Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)Industrials | Tools & Accessories | Cincinnati, United States | NasdaqGM
7.86 USD
+0.13
(1.682%)
⇧
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 4:42 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Hillman Solutions is currently broken by a severe multi-year structural decline. Despite a 'Buy' recommendation and a forward P/E that looks attractive in isolation, the stock has lost nearly 35% of its value over the last four years, with the last two annual periods showing negative returns. This persistent price erosion suggests the market sees fundamental deterioration that current earnings estimates cannot yet offset. The lack of any dividend history eliminates income appeal, leaving investors exposed to pure capital loss risk. While the company is expanding facilities and management is optimistic, the price action tells a different story: the business is failing to generate the growth required to justify its valuation. With analysts targeting $12 but the stock trading near its lows, there is a disconnect between consensus expectations and reality, but until the multi-year downtrend halts, the risk-reward profile remains skewed heavily against the buyer. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.067618 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.069456 |
| AutoETS | 0.069457 |
| MSTL | 0.069520 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 47% |
| H-stat | 0.14 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.348 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.83 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 66.804 |
| Revenue per Share | 7.922 |
| Market Cap | 1,542,207,488 |
| Trailing P/E | 43.67 |
| Forward P/E | 11.20 |
| Beta | 1.38 |
| Profit Margins | 2.30% |
| Website | https://www.hillmangroup.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 4:42 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioned for downside protection, with significant open interest in out-of-the-money puts expiring in August and October, while call activity is sparse and concentrated at lower strikes. Implied volatility is elevated for downside moves compared to upside, suggesting a market consensus of continued weakness rather than a speculative rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.0051479936 |
| Address1 | 1,280 Kemper Meadow Drive |
| All Time High | 13.46 |
| All Time Low | 6.02 |
| Ask | 10.08 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 5 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.8 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,619,560 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,532,765 |
| Average Volume | 1,532,765 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,619,560 |
| Beta | 1.381 |
| Bid | 5.87 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | 6.193 |
| City | Cincinnati |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 5 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 7.86 |
| Current Ratio | 2.95 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 8.26 |
| Day Low | 7.76 |
| Debt To Equity | 66.804 |
| Display Name | Hillman |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,846,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,846,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,787,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,787,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,787,200 |
| Ebitda | 251,462,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.16089001 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 9.253 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.489 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,326,795,520 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.58271 |
| Eps Forward | 0.70167 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 0.18 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NGM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fax | 800 713 9423 |
| Fifty Day Average | 7.6967 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.16330004 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.02121689 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -0.51479936 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 10.85 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -2.9900002 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.27557606 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 6.96 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.9000001 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.12931035 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 6.96 - 10.85 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,607,005,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 193,957,120 |
| Forward Eps | 0.70167 |
| Forward P E | 11.201847 |
| Free Cashflow | 24,466,876 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGM |
| Full Time Employees | 3,986 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.48391 |
| Gross Profits | 756,323,008 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.01039 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.0455 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 196,209,606 |
| Industry | Tools & Accessories |
| Industry Disp | Tools & Accessories |
| Industry Key | tools-accessories |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,766,793,600 |
| Long Business Summary | Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company offers automotive products, such as belts and chains, brake and fuel lines, and carburetor and throttles; clamps, clips, and couplers; spacers, bushings, and bearings; and thread repair, electrical, plugs, and wheel parts. It also provides fuses, breakers, and switches; cables and wires; grommets; light bulbs and indicators; sockets and adaptors; engraving products; fasteners, including anchors, bolts, drill bits, hurricanes, nails, pins, rings, rivets, screws, sockets, spacers, staples, threaded inserts and rods, ties, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and wood parts; and fluid flow components. In addition, the company offers hardware products comprising connections, caps and plugs, door and windows, fences, garage doors, gates, household, interiors, knobs and handles, magnets, rail, gangers, reinforcements, security, shims and wedges, and springs products; key accessories; markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes; fittings, connectors, torches, and burners liquefied petroleum gas products; and wall hangings consists of adhesives, frame hardware, hooks, kits, mirror, picture hanging, tool-free mounting, and wall hanging accessories. Further, it provides plumbing products; power tool accessories; rods, shapes, and sheets; and safety and security products. It offers its products under the Power Pro, All Points, OOK, Hardware Essentials, Fastening Systems, Paulin, The Steel Works, Deck Plus, Grease Monkey, Firm Grip, Magnifeye, True Grip, AWP, Shaded Eye, McGuire-Nicholas, Gorilla Grip, intex, Axxess+, resharp, minuteokay, OTR, Digz, Fas-n-Tite, Ozco, High & Mighty, Premium Defense, Keykrafter, KeyHero, Quick-Tag, TagWorks, and FIDO brand names. Hillman Solutions Corp. is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio. |
| Long Name | Hillman Solutions Corp. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 1,542,207,488 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_278350761 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,656,000 |
| Net Income To Common | 35,890,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,329,600 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 1,542,207,503 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 8 |
| Open | 7.79 |
| Operating Cashflow | 86,307,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.018660001 |
| Overall Risk | 5 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 513 851 4900 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.23000002 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 2.9262087 |
| Pre Market Price | 8.09 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,784,017,280 |
| Previous Close | 7.73 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 13.488699 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.2691749 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.9867261 |
| Profit Margins | 0.02296 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.733 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.75 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.13 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 1.68176 |
| Regular Market Day High | 8.26 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 7.76 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 7.76 - 8.26 |
| Regular Market Open | 7.79 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 7.73 |
| Regular Market Price | 7.86 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,801 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,647,083 |
| Return On Assets | 0.02875 |
| Return On Equity | 0.029930001 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.03 |
| Revenue Per Share | 7.922 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Industrials |
| Sector Disp | Industrials |
| Sector Key | industrials |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 196,209,606 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0229 |
| Shares Short | 4,499,851 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 4,347,715 |
| Short Name | Hillman Solutions Corp. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0232 |
| Short Ratio | 2.16 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | OH |
| Symbol | HLMN |
| Target High Price | 14.0 |
| Target Low Price | 10.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 12.0 |
| Target Median Price | 12.0 |
| Total Cash | 27,731,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.141 |
| Total Debt | 812,318,976 |
| Total Revenue | 1,562,953,984 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 0.18 |
| Trailing P E | 43.666664 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 8.653975 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.7939744 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.09174679 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,647,083 |
| Website | https://www.hillmangroup.com |
| Zip | 45,240 |