Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)Consumer Cyclical | Resorts & Casinos | Orlando, United States | NYSE
43.81 USD
-0.02
(-0.046%) ⇩
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 43.81 |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 4:58 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is a classic turnaround story with a heavy caveat regarding capital structure. Fundamentally, the business is showing signs of life with a 25% revenue rebound last year and a forward P/E of just 8x, which implies the market has priced in severe distress. However, the balance sheet remains precarious with a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 600% and negative free cash flow, meaning the company relies entirely on refinancing or equity raises to survive. The recent secondary public offering and debt restructuring confirm this fragility. Short-term, the stock is range-bound and lacks clear momentum, hovering near its 200-day average but failing to break key resistance. The statistical forecast offers no guidance, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings report. Long-term, the valuation looks attractive if the company can stabilize its debt load and return to positive cash flow, but the path is fraught with risk. The lack of a dividend yield eliminates any floor for investors seeking income. The primary thesis is a speculative bet on management successfully navigating the debt maturity wall to unlock the value of the Hilton brand portfolio. Until the balance sheet strengthens, this remains a high-risk, high-reward situation rather than a core holding. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.056048 |
| AutoETS | 0.056258 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.056449 |
| AutoTheta | 0.061356 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 45% |
| H-stat | 3.39 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.621 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.08 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 624.086 |
| Revenue per Share | 56.302 |
| Market Cap | 3,405,094,912 |
| Trailing P/E | 24.89 |
| Forward P/E | 7.84 |
| Beta | 1.52 |
| Profit Margins | 3.21% |
| Website | https://www.hiltongrandvacations.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 4:58 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant volatility rather than a specific directional move. Call volume is heavily skewed toward out-of-the-money strikes (55 and 60) for the January 2027 expiration, suggesting a bullish bet on a recovery or gap-up event. Conversely, put volume concentrates in the December 2026 expiration at the 50 strike, indicating a hedge against a failure to breach the psychological 50 barrier before year-end. The massive disparity in implied volatility (0.61 for Jan calls vs 0.0 for Jan puts) highlights a market pricing in asymmetric upside potential while ignoring downside tail risks for the long term.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.06248665 |
| Address1 | 6,355 MetroWest Boulevard |
| Address2 | Suite 180 |
| All Time High | 56.33 |
| All Time Low | 8.28 |
| Ask | 43.93 |
| Ask Size | 200 |
| Audit Risk | 7 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.4 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 915,700 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,225,703 |
| Average Volume | 1,225,703 |
| Average Volume10Days | 915,700 |
| Beta | 1.523 |
| Bid | 43.47 |
| Bid Size | 100 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | 14.125 |
| City | Orlando |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 4 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 43.81 |
| Current Ratio | 4.814 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 44.42 |
| Day Low | 43.71 |
| Debt To Equity | 624.086 |
| Display Name | Hilton Grand Vacations |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,416,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,416,400 |
| Earnings Growth | -0.4 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | -0.52 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,414,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,277,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,277,000 |
| Ebitda | 931,000,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.19792 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 11.946 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 2.364 |
| Enterprise Value | 11,122,095,104 |
| Eps Current Year | 4.77092 |
| Eps Forward | 5.58947 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.76 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 48.4872 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -4.6772003 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.09646258 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -6.248665 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 55.4 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -11.59 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.20920578 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 36.79 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 7.0200005 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.19081272 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 36.79 - 55.4 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,483,540,200,000 |
| Float Shares | 47,726,511 |
| Forward Eps | 5.58947 |
| Forward P E | 7.8379526 |
| Free Cashflow | -127,000,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 22,300 |
| Fullday Change | -0.0200005 |
| Fullday Change Percent | -0.0456319 |
| Fullday Price | 43.81 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | 0.24617 |
| Gross Profits | 1,158,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.020599999 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.08716 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 77,724,145 |
| Industry | Resorts & Casinos |
| Industry Disp | Resorts & Casinos |
| Industry Key | resorts-casinos |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment market and sells the VOIs, and source VOIs through fee-for-service agreements; and provides consumer financing and services loans. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment manages and operates the clubs which provides exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs, and provides ancillary services including food and beverage, retail and spa at timeshare properties. Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida. |
| Long Name | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 3,405,094,912 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_345409145 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | 151,000,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 3,406,649,275 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 11 |
| Open | 44.16 |
| Operating Cashflow | 463,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.12666 |
| Overall Risk | 4 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 407 613 3100 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 43.81 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,959,804 |
| Previous Close | 43.83 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 9.182716 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 3.101593 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.72387224 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0321 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.878 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.36364 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.0200005 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.0456319 |
| Regular Market Day High | 44.42 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 43.71 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 43.71 - 44.42 |
| Regular Market Open | 44.16 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 43.83 |
| Regular Market Price | 43.81 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,202 |
| Regular Market Volume | 568,775 |
| Return On Assets | 0.03348 |
| Return On Equity | 0.11456 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.062 |
| Revenue Per Share | 56.302 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20204377 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 6 |
| Shares Outstanding | 77,724,145 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0793 |
| Shares Short | 6,162,399 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 5,739,274 |
| Short Name | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1262 |
| Short Ratio | 5.28 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | FL |
| Symbol | HGV |
| Target High Price | 74.0 |
| Target Low Price | 46.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 55.63636 |
| Target Median Price | 51.0 |
| Total Cash | 290,000,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 3.731 |
| Total Debt | 7,850,999,808 |
| Total Revenue | 4,704,000,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.76 |
| Trailing P E | 24.892046 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 46.0098 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -2.1997986 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.047811523 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 568,775 |
| Website | https://www.hiltongrandvacations.com |
| Zip | 32,835 |