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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Consumer Cyclical | Recreational Vehicles | Milwaukee, United States | NYSE
25.39 USD +0.25 (0.994%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 25.40 +0.01 (0.039%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:44 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Harley-Davidson is currently compromised by a severe multi-year structural decline. Despite a recent price rebound, the underlying business has suffered six consecutive years of negative annual returns, with the last two years showing significant drops. This persistent deterioration suggests the market views the current valuation as insufficient to offset the risk of continued decline, rendering the low P/E a warning sign rather than a bargain. The balance sheet remains fragile with debt-to-equity exceeding 70%, and earnings growth is deeply negative. While the 3% dividend yield provides some income, it is not enough to counteract the fundamental rot. On the short end, the heavy options positioning in downside protection confirms that speculators expect further weakness. The stock is a value trap waiting for a catalyst that has not yet materialized.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.027461
AutoARIMA0.027743
AutoETS0.027768
AutoTheta0.032804

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 49%
H-stat 0.27
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.280
Excess Kurtosis -0.93
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Ex Dividend Date 2026-06-07
Last Dividend Date 2026-06-07
Debt to Equity Ratio 71.433
Revenue per Share 37.023
Market Cap 2,672,762,112
Trailing P/E 13.02
Forward P/E 13.08
Beta 1.27
Profit Margins 5.34%
Website https://www.harley-davidson.com

As of July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 15, 20, 22) compared to calls. The put/call ratio is skewed significantly toward selling, with deep OTM put volume far exceeding call volume. While there is some speculative buying of calls at strikes 28 and 30+, the overwhelming capital allocation is defensive, suggesting a fear of further decline rather than a bullish breakout.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.75% 3.24% 2.55% 2.18%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-08 0.1880 0.754717
2026-03-02 0.1880 1.057963
2025-12-09 0.1800 0.823045
2025-09-10 0.1800 0.599401
2025-06-02 0.1800 0.760456
2025-02-28 0.1800 0.698758
2024-12-10 0.1730 0.521084
2024-09-16 0.1730 0.455743
2024-06-05 0.1730 0.489530
2024-03-01 0.1730 0.476059
2023-12-08 0.1650 0.514019
2023-09-11 0.1650 0.506757
2023-06-02 0.1650 0.501978
2023-03-02 0.1650 0.351587
2022-12-08 0.1580 0.345657
2022-09-09 0.1580 0.384709
2022-06-01 0.1580 0.466765
2022-02-25 0.1580 0.386876
2021-12-07 0.1500 0.391236
2021-09-09 0.1500 0.403877
2021-06-09 0.1500 0.314994
2021-03-01 0.1500 0.415167
2020-12-03 0.0200 0.050633
2020-09-09 0.0200 0.069348
2020-05-21 0.0200 0.084818
2020-03-04 0.3800 1.262878
2019-12-13 0.3750 1.004016
2019-09-16 0.3750 1.037631
2019-05-29 0.3750 1.127142
2019-03-13 0.3750 1.027961
2018-12-13 0.3700 1.059261
2018-09-17 0.3700 0.833897
2018-05-30 0.3700 0.881162
2018-02-13 0.3700 0.783069
2017-12-14 0.3650 0.729708
2017-09-11 0.3650 0.767290
2017-05-23 0.3650 0.690765
2017-02-13 0.3650 0.638558
2016-12-14 0.3500 0.583333
2016-09-09 0.3500 0.692110
2016-05-24 0.3500 0.785810
2016-02-12 0.3500 0.903926
2015-12-09 0.3100 0.671868
2015-09-11 0.3100 0.565900
2015-05-26 0.3100 0.564252
2015-02-13 0.3100 0.485133
2014-12-12 0.2750 0.414032
2014-09-12 0.2750 0.426886
2014-05-27 0.2750 0.387106
2014-02-14 0.2750 0.423207
2013-12-13 0.2100 0.311065
2013-09-13 0.2100 0.331754
2013-05-28 0.2100 0.372671
2013-02-14 0.2100 0.392891
2012-12-14 0.1550 0.324064
2012-09-26 0.1550 0.369664
2012-05-29 0.1550 0.319654
2012-02-16 0.1550 0.341109
2011-12-16 0.1250 0.340692
2011-09-28 0.1250 0.350042
2011-05-31 0.1250 0.336383
2011-02-17 0.1000 0.235793
2010-12-17 0.1000 0.289855
2010-09-29 0.1000 0.352858
2010-06-01 0.1000 0.342700
2010-02-19 0.1000 0.409333
2009-12-17 0.1000 0.390778
2009-09-24 0.1000 0.424989
2009-06-02 0.1000 0.525210
2009-03-03 0.1000 1.079914
2008-12-17 0.3300 1.948052
2008-09-29 0.3300 0.870024
2008-06-03 0.3300 0.825206
2008-03-03 0.3000 0.809280
2007-12-19 0.3000 0.647948
2007-09-27 0.3000 0.645995
2007-06-07 0.2500 0.418550
2007-03-01 0.2100 0.323027
2006-12-20 0.2100 0.298041
2006-09-29 0.2100 0.334661
2006-06-05 0.2100 0.428571
2006-03-07 0.1800 0.352250
2005-12-14 0.1800 0.339111
2005-09-29 0.1600 0.341151
2005-06-10 0.1600 0.324873
2005-03-04 0.1250 0.202593
2004-12-15 0.1250 0.210084
2004-09-13 0.1000 0.159541
2004-06-01 0.1000 0.173010
2004-03-09 0.0800 0.151831
2003-12-11 0.0800 0.170249
2003-09-15 0.0400 0.084926
2003-06-06 0.0400 0.089827
2003-03-10 0.0350 0.094774
2002-12-18 0.0350 0.075464
2002-09-16 0.0350 0.072031
2002-06-07 0.0350 0.066679
2002-03-08 0.0300 0.054685
2001-12-13 0.0300 0.058038
2001-09-17 0.0300 0.073638
2001-06-07 0.0300 0.064309
2001-03-08 0.0250 0.056831
2000-12-14 0.0250 0.064205
2000-09-06 0.0250 0.050441
2000-06-12 0.0250 0.066007
2000-03-13 0.0225 0.063047
1999-12-16 0.0225 0.077253
1999-09-13 0.0225 0.084906
1999-06-11 0.0225 0.080000
1999-03-11 0.0200 0.067797
1998-12-16 0.0200 0.095952
1998-09-11 0.0200 0.132780
1998-06-12 0.0200 0.108844
1998-03-13 0.0175 0.114990
1997-12-18 0.0175 0.131765
1997-09-10 0.0175 0.130384
1997-06-12 0.0175 0.146982
1997-03-13 0.0150 0.162712
1996-12-19 0.0150 0.142433
1996-09-12 0.0150 0.146789
1996-06-12 0.0125 0.104439
1996-03-13 0.0125 0.136054
1995-12-13 0.0125 0.190476
1995-08-30 0.0125 0.180180
1995-05-18 0.0100 0.157635
1995-02-13 0.0100 0.148837
1994-11-21 0.0100 0.156098
1994-08-23 0.0100 0.144470
1994-05-18 0.0010 0.016452
1994-02-08 0.0075 0.124675
1993-10-26 0.0075 0.146341
1993-07-27 0.0075 0.150943
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.74
dividendYield 2.92
exDividendDate 2026-06-08
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.728
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.028957836
lastDividendValue 0.188
lastDividendDate 2026-06-08
dividendDate 2026-06-25

