VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL)Digital Assets | Exchange Traded Fund | Cboe US
18.26 USD
+0.67
(3.809%)
⇧
(July 14, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT
The VanEck Bitcoin ETF presents a classic case of a speculative asset where the investment thesis relies entirely on the underlying commodity's trajectory rather than corporate fundamentals. Fundamentally, the entity offers zero dividends and no traditional earnings, making it unsuitable for income investors; its value is purely derived from the price of Bitcoin, which has delivered a massive 106% gain over the last year but remains volatile. Technically, the stock is trading well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a recent correction from its yearly highs, yet the options market tells a different story. Traders are aggressively buying call options, betting on a continuation of the bull run despite the recent pullback. This divergence suggests that while the price has cooled, the speculative appetite remains high. For a trader looking at a 3.5-star short-term rating, the setup is a high-risk, high-reward momentum play dependent on Bitcoin's next move, whereas the long-term rating stays neutral due to the inherent binary nature of the asset class and lack of intrinsic cash flows. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_104 ✓ | 0.091029 |
| AutoETS | 0.101597 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.101599 |
| MSTL | 0.101624 |
| AutoTheta | 0.109327 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_104
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 40% |
| H-stat | 1.73 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.057 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.41 |
As of July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily skewed toward bullish exposure, with open interest concentrated significantly in out-of-the-money calls across near-term and longer-dated expirations. While put volume exists, the open interest structure suggests a hedge against volatility rather than a bearish bet, as deep in-the-money puts show high open interest but low recent volume. The implied volatility surface reflects elevated uncertainty, particularly in the near term, but the positioning indicates a net directional bias toward upside moves.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| All Time High | 67.03 |
| All Time Low | 10.9425 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 7,400 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,192,370 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,271,563 |
| Average Volume | 1,271,563 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,192,370 |
| Beta3 Year | 0.0 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 14,700 |
| Category | Digital Assets |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Day High | 18.35 |
| Day Low | 17.97 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | BTS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 19.6256 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -1.3656006 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.06958261 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -46.632282 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 35.76 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -17.499998 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.48937356 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 16.4 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.8600006 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.113414675 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 16.4 - 35.76 |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,704,983,400,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | Cboe US |
| Fund Family | VanEck |
| Fund Inception Date | 1,704,326,400 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,024-01-11 |
| Language | en-US |
| Legal Type | Exchange Traded Fund |
| Long Business Summary | In seeking to achieve its investment objective, the trust will hold bitcoin and will value its shares daily based on the reported MarketVectorTM Bitcoin Benchmark Rate and process all creations and redemptions in transactions with authorized participants. |
| Long Name | VanEck Bitcoin ETF |
| Market | us_market |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_699879896 |
| Nav Price | 18.25 |
| Net Assets | 951,709,630.0 |
| Net Expense Ratio | 0.0 |
| Open | 18.08 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.020000458 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 0.10953153 |
| Pre Market Price | 18.28 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,784,111,646 |
| Previous Close | 17.59 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | ETF |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.67 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 3.80898 |
| Regular Market Day High | 18.35 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 17.97 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 17.97 - 18.35 |
| Regular Market Open | 18.08 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 17.59 |
| Regular Market Price | 18.26 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,784,059,200 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,320,589 |
| Short Name | VanEck Bitcoin Trust |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | HODL |
| Total Assets | 951,709,632 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Trailing Three Month Nav Returns | -13.60792 |
| Trailing Three Month Returns | -13.60792 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 23.4384 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -5.1784 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.22093658 |
| Type Disp | ETF |
| Volume | 1,320,589 |
| Yield | 0.0 |
| Ytd Return | -32.88781 |