Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)Consumer Cyclical | Resorts & Casinos | Orlando, United States | NYSE
36.03 USD
+1.34
(3.863%)
⇧
(Oct. 15, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 9:26 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Hilton Grand Vacations is currently fractured by a severe disconnect between its valuation metrics and its operational reality. While the forward P/E of 6.5x suggests deep value, this is a misleading signal for a company generating negative free cash flow (-$127M) and suffering a 52% drop in quarterly earnings. The balance sheet is precarious, with debt-to-equity exceeding 600%, leaving little room for error in a cyclical industry. The long-term outlook remains neutral due to a lack of sustained growth; while the 8-year price window shows a slight net gain, the underlying business has been volatile, and the recent earnings collapse signals deteriorating fundamentals. Furthermore, the absence of any dividend history eliminates a key income component for defensive investors. Short-term, the sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish. The options chain reveals a distinct 'insurance' strategy with heavy put buying at the $50 level for December, implying traders expect a significant drop well before the current price of $34.53. This speculative positioning, combined with the weak statistical forecast and negative earnings momentum, suggests the market is pricing in further distress. The stock appears to be a value trap where the low price reflects genuine business deterioration rather than a margin of safety. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.234177 |
| AutoETS | 0.237105 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.237109 |
| AutoTheta | 0.243265 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 43% |
| H-stat | 5.96 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.242 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.02 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 624.086 |
| Revenue per Share | 56.302 |
| Market Cap | 2,800,400,896 |
| Trailing P/E | 20.47 |
| Forward P/E | 6.96 |
| Beta | 1.61 |
| Profit Margins | 3.21% |
| Website | https://www.hiltongrandvacations.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 9:26 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant downside protection rather than upside participation. Put open interest is heavily concentrated in the December 2026 expiration, with massive volume and open interest at the $50 strike, suggesting a fear of a major correction before year-end. Conversely, call activity is sparse and skewed toward distant strikes ($55-$70), indicating a lack of near-term bullish conviction despite the elevated implied volatility on those far-dated contracts.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.17210478 |
| Address1 | 6,355 MetroWest Boulevard |
| Address2 | Suite 180 |
| All Time High | 56.33 |
| All Time Low | 8.28 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 200 |
| Audit Risk | 6 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.4 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 832,890 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,082,410 |
| Average Volume | 1,082,410 |
| Average Volume10Days | 832,890 |
| Beta | 1.612 |
| Bid | 33.01 |
| Bid Size | 500 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | 14.125 |
| City | Orlando |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 4 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 36.03 |
| Current Ratio | 4.814 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 36.74 |
| Day Low | 35.26 |
| Debt To Equity | 624.086 |
| Display Name | Hilton Grand Vacations |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,793,278,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,793,278,800 |
| Earnings Growth | -0.4 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | -0.52 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,793,277,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,277,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,277,000 |
| Ebitda | 931,000,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.19792 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 11.297 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 2.236 |
| Enterprise Value | 10,517,400,576 |
| Eps Current Year | 4.81905 |
| Eps Forward | 5.17519 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.76 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 20 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 39.6424 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -3.6124 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.09112466 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -17.210478 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 55.4 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -19.370003 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.34963903 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 33.985 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 2.0449982 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.060173552 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 33.985 - 55.4 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,483,540,200,000 |
| Float Shares | 47,700,862 |
| Forward Eps | 5.17519 |
| Forward P E | 6.962063 |
| Free Cashflow | -127,000,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 22,300 |
| Fullday Change | 1.3400002 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 3.8627853 |
| Fullday Price | 36.03 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.24617 |
| Gross Profits | 1,158,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.020580001 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.08635 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 77,724,145 |
| Industry | Resorts & Casinos |
| Industry Disp | Resorts & Casinos |
| Industry Key | resorts-casinos |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates through two segments: Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment market and sells the VOIs, and source VOIs through fee-for-service agreements; and provides consumer financing and services loans. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment manages and operates the clubs which provides exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services, as well as engages in the rental of inventory made available due to ownership exchanges through its club programs, and provides ancillary services including food and beverage, retail and spa at timeshare properties. Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida. |
| Long Name | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 2,800,400,896 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_345409145 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | 151,000,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 2,766,979,562 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 11 |
| Open | 35.23 |
| Operating Cashflow | 463,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.12666 |
| Overall Risk | 4 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 407 613 3100 |
| Previous Close | 34.69 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 7.4765773 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 2.5507963 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.5953233 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0321 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.878 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.36364 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 1.34 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 3.86279 |
| Regular Market Day High | 36.74 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 35.26 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 35.26 - 36.74 |
| Regular Market Open | 35.23 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 34.69 |
| Regular Market Price | 36.03 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,094,402 |
| Regular Market Volume | 971,448 |
| Return On Assets | 0.03348 |
| Return On Equity | 0.11456 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.062 |
| Revenue Per Share | 56.302 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.16207206 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 6 |
| Shares Outstanding | 77,724,145 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.105 |
| Shares Short | 8,162,996 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 7,478,895 |
| Short Name | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1671 |
| Short Ratio | 7.03 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | FL |
| Symbol | HGV |
| Target High Price | 74.0 |
| Target Low Price | 39.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 52.72727 |
| Target Median Price | 51.0 |
| Total Cash | 290,000,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 3.731 |
| Total Debt | 7,850,999,808 |
| Total Revenue | 4,704,000,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.76 |
| Trailing P E | 20.47159 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 45.17055 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -9.1405525 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.20235646 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 971,448 |
| Website | https://www.hiltongrandvacations.com |
| Zip | 32,835 |