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.020706415
Address1 3,700 West Juneau Avenue
All Time High 75.87
All Time Low 0.226563
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 200
Audit Risk 3
Average Analyst Rating 2.6 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,422,460
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,912,970
Average Volume 2,912,970
Average Volume10Days 3,422,460
Beta 1.273
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 100
Board Risk 2
Book Value 29.108
City Milwaukee
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 7
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 25.39
Current Ratio 1.914
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 26.37
Day Low 25.36
Debt To Equity 71.433
Display Name Harley-Davidson
Dividend Date 1,782,345,600
Dividend Rate 0.74
Dividend Yield 2.92
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,784,836,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,784,836,800
Earnings Growth -0.794
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.814
Earnings Timestamp 1,784,809,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,784,809,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,784,809,800
Ebitda 483,783,008
Ebitda Margins 0.11208
Enterprise To Ebitda 7.864
Enterprise To Revenue 0.881
Enterprise Value 3,804,704,256
Eps Current Year 0.33032
Eps Forward 1.94097
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.95
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,780,876,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 24.7304
Fifty Day Average Change 0.6595993
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.026671598
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 2.0706415
Fifty Two Week High 31.25
Fifty Two Week High Change -5.8600006
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.18752001
Fifty Two Week Low 17.09
Fifty Two Week Low Change 8.299999
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.48566407
Fifty Two Week Range 17.09 - 31.25
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 521,213,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.06
Float Shares 104,147,195
Forward Eps 1.94097
Forward P E 13.081088
Free Cashflow 168,418,624
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 5,500
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.28904
Gross Profits 1,247,661,056
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0112
Held Percent Institutions 1.10054
Implied Shares Outstanding 105,268,302
Industry Recreational Vehicles
Industry Disp Recreational Vehicles
Industry Key recreational-vehicles
Ir Website http://investor.harley-davidson.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=87981&p=irol-stockquote&locale=en_US&bmLocale=en_US
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,780,876,800
Last Dividend Value 0.188
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 955,324,800
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Long Name Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 2,672,762,112
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_277444
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 230,407,008
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,646,445,112
Number Of Analyst Opinions 11
Open 25.6
Operating Cashflow 199,367,008
Operating Margins 0.03121
Overall Risk 2
Payout Ratio 0.3769
Peg Ratio 10.91
Phone 414 342 4680
Post Market Change 0.010000229
Post Market Change Percent 0.03938649
Post Market Price 25.4
Post Market Time 1,783,986,243
Previous Close 25.14
Price Eps Current Year 76.86485
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.8722688
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.6191971
Profit Margins 0.053379998
Quick Ratio 1.495
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.625
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.25
Regular Market Change Percent 0.994431
Regular Market Day High 26.37
Regular Market Day Low 25.36
Regular Market Day Range 25.36 - 26.37
Regular Market Open 25.6
Regular Market Previous Close 25.14
Regular Market Price 25.39
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 1,413,024
Return On Assets 0.01968
Return On Equity 0.07115
Revenue Growth -0.118
Revenue Per Share 37.023
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 1
Shares Outstanding 105,268,302
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.16219999
Shares Short 17,069,560
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 15,839,526
Short Name Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.2193
Short Ratio 5.66
Source Interval 15
State WI
Symbol HOG
Target High Price 32.0
Target Low Price 15.0
Target Mean Price 26.18182
Target Median Price 27.0
Total Cash 1,084,227,968
Total Cash Per Share 10.3
Total Debt 2,200,221,952
Total Revenue 4,316,496,896
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.728
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.028957836
Trailing Eps 1.95
Trailing P E 13.020513
Trailing Peg Ratio 10.9115
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 23.02895
Two Hundred Day Average Change 2.3610497
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.10252529
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,413,024
Website https://www.harley-davidson.com
Zip 53,208