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VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL)

Digital Assets | Exchange Traded Fund | Cboe US
18.26 USD +0.67 (3.809%) ⇧ (July 14, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:☆☆☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT

The VanEck Bitcoin ETF presents a classic case of a speculative asset where the investment thesis relies entirely on the underlying commodity's trajectory rather than corporate fundamentals. Fundamentally, the entity offers zero dividends and no traditional earnings, making it unsuitable for income investors; its value is purely derived from the price of Bitcoin, which has delivered a massive 106% gain over the last year but remains volatile. Technically, the stock is trading well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a recent correction from its yearly highs, yet the options market tells a different story. Traders are aggressively buying call options, betting on a continuation of the bull run despite the recent pullback. This divergence suggests that while the price has cooled, the speculative appetite remains high. For a trader looking at a 3.5-star short-term rating, the setup is a high-risk, high-reward momentum play dependent on Bitcoin's next move, whereas the long-term rating stays neutral due to the inherent binary nature of the asset class and lack of intrinsic cash flows.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL_104 ✓0.091029
AutoETS0.101597
AutoARIMA0.101599
MSTL0.101624
AutoTheta0.109327

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_104

Forecast Reliability
Score 40%
H-stat 1.73
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.057
Excess Kurtosis -1.41

As of July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily skewed toward bullish exposure, with open interest concentrated significantly in out-of-the-money calls across near-term and longer-dated expirations. While put volume exists, the open interest structure suggests a hedge against volatility rather than a bearish bet, as deep in-the-money puts show high open interest but low recent volume. The implied volatility surface reflects elevated uncertainty, particularly in the near term, but the positioning indicates a net directional bias toward upside moves.


Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 67.03
All Time Low 10.9425
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 7,400
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,192,370
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,271,563
Average Volume 1,271,563
Average Volume10Days 1,192,370
Beta3 Year 0.0
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 14,700
Category Digital Assets
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 18.35
Day Low 17.97
Dividend Yield 0.0
Esg Populated 0
Exchange BTS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 19.6256
Fifty Day Average Change -1.3656006
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.06958261
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -46.632282
Fifty Two Week High 35.76
Fifty Two Week High Change -17.499998
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.48937356
Fifty Two Week Low 16.4
Fifty Two Week Low Change 1.8600006
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.113414675
Fifty Two Week Range 16.4 - 35.76
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,704,983,400,000
Full Exchange Name Cboe US
Fund Family VanEck
Fund Inception Date 1,704,326,400
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Ipo Expected Date 2,024-01-11
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary In seeking to achieve its investment objective, the trust will hold bitcoin and will value its shares daily based on the reported MarketVectorTM Bitcoin Benchmark Rate and process all creations and redemptions in transactions with authorized participants.
Long Name VanEck Bitcoin ETF
Market us_market
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_699879896
Nav Price 18.25
Net Assets 951,709,630.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.0
Open 18.08
Pre Market Change 0.020000458
Pre Market Change Percent 0.10953153
Pre Market Price 18.28
Pre Market Time 1,784,111,646
Previous Close 17.59
Price Hint 2
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.67
Regular Market Change Percent 3.80898
Regular Market Day High 18.35
Regular Market Day Low 17.97
Regular Market Day Range 17.97 - 18.35
Regular Market Open 18.08
Regular Market Previous Close 17.59
Regular Market Price 18.26
Regular Market Time 1,784,059,200
Regular Market Volume 1,320,589
Short Name VanEck Bitcoin Trust
Source Interval 15
Symbol HODL
Total Assets 951,709,632
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns -13.60792
Trailing Three Month Returns -13.60792
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 23.4384
Two Hundred Day Average Change -5.1784
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.22093658
Type Disp ETF
Volume 1,320,589
Yield 0.0
Ytd Return -32.88781