenue Per Share 37.694
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20204377
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 1
Shares Outstanding 104,072,507
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.17979999
Shares Short 18,713,594
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 17,121,897
Short Name Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.2442
Short Ratio 7.22
Source Interval 15
State WI
Symbol HOG
Target High Price 33.0
Target Low Price 17.0
Target Mean Price 27.63636
Target Median Price 30.0
Total Cash 1,283,299,968
Total Cash Per Share 12.331
Total Debt 2,307,102,976
Total Revenue 4,239,834,880
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.735
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.026400862
Trailing Eps 1.82
Trailing P E 15.43956
Trailing Peg Ratio 2.8838
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 22.9434
Two Hundred Day Average Change 5.156601
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.22475314
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,146,884
Website https://www.harley-davidson.com
Zip 53,